Could capital gains smooth a current account rebalancing?

A narrowing of the U.S. current account deficit through exchange rate movements is likely to entail a substantial depreciation of the dollar, as stressed in the widely cited contribution by Obstfeld and Rogoff (2005). We assess how the adjustment is affected by the high degree of international financial integration in the world economy. A growing body of research stresses the increasing leverage in international financial positions, with industrialized economies holding substantial and growing financial claims on each other. Exchange rate movements then leads to valuations effects as the currency compositions of a country's assets and liabilities are not matched. In particular, a dollar depreciation generates valuation gains for the U.S. by boosting the dollar value of the large amount of its foreign-currency denominated assets. We consider an adjustment scenario in which the U.S. net external debt is held constant. The key finding is that while the current account moves into balance, the pace of adjustment is smooth. Intuitively, the valuation gains stemming from the depreciation of the dollar allow the U.S. to finance ongoing, albeit shrinking, current account deficits. We find that the smooth pattern of adjustment is robust to alternative scenarios, although the ultimate movements in exchange rates are affected.Balance of trade ; Foreign exchange rates

Do Banks provision for bad loans in good times? empirical evidence and policy implications

Recent debate about the pro-cyclical effects of bank capital requirements, has ignored the important role that bank loan loss provisions play in the overall framework of minimum capital regulation. It is frequently observed that under-provisioning, due to inadequate assessment of expected credit losses, aggravates the negative effect of minimum capital requirements during recessions, because capital must absorb both expected, and unexpected losses. Moreover, when expected losses are properly reflected in lending rates, but not in provisioning practices, fluctuations in bank earnings magnify true oscillations in bank profitability. The relative agency problems faced by different stakeholders, may help explain the prevailing, and often unsatisfactory institutional arrangements. The authors test their hypotheses with a sample of 1,176 large commercial banks - 372 of them in non-G10 countries - for the period 1988-99. After controlling for different country-specific macroeconomic, and institutional features, they find robust evidence among G10 banks, of a positive association between loan loss provisions, and banks'pre-provision income. Such evidence is not confirmed for non-G10 banks, which on average, provision too little in good times, and are forced to increase provisions in bad times. The econometric evidence shows that the protection of outsiders'claims - the claims of minority shareholders in common law countries, and of fiscal authorities in countries with high public debt - on bank income, has negative effects on the level of bank provisions.International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Banks&Banking Reform,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Intermediation,Banks&Banking Reform,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Insurance&Risk Mitigation

Could capital gains smooth a current account rebalancing?

A narrowing of the U.S. current account deficit through exchange rate movements is likely to entail a substantial depreciation of the dollar, as stressed in research by Obstfeld and Rogoff. We assess how the adjustment is affected by the high degree of financial integration in the world economy. A growing body of research emphasizes the increasing leverage in international financial positions, with industrialized economies holding substantial and growing financial claims on each other. Exchange rate movements then lead to valuation effects as the currency composition of a country's assets and liabilities are not matched. In particular, a dollar depreciation generates valuation gains for the United States by boosting the dollar value of much of its foreign-currency-denominated assets. We consider an adjustment scenario in which the U.S. net external debt is held constant. The key finding is that as the current account moves into balance, the pace of adjustment is smooth. Intuitively, the valuation gains from the depreciation of the dollar allow the United States to finance ongoing, albeit shrinking, current account deficits. We find that the smooth pattern of adjustment is robust to alternative scenarios, although the ultimate movements in exchange rates will vary under different conditionscurrent account, exchange rates, global imbalances

Net Foreign Assets and the Exchange Rate: Redux Revived

We revisit Obstfeld and Rogoff's (1995) results on exchange rate dynamics in a two-country, monetary model with incomplete asset markets, stationary net foreign assets, and endogenous nominal interest rate setting a la Taylor (1993). Under flexible prices, the nominal exchange rate exhibits a unit root. However, today's exchange rate also depends on the stock of real net foreign assets accumulated in the previous period. The predictive power of net assets for the exchange rate is stronger the closer assets to non-stationary and the higher the degree of substitutability between domestic and foreign goods in consumption. When prices are sticky, the exchange rate still exhibits a unit root. The current level of the exchange rate depends on the past GDP differential, along with net foreign assets. Endogenous monetary policy and asset dynamics have consequences for exchange rate overshooting under both flexible and sticky prices.exchange rate, monetary policy, net foreign assets, overshooting

Measuring oil-price shocks using market-based information

We develop two measures of exogenous oil-price shocks for the period 1984 to 2006 based on market commentaries on daily oil-price fluctuations. Our measures are based on exogenous events that trigger substantial fluctuations in spot oil prices and are constructed to be free of endogenous and anticipatory movements. We find that the dynamic responses of output and prices implied by these measures are "well behaved." We also find that the response of output is larger than the one implied by a conventional measure of oil-price shocks proposed in the literature.Petroleum products - Prices ; Petroleum industry and trade

The quantitative role of capital-goods imports in U.S. growth

Over the last 40 years, an increasing share of U.S. aggregate E&S investment expenditure has been allocated to capital-goods imports. While capital-goods imports were only 3.5 percent of E&S investment in 1967, by 2008 their share had risen tenfold to 36 percent. The goal of this paper is to measure the contribution of capital-goods imports to growth in U.S. output per hour using a simple growth accounting exercise. We find that capital-goods imports have contributed 20 to 30 percent to growth in U.S. output per hour between 1967 and 2008. More importantly, we find that capital-goods imports have been an increasing source of growth for the US economy: the average contribution of capital-goods imports to growth in U.S .output per hour has increased noticeably since 1967.Imports ; Capital investments ; Productivity - United States ; Economic development

Exchange rate overshooting and the costs of floating

Currency crises are usually associated with large real depreciations. In some countries real depreciations are perceived to be very costly(''fear of floating''). In this paper we try to understand the reasons behind this fear. We first look at episodes of currency crises in the '90s and establish that countries entering a crisis with high levels of foreign debt tend to experience large real exchange rate overshooting (devaluation in addition of the long run equilibrium level) and large output contractions. We develop a model of currency crises that helps explain this evidence. The key element of the model is the presence of a margin constraint on the domestic country. Real devaluations, by reducing the value of domestic assets relative to international liabilities, make countries with high foreign debt more likely to hit the constraint. When countries hit the constraint they are forced to sell domestic assets and this causes a further devaluation of the currency (overshooting) and a reduction of their stock prices (overreaction). This fire sale can have a significant negative wealth effect. The model highlights a key tradeoff when considering fixed v/s flexible regime; a fixed exchange regime can, by avoiding exchange rate overshooting, mitigate the negative wealth effect but at the cost of additional distortions and output drops in the short run. There are plausible parameter values under which fixed exchange rates dominate flexibleBalance sheet effects, Currency Crises, Exchange rate policy

It does not occur by chance: a mediation model of the influence of workers' characteristics, work environment factors, and near misses on agricultural machinery-related accidents

Agriculture is among the most hazardous productive sectors, and farm machinery is a major source of injury. In the present study, a mediated model was used to test the role played by workers’ characteristics, work environment factors, and near misses in predicting agricultural machinery-related accidents in a sample of Italian users (n = 290). Hours worked per week (via the mediation of an adverse work environment) showed a positive association and years of work experience (via the mediation of risk perception) showed a negative association with the probability of being involved in a near miss, which in turn showed a positive association with the probability of being involved in a machinery-related accident. Implications for tailored preventive interventions are discussed

Falls From Agricultural Machinery: Risk Factors Related to Work Experience, Worked Hours, and Operators' Behavior

Objective: We investigated the risk factors for falls when egressing from agricultural tractors, analyzing the role played by worked hours, work experience, operators' behavior, and near misses. Background: Many accidents occur within the agricultural sector each year. Among them, falls while dismounting the tractor represent a major source of injuries. Previous studies pointed out frequent hazardous movements and incorrect behaviors adopted by operators to exit the tractor cab. However, less is known about the determinants of such behaviors. In addition, near misses are known to be important predictors of accidents, but they have been under-investigated in the agricultural sector in general and as concerns falls in particular. Method: A questionnaire assessing dismounting behaviors, previous accidents and near misses, and participants' relation with work was administered to a sample of Italian tractor operators (n = 286). Results: A mediated model showed that worked hours increase unsafe behaviors, whereas work experience decreases them. Unsafe behaviors in turn show a positive association with accidents, via the mediation of near misses. Conclusions: We gave a novel contribution to the knowledge of the chain of events leading to fall accidents in the agricultural sector, which is one of the most hazardous industries. Applications: Besides tractor design improvements, preventive training interventions may focus on the redesign of the actual working strategies and the adoption of engaging training methods in the use of machinery to optimize the learning of safety practices and safe behavior

GCNH: A Simple Method For Representation Learning On Heterophilous Graphs

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are well-suited for learning on homophilous graphs, i.e., graphs in which edges tend to connect nodes of the same type. Yet, achievement of consistent GNN performance on heterophilous graphs remains an open research problem. Recent works have proposed extensions to standard GNN architectures to improve performance on heterophilous graphs, trading off model simplicity for prediction accuracy. However, these models fail to capture basic graph properties, such as neighborhood label distribution, which are fundamental for learning. In this work, we propose GCN for Heterophily (GCNH), a simple yet effective GNN architecture applicable to both heterophilous and homophilous scenarios. GCNH learns and combines separate representations for a node and its neighbors, using one learned importance coefficient per layer to balance the contributions of center nodes and neighborhoods. We conduct extensive experiments on eight real-world graphs and a set of synthetic graphs with varying degrees of heterophily to demonstrate how the design choices for GCNH lead to a sizable improvement over a vanilla GCN. Moreover, GCNH outperforms state-of-the-art models of much higher complexity on four out of eight benchmarks, while producing comparable results on the remaining datasets. Finally, we discuss and analyze the lower complexity of GCNH, which results in fewer trainable parameters and faster training times than other methods, and show how GCNH mitigates the oversmoothing problem.Comment: Accepted at 2023 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN