Redistribution or Education? The Political Economy of the Social Race

In an overlapping generations model with two social classes, rich and poor, parents of the different social classes vote on two issues: redistributive policies for them and education investment for their children. Public education is the engine for growth through its effect on human capital; but it is also the vehicle through which children born to poor families may exchange their positions with children born to rich families. This is because education reduces the probability of a mismatch, i.e. individuals with low talent but coming from rich families being placed in jobs which should be reserved to people with high talent (and vice-versa). We find a political economy equilibrium of the voting game using probabilistic voting. When the poor are more politically influential, the economy is characterized by higher levels of education, growth and social mobility than under political regimes supported by the rich; pre-tax inequality is greater in the former case, but post-tax is lower.social mobility, talents’ mismatch, probabilistic voting

Coordination in Networks Formation: Experimental Evidence on Learning and Salience

We present experiments on repeated non-cooperative network formation games, based on Bala and Goyal (2000). We treat the one-way and the two-ways flow models, each for high and low link costs. The models show both multiple equilibria and coordination problems. We conduct experiments under various conditions which control for salient labeling and learning dynamics. Contrary to previous experiments, we find that coordination on non-empty Strict Nash equilibria is not an easy task for subjects to achieve, even in the mono-directional model where the Strict Nash equilibria is a wheel. We find that salience significantly helps coordination, but only when subjects are pre-instructed to think of the wheel network as a reasonable way to play the networking game. Evidence on learning behavior provides support for subjects choosing strategies consistent with various learning rules, which include as the main ones Reinforcement and Fictitious Play.Experiments, Networks, Behavioral game theory, Salience, Learning dynamics

Expectations and perceived causality in fiscal policy: an experimental analysis using real world data

We generate observable expectations about fiscal variables through laboratory experiments using real world data from several European countries as stimuli.We estimate an econometric model of individual expectations for fiscal policy, which nests various theories of expectations-forming and encompasses both micro- and macro- economic lines of research on fiscal policy. Agents' expectations are found neither to be consistent with rational nor with purely adaptive expectations. Expectations follow an augmented-adaptive scheme, which embodies the "spend and tax hypothesis" on the relationship between taxes and expenditure to a greater extent than in real world data. We relate this findings to current research on the effects of fiscal policy. Methodological implications of the present approach for experiments in macroeconomics are also discussed.Experiments, fiscal policy, expectations, causality, cointegration, panel data

A re-examination of the algebraic properties of the AHP as a ratio-scaling technique

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) ratio-scaling approach is re-examined in view of the recent developments in mathematical psychology based on the so-called separable representations. The study highlights the distortions in the estimates based on the maximum eigenvalue method used in the AHP distinguishing the contributions due to random noises from the effects due to the nonlinearity of the subjective weighting function of separable representations. The analysis is based on the second order expansion of the Perron eigenvector and Perron eigenvalue in reciprocally symmetric matrices with perturbations. The asymptotic distributions of the Perron eigenvector and Perron eigenvalue are derived and related to the eigenvalue-based index of cardinal consistency used in the AHP. The results show the limits of using the latter index as a rule to assess the quality of the estimates of a ratio scale. The AHP method to estimate the ratio scales is compared with the classical ratio magnitude approach used in psychophysics.Separable representations, reciprocally symmetric matrices, consistency indexes.

The expectations view on fiscal policy : an experiment using real world data

To understand the effect of fiscal policy on the private sector we have to comprehend how expectations about fiscal variables are formed. However, little is known about the way people form expectations about fiscal variables: no undercutting theory exists, not to say empirical evidence. The problem is that “expectations are unobservable” (Bertola and Drazen [BD93, p.16]). We generate observable expectations using a combination of laboratory experiments and real world data from several European countries. Based upon these observable expectations we develop a model of formation of expectations. We fit real world data and study the effect of fiscal policies. We show that we can study the relationship between private consumption and government consumption

Why do monetary policies matter? : An experimental study of saving and inflation in an overlapping generations model

We study experiments of an overlapping generations model where inflation is determined by the monetary policy and by the amount of average saving within each period. We use a new experimental setup that allows us to observe more details of the process of expectation forming and separate this process from the actual saving process. In contrast to experimental findings by Lim, Prescott, Sunder; Marimon, Spear, Sunder; and Marimon, Sunder we find that (1) agents do not form first-order adaptive expectations; (2) subjects ‘over-save’ for precautionary reasons; as a result (3) the so-called Friedman conjecture holds, i.e. monetary policies which are equivalent in static equilibrium exhibit different levels and different volatility of inflation in the experiment. This may generate important policy trade-offs between monetary regimes. We discuss our findings and relate them to current research on adaptive learning and the role it may have in ranking alternative monetary policies

Nuclear quantum effects in ab initio dynamics: theory and experiments for lithium imide

Owing to their small mass, hydrogen atoms exhibit strong quantum behavior even at room temperature. Including these effects in first principles calculations is challenging, because of the huge computational effort required by conventional techniques. Here we present the first ab-initio application of a recently-developed stochastic scheme, which allows to approximate nuclear quantum effects inexpensively. The proton momentum distribution of lithium imide, a material of interest for hydrogen storage, was experimentally measured by inelastic neutron scattering experiments and compared with the outcome of quantum thermostatted ab initio dynamics. We obtain favorable agreement between theory and experiments for this purely quantum mechanical property, thereby demonstrating that it is possible to improve the modelling of complex hydrogen-containing materials without additional computational effort

Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? : Experiments with real world and lab data

We generate observable expectations about fiscal variables through laboratory experiments using real world data from several European countries as stimuli. We compare a VAR model of expectations for data which is presented in a fiscal frame with one for neutrally presented data. We measure the degree to which participants use fiscal data for their forecasts. Agents' expectations are found neither to be consistent with rational nor with purely adaptive expectations but, instead, follow an augmented-adaptive scheme. Methodological implications of the present approach for experiments in macroeconomics are also discussed