ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KONSUMSI DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM) PERIODE TAHUN 1994.1–2005.4

The aim of the implementation of this research was to know whether the national income, the interest rate of the fixed deposit, and the interest rate of credit had the influence that was significant or not towards consumption in Indonesia, and whether being gotten by long-term and short relations towards consumption. The methodology that was utilised in this research was the Error Correction Model method (ECM) that from the OLS method, with before carried out steps as follows, that is the test, the integration test and the test of the co-integration approach of the unit root. And the data that was used in this research was the secondary data in a kwartalan manner in the period 1994:1 up to 2005:4. Was based on results of the research that was carried out, then could be concluded that results of the test of the unit root, showed all variable was not yet stationary and just was stationary in the level test of the integration. While results of the co-integration test showed the stationary consumption model so as to be able to be carried out by the test of ECM. And the results of the Error Correction Model test (ECM) showed that in the long term the national income variable had the influence that was significant towards consumption. The interest rate of the Fixed Deposit in the long term and short-term did not have the influence on consumption. The interest rate of Credit in the long term and short-term also did not have the influence that was significant towards consumption.Keywords :Real Consumption, Real GDP, Deposit Interest Rate, Credit Interest

Analisis Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Konsumsi Di Indonesia Menggunakan Error Correction Model (ECM) Periode Tahun 1994.1–2005.4

The aim of the implementation of this research was to know whether the national income, the interest rate of the fixed deposit, and the interest rate of credit had the influence that was significant or not towards consumption in Indonesia, and whether being gotten by long-term and short relations towards consumption. The methodology that was utilised in this research was the Error Correction Model method (ECM) that from the OLS method, with before carried out steps as follows, that is the test, the integration test and the test of the co-integration approach of the unit root. And the data that was used in this research was the secondary data in a kwartalan manner in the period 1994:1 up to 2005:4. Was based on results of the research that was carried out, then could be concluded that results of the test of the unit root, showed all variable was not yet stationary and just was stationary in the level test of the integration. While results of the co-integration test showed the stationary consumption model so as to be able to be carried out by the test of ECM. And the results of the Error Correction Model test (ECM) showed that in the long term the national income variable had the influence that was significant towards consumption. The interest rate of the Fixed Deposit in the long term and short-term did not have the influence on consumption. The interest rate of Credit in the long term and short-term also did not have the influence that was significant towards consumption

Influence of Genetic Risk Factors on Coronary Heart Disease Occurrence in Afro-Caribbeans

Background Despite excessive rates of cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes, and obesity, Afro-Caribbeans have lower mortality rates from coronary heart disease (CHD) than do whites. This study evaluated the association of genetic risk markers previously identified in whites and CHD in Afro-Caribbeans. Methods We studied 537 Afro-Caribbean individuals (178 CHD cases and 359 controls) who were genotyped for 19 CHD-related single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A genetic risk score (GRS) incorporating the 19 SNPs was calculated. These participants were compared with 1360 white individuals from the Second Northwick Park Heart Study. Results In Afro-Caribbeans, patients with CHD had higher rates of hypertension (78.7% vs 30.1%), hypercholesterolemia (52.8% vs 15.0%), and diabetes (53.9% vs 14.8%) and were more often men (64.0% vs 43.7%) and smokers (27.5% vs 13.4%) compared with non-CHD controls (all P < 0.001). The GRS was higher in Afro-Caribbeans with CHD than in those without CHD (13.90 vs 13.17; P < 0.001) and was significantly associated with CHD after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, with an odds ratio of 1.40 (95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.80) per standard deviation change. There were significant differences in allelic distributions between the 2 ethnic groups for 14 of the 19 SNPs. The GRS was substantially lower in Afro-Caribbean controls compared with white controls (13.17 vs 16.59; P < 0.001). Conclusions This study demonstrates that a multilocus GRS composed of 19 SNPs associated with CHD in whites is a strong predictor of the disease in Afro-Caribbeans. The differences in CHD occurrence between Afro-Caribbeans and whites might be a result of significant discrepancies in common gene variant distribution

Estimating the Risk-Adjusted Capital is an Affair in the Tails

Abstract (Re)insurance companies need to model their liabilities&apos; portfolio to compute the risk-adjusted capital (RAC) needed to support their business. The RAC depends on both the distribution and the dependence functions that are applied among the risks in a portfolio. We investigate the impact of those assumptions on an important concept for (re)insurance industries: the diversification gain. Several copulas are considered in order to focus on the role of dependencies. To be consistent with the frameworks of both Solvency II and the Swiss Solvency Test, we deal with two risk measures: the Value-at-Risk and the expected shortfall. We highlight the behavior of different capital allocation principles according to the dependence assumptions and the choice of the risk measure

Does the world need a scientific society for research on how to improve healthcare?

In this editorial, we reflect on the arguments for starting a scientific society focused on research on how to improve healthcare. This society would take an inclusive approach to what constitutes healthcare. For instance, it should include mental health healthcare, treatment for substance abuse, the work of allied health professions, and preventive healthcare. The society would be open to researchers from all traditions. Thus, we take an inclusive approach to what constitutes scientific research, as long as it uses rigorous methods, is focused on improving healthcare, and aims at knowledge that can be transferred across settings. The society would primarily target scientific researchers but would invite others with an interest in this area of research, regardless of their discipline, position, field of application, or group affiliation (e.g., improvement science, behavioral medicine, knowledge translation). A society would need fruitful collaboration with related societies and organizations, which may include having combined meetings. Special links may be developed with one or more journals. A website to provide information on relevant resources, events, and training opportunities is another key activity. It would also provide a voice for the field at funding agencies, political arenas, and similar institutions. An organizational structure and financial resources are required to develop and run these activities. Our aim is to start an international debate, to discover if we can establish a shared vision across academics and stakeholders engaged with creating scientific knowledge on how to improve healthcare. We invite readers to express their views in the online questionnaire accessed by following the URL link provided at the end of the editorial

A new rhynchocephalian from the late jurassic of Germany with a dentition that is unique amongst tetrapods.

Rhynchocephalians, the sister group of squamates (lizards and snakes), are only represented by the single genus Sphenodon today. This taxon is often considered to represent a very conservative lineage. However, rhynchocephalians were common during the late Triassic to latest Jurassic periods, but rapidly declined afterwards, which is generally attributed to their supposedly adaptive inferiority to squamates and/or Mesozoic mammals, which radiated at that time. New finds of Mesozoic rhynchocephalians can thus provide important new information on the evolutionary history of the group. A new fossil relative of Sphenodon from the latest Jurassic of southern Germany, Oenosaurus muehlheimensis gen. et sp. nov., presents a dentition that is unique amongst tetrapods. The dentition of this taxon consists of massive, continuously growing tooth plates, probably indicating a crushing dentition, thus representing a previously unknown trophic adaptation in rhynchocephalians. The evolution of the extraordinary dentition of Oenosaurus from the already highly specialized Zahnanlage generally present in derived rhynchocephalians demonstrates an unexpected evolutionary plasticity of these animals. Together with other lines of evidence, this seriously casts doubts on the assumption that rhynchocephalians are a conservative and adaptively inferior lineage. Furthermore, the new taxon underlines the high morphological and ecological diversity of rhynchocephalians in the latest Jurassic of Europe, just before the decline of this lineage on this continent. Thus, selection pressure by radiating squamates or Mesozoic mammals alone might not be sufficient to explain the demise of the clade in the Late Mesozoic, and climate change in the course of the fragmentation of the supercontinent of Pangaea might have played a major role

Distinctive waves of innate immune response in the retina in experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis

Neurodegeneration mediates neurological disability in inflammatory demyelinating diseases of the CNS. The role of innate immune cells in mediating this damage has remained controversial with evidence for destructive and protective effects. This has complicated efforts to develop treatment. The time sequence and dynamic evolution of the opposing functions are especially unclear. Given limits of in vivo monitoring in human diseases such as multiple sclerosis (MS), animal models are warranted to investigate the association and timing of innate immune activation with neurodegeneration. Using noninvasive in vivo retinal imaging of experimental autoimmune encephalitis (EAE) in CX3CR1GFP/+–knock-in mice followed by transcriptional profiling, we are able to show 2 distinct waves separated by a marked reduction in the number of innate immune cells and change in cell morphology. The first wave is characterized by an inflammatory phagocytic phenotype preceding the onset of EAE, whereas the second wave is characterized by a regulatory, antiinflammatory phenotype during the chronic stage. Additionally, the magnitude of the first wave is associated with neuronal loss. Two transcripts identified — growth arrest–specific protein 6 (GAS6) and suppressor of cytokine signaling 3 (SOCS3) — might be promising targets for enhancing protective effects of microglia in the chronic phase after initial injury

Evolution of African cassava mosaic virus by recombination between bipartite and monopartite begomoviruses

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cassava mosaic disease (CMD) is a major constraint on cassava cultivation in Africa. The disease is endemic and is caused by seven distinct cassava mosaic geminiviruses (CMGs), some of them including several variants.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>From cassava leaf samples presenting CMD symptoms collected in Burkina Faso, four DNA-A begomovirus components were cloned and sequenced, showing 99.9% nucleotide identity among them. These isolates are most closely related to <it>African cassava mosaic virus </it>(ACMV) but share less than 89% nucleotide identity (taxonomic threshold) with any previously described begomovirus. A DNA-B genomic component, sharing 93% nucleotide identity with DNA-B of ACMV, was also characterized. Since all genomic components have a typical genome organization of Old World bipartite begomoviruses, this new species was provisionally named African cassava mosaic Burkina Faso virus (ACMBFV). Recombination analysis of the new virus demonstrated an interspecies recombinant origin, with major parents related to West African isolates of ACMV, and minor parents related to <it>Tomato leaf curl Cameroon virus </it>and <it>Cotton leaf curl Gezira virus</it>.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This is the first report of an ACMV-like recombinant begomovirus arisen by interspecific recombination between bipartite and monopartite African begomoviruses.</p

An Insertion Sequence-Dependent Plasmid Rearrangement in Aeromonas salmonicida Causes the Loss of the Type Three Secretion System

Aeromonas salmonicida, a bacterial fish pathogen, possesses a functional Type Three Secretion System (TTSS), which is essential for its virulence. The genes for this system are mainly located in a single region of the large pAsa5 plasmid. Bacteria lose the TTSS region from this plasmid through rearrangements when grown in stressful growth conditions. The A. salmonicida genome is rich in insertion sequences (ISs), which are mobile DNA elements that can cause DNA rearrangements in other bacterial species. pAsa5 possesses numerous ISs. Three IS11s from the IS256 family encircle the rearranged regions. To confirm that these IS11s are involved in pAsa5 rearrangements, 26 strains derived from strain A449 and two Canadian isolates (01-B526 and 01-B516) with a pAsa5 rearrangement were tested using a PCR approach to determine whether the rearrangements were the result of an IS11-dependent process. Nine out of the 26 strains had a positive PCR result, suggesting that the rearrangement in these strains were IS-dependent. The PCR analysis showed that all the rearrangements in the A449-derived strains were IS11-dependent process while the rearrangements in 01-B526 and 01-B516 could only be partially coupled to the action of IS11. Unidentified elements that affect IS-dependent rearrangements may be present in 01-B526 and 01-B516. Our results suggested that pAsa5 rearrangements involve IS11. This is the first study showing that ISs are involved in plasmid instability in A. salmonicida