Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund

We present stochastic forecasts of the Social Security trust fund by modeling key demographic and economic variables as historical time series, and using the fitted models to generate computer simulations of future fund performance. We evaluate several plans for achieving long-term solvency by raising the normal retirement age (NRA), increasing taxes, or investing some portion of the fund in the stock market. Stochastic population trajectories by age and sex are generated using the Lee-Carter and Lee- Tuljapurkar mortality and fertility models. Interest rates, wage growth and equities returns are modeled as vector autoregressive processes. With the exception of mortality, central tendencies are constrained to the Intermediate assumptions of the 2002 Trustees Report. Combining population forecasts with forecasted per-capita tax and benefit profiles by age and sex, we obtain inflows to and outflows from the fund over time, resulting in stochastic fund trajectories and distributions. Under current legislation, we estimate the chance of insolvency by 2038 to be 50%, although the expected fund balance stays positive until 2041. An immediate 2% increase in the payroll tax rate from 12.4% to 14.4% sustains a positive expected fund balance until 2078, with a 50% chance of solvency through 2064. Investing 60% of the fund in the S&P 500 by 2015 keeps the expected fund balance positive until 2060, with a 50% chance of solvency through 2042. An increase in the NRA to age 69 by 2024 keeps the expected fund balance positive until 2047, with a 50% chance of solvency through 2041. A combination of raising the payroll tax to 13.4%, increasing the NRA to 69 by 2024, and investing 25% of the fund in equities by 2015 keeps the expected fund balance positive past 2101 with a 50% chance of solvency through 2077.

Extending Producer Responsibility: An Evaluation Framework for Product Take-Back Policies

Manufacturers are increasingly being required to adhere to product take-back regulations that require them to manage their products at the end of life. Such regulations seek to internalize products' entire life cycle costs into market prices, with the ultimate objective of reducing their environmental burden. This article provides a framework to evaluate the potential for take-back regulations to actually lead to reduced environmental impacts and to stimulate product design changes. It describes trade-offs associated with several major policy decisions, including whether to hold firms physically or financially responsible for the recovery of their products, when to impose recycling fees, whether to include disposal and hazardous substance bans, and whether to mandate product design features to foster reuse and recycling of components and materials. The framework also addresses policy elements that can significantly affect the cost efficiency and occupational safety hazards of end-of-life product recovery operations. The evaluation framework is illustrated with examples drawn from take-back regulations promulgated in Europe, Japan, and the United States governing waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE).

The flavour singlet mesons in QCD

We study the flavour singlet mesons from first principles using lattice QCD. We explore the splitting between flavour singlet and non-singlet for vector and axial mesons as well as the more commonly studied cases of the scalar and pseudoscalar mesons.Comment: 12 pages, LATEX, 4 ps figure

Platelet-Rich Plasma Injection With Percutaneous Needling for Recalcitrant Lateral Epicondylitis: Comparison of Tenotomy and Fenestration Techniques.

Background: Recalcitrant lateral epicondylitis (LE) is a common debilitating condition, with numerous treatment options of varying success. An injection of platelet-rich plasma (PRP) has been shown to improve LE, although it is unclear whether the method of needling used in conjunction with a PRP injection is of clinical importance. Purpose: To determine whether percutaneous needle tenotomy is superior to percutaneous needle fenestration when each is combined with a PRP injection for the treatment of recalcitrant LE. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A total of 93 patients with recalcitrant LE were treated with a PRP injection and percutaneous needle fenestration (n = 45) or percutaneous needle tenotomy (n = 48) over a 5-year study interval. Preoperative patient data, including visual analog scale for pain (VAS-P), Quick Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (QuickDASH), and Patient-Rated Tennis Elbow Evaluation (PRTEE) scores and grip strength, were obtained from a chart review and compared with postoperative values obtained prospectively. Secondary outcomes included the incidence of complications, need for additional interventions, return to work, and patient satisfaction. Results: At a mean follow-up of 40 months, significant improvements in VAS-P (mean, -6.1; 95% CI, -6.8 to -5.5; P \u3c .0001), QuickDASH (mean, -46; 95% CI, -52 to -40; P \u3c .0001), and PRTEE (mean, -57; 95% CI, -64 to -50; P \u3c .0001) scores and grip strength (mean, +6.1 kg; 95% CI, 4.9 to 7.3; P \u3c .0001) were observed across the entire study cohort, with no significant differences noted between the fenestration and tenotomy groups. Nine of 45 patients (22%) underwent additional procedures to treat recurrent symptoms in the fenestration group compared with 5 of 48 patients (10%) in the tenotomy group (P = .05). No complications occurred in any patients, and no patients expressed dissatisfaction with their treatment course. Conclusion: A PRP injection with concomitant percutaneous needling is an effective treatment for recalcitrant LE, with sustained improvements in pain, strength, and function demonstrated at a mean follow-up of longer than 3 years. Although the method of concomitant needling does not appear to have a significant effect on treatment outcomes, more aggressive needle tenotomy is less likely to require conversion to open tenotomy than needle fenestration in the short term to midterm

Structural Effects of Small Molecules on Phospholipid Bilayers Investigated by Molecular Simulations

We summarize and compare recent Molecular Dynamics simulations on the interactions of dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine (DPPC) bilayers in the liquid crystalline phase with a number of small molecules including trehalose, a disaccharide of glucose, alcohols, and dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO). The sugar molecules tend to stabilize the structure of the bilayer as they bridge adjacent lipid headgroups. They do not strongly change the structure of the bilayer. Alcohols and DMSO destabilize the bilayer as they increase its area per molecule in the bilayer plane and decrease the order parameter. Alcohols have a stronger detrimental effect than DMSO. The observables which we compare are the area per molecule in the plane of the bilayer, the membrane thickness, and the NMR order parameter of DPPC hydrocarbon tails. The area per molecule and the order parameter are very well correlated whereas the bilayer thickness is not necessarily correlated with them.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, accepted to Fluid Phase Equilibri

Absolute rate of the reaction of hydrogen atoms with ozone from 219-360 K

Absolute rate constants for the reaction of atomic hydrogen with ozone were obtained over the temperature range 219-360 K by the flash photolysis-resonance fluorescence technique. The results can be expressed in Arrhenius form by K = (1.33 plus or minus 0.32)x10 to the minus 10 power exp (-449 plus or minus 58/T) cu cm/molecule/s (two standard deviations). The present work is compared to two previous determinations and is discussed theoretically

Absolute rate of the reaction of bromine atoms with ozone from 200-360 K

The rate constant for the reaction Br + O3 yields BrO + O2 was measured from 200 to 360 K by the technique of flash photolysis coupled to time resolved detection of bromine atoms by resonance fluorescence (FP-RF). Br atoms were produced by the flash photolysis of CH3Br at lambda 165nm.O3 was monitored continuously under reaction conditions by absorption at 253.7 nm. At each of five temperatures the results were independent of substantial variations in O3, total pressure and limited variations in flash intensity. The measured rate constants obeyed the Arrhenius expression, where the error quoted is two standard deviations. Results are compared with previous determinations which employed the discharge flow-mass spectrometric technique

Yuccas (Agavaceae) of the International Four Corners: Southwestern USA and Northwestern Mexico

Yuccas (Yucca, Agavaceae) are an easily recognizable constituent of the vegetation of the International Four Corners; an area made up of portions of Arizona, New Mexico, Sonora and Chihuahua. We recognize three species as native to the region, Yucca baccata, Y. elata and Y. madrensis, together with interspecific hybrids, and document for the first time naturally occurring intersectional hybridization between baccate-fruited (sect. Yucca) and capsular-fruited (sect. Chaenocarpa) species. We examine the reproductive barriers to hybridization operating within the genus, i.e., spatial, temporal and ethological, and we consider circumstances that may have been responsible for the production and widespread distribution of hybrids in the IFC. These include establishment of sympatry, pollinator biology, founding hybrids and human activities. We also reflect on the present situation regarding sexual reproduction in species of Yucca in the Southwest