How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-Price Bubbles?

We present a simple macroeconomic model that includes a role for an asset-price bubble. We then derive optimal monetary policy settings for two policymakers: a skeptic, for whom the best forecast of future asset prices is the current price; and an activist, whose policy recommendations take into account the complete stochastic implications of the bubble. We show that the activist’s recommendations depend sensitively on the detailed stochastic properties of the bubble. In some circumstances the activist clearly recommends tighter policy than the skeptic, but in others the appropriate recommendation is to be looser. Our results highlight the stringent informational requirements inherent in an activist policy approach to handling asset-price bubbles.

How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-price Bubbles?

We present a simple model of the macroeconomy that includes a role for an asset-price bubble, and derive optimal monetary policy settings for two policy-makers. The first policy-maker, a sceptic, does not attempt to forecast the future possible paths for the asset-price bubble when setting policy. The second policy-maker, an activist, takes into account the complete stochastic implications of the bubble when setting policy. We examine the optimal policy recommendations of these two policy-makers across a range of plausible assumptions about the bubble. We show that the optimal monetary policy recommendations of the activist depend on the detailed stochastic properties of the bubble. There are some circumstances in which the activist clearly recommends tighter policy than that of the sceptic, while in other cases, the appropriate recommendation is to be looser than the sceptic. Other things equal, the case for ‘leaning against’ a bubble with monetary policy is stronger the lower the probability of the bubble bursting of its own accord, the larger the efficiency losses associated with big bubbles, and the higher the assumed impact of monetary policy on the bubble process.optimal monetary policy; asset-price bubble

Survival and Home Range Estimates of Pen-Raised Northern Bobwhites in Buffer Strip and Non-Buffer Strip Habitats

We investigated the effect of agricultural buffer strips on survival and home range estimates of pen-raised northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) at Tudor Farms on the Eastern Shore of Maryland. In September 2000 we released groups of bobwhites into 9 buffer strip (treatment) areas and 9 non-buffer strip (control) areas among 11 agricultural farms. Each group consisted of 4 radiomarked bobwhites and 26 non-radiomarked bobwhites. To maintain contact with the established coveys, additional radiomarked bobwhites (n = 177) were introduced into the coveys as radiomarked birds died. Survival for bobwhites released in buffer strip areas was lower (P \u3c 0.001) than survival in non-buffer strip areas. None of the radiomarked bobwhites released in the buffer strip areas survived past 27 weeks, whereas 11% of radiomarked bobwhites in non-buffer strip areas survived to 27 weeks and 1 bird survived to 41 weeks. Predation was the primary mortality factor (88%), followed by unknown causes (7%), stress (2%), hunting (2%), and road kill (1%). Mean fall and winter home range (95% minimum convex polygon) for 21 bobwhite coveys was 24.2 +- 3.5 ha, ranging from 1.7 to 65.8 ha. Home range areas of bobwhite coveys in buffer strips (n = 12, x¯ +- 15.0 2.7 ha) was significantly smaller (P = 0.002) than non-buffer strip coveys (n = 9, x¯ = 36.4 +- 4.9 ha). We conclude that the smaller home ranges in buffer strip areas seem to indicate better habitat quality; however, high mortality rates of pen-raised bobwhites limited our ability to confirm this

How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-Price Bubbles?

We present a simple macroeconomic model that includes a role for an asset-price bubble. We then derive optimal monetary policy settings for two policymakers: a skeptic, for whom the best forecast of future asset prices is the current price; and an activist, whose policy recommendations take into account the complete stochastic implications of the bubble. We show that the activist’s recommendations depend sensitively on the detailed stochastic properties of the bubble. In some circumstances the activist clearly recommends tighter policy than the skeptic, but in others the appropriate recommendation is to be looser. Our results highlight the stringent informational requirements inherent in an activist policy approach to handling asset-price bubbles

Growth of (110) Diamond using pure Dicarbon

We use a density-functional based tight-binding method to study diamond growth steps by depositing dicarbon species onto a hydrogen-free diamond (110) surface. Subsequent C_2 molecules are deposited on an initially clean surface, in the vicinity of a growing adsorbate cluster, and finally, near vacancies just before completion of a full new monolayer. The preferred growth stages arise from C_2n clusters in near ideal lattice positions forming zigzag chains running along the [-110] direction parallel to the surface. The adsorption energies are consistently exothermic by 8--10 eV per C_2, depending on the size of the cluster. The deposition barriers for these processes are in the range of 0.0--0.6 eV. For deposition sites above C_2n clusters the adsorption energies are smaller by 3 eV, but diffusion to more stable positions is feasible. We also perform simulations of the diffusion of C_2 molecules on the surface in the vicinity of existing adsorbate clusters using an augmented Lagrangian penalty method. We find migration barriers in excess of 3 eV on the clean surface, and 0.6--1.0 eV on top of graphene-like adsorbates. The barrier heights and pathways indicate that the growth from gaseous dicarbons proceeds either by direct adsorption onto clean sites or after migration on top of the existing C_2n chains.Comment: 8 Pages, 7 figure

Accurate photometric redshift probability density estimation - method comparison and application

We introduce an ordinal classification algorithm for photometric redshift estimation, which significantly improves the reconstruction of photometric redshift probability density functions (PDFs) for individual galaxies and galaxy samples. As a use case we apply our method to CFHTLS galaxies. The ordinal classification algorithm treats distinct redshift bins as ordered values, which improves the quality of photometric redshift PDFs, compared with non-ordinal classification architectures. We also propose a new single value point estimate of the galaxy redshift, that can be used to estimate the full redshift PDF of a galaxy sample. This method is competitive in terms of accuracy with contemporary algorithms, which stack the full redshift PDFs of all galaxies in the sample, but requires orders of magnitudes less storage space. The methods described in this paper greatly improve the log-likelihood of individual object redshift PDFs, when compared with a popular Neural Network code (ANNz). In our use case, this improvement reaches 50% for high redshift objects (z ≥ 0.75). We show that using these more accurate photometric redshift PDFs will lead to a reduction in the systematic biases by up to a factor of four, when compared with less accurate PDFs obtained from commonly used methods. The cosmological analyses we examine and find improvement upon are the following: gravitational lensing cluster mass estimates, modelling of angular correlation functions, and modelling of cosmic shear correlation functions

Exile Vol. XXXVII No. 1

And It Was Sunday by Julie Gruen 1-6 Like a Lady by Grace Mulvihill 7 The Final You by Eric Franzon 8 Joseph\u27s Children by Seneca Murley 9 Ain\u27t the 1950s Anymore by Ellen Stader 10-12 Bonding Women by Shannon salser 13 Ice Man (for mami 1905-1975) by Anne Mulligan 14 The Car Salesman by Tom Ream 15 Cancelling the Bunny by Stewart Engesser 16-17 Richard Brautigan\u27s Body by Michael Payne 18-19 Dinner in Barcelona by Holly Kurtz 20 Untitled by Margaret Strachen 21 Candles by Eric Franzon 22 Summer Rules by Jim Cox 23-31 My Boat by Holly Kurtz 32 Untitled by Michael Payne 33 Half the Birds in the City by Tiffany Richardson 34-35 Down Queen Anne Hill by Julie Gruen 36-37 Your Music by Tim Emrick 38 Zephyrs by Steve Corinth 39-41 Mother by Anne Mulligan 42 As I Look to the Sky, Maize by Shannon Salser 43-45 Close Book before Striking by Sarah Verdon 46-47 Smoked by Tom Ream 48 Driving through Rain by Stewart Engesser 49-50 Contributors 51 Editorial decision is shared equally among the Editorial Board. -i 35th Yea