Option pricing of earnings announcement risks

This paper uses option prices to learn about the equity price uncertainty surrounding information released on earnings announcement dates. To do this, we introduce reduced-form models and estimators to separate price uncertainty regarding earnings announcements from normal day-to-day volatility. Empirically, we find strong support for the importance of earnings announcements. We find that the anticipated price uncertainty is quantitatively large, varies across time, and is informative about the future return volatility. Finally, we quantify the impact of earnings announcements on formal option pricing models

On “historical unity” of Russian and Ukrainian: A linguistic perspective on language conflict and change

This paper focuses on Putin’s (2021) misguided claim regarding “historical [linguistic] unity” of Russian and Ukrainian. Their being two distinct languages is not in question, as opposed (for example) to Serbian and Croatian. However, it is important to substantiate the objective reality of those differences, taking a strong stand against unjustified claims about linguistic [unity] where there are no grounds for them. Implementing a Python-coded algorithm, like those described in Nerbonne & Kretzschmar 2013, we calculate Levenshtein distance between frequency-based word lists, in a manner sensitive to both organic and contact-induced change, to fully reveal Ukrainian’s complex relationship with both Russian and Polish

Iron Deficiency Is Common after Restorative Proctocolectomy with Ileal Pouch-Anal Anastomosis in Patients with Ulcerative Colitis

Background: Micronutrient deficiencies may occur after restorative proctocolectomy (RPC) with ileal pouch-anal anastomosis (IPAA) in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC), largely due to malabsorption and/or pouch inflammation. Objectives: The objective of this study was to report the frequency of iron deficiency in patients with UC who underwent RPC with IPAA and identify associated risk factors. Methods: We conducted a retrospective chart review of patients with UC or IBD-unclassified who underwent RPC with IPAA at Mount Sinai Hospital between 2008 and 2017. Patients younger than 18 years of age at the time of colectomy were excluded. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze baseline characteristics. Medians with interquartile range (IQR) were reported for continuous variables, and proportions were reported for categorical variables. Iron deficiency was defined by ferritin <30 ng/mL. Logistic regression was used to analyze unadjusted relationships between hypothesized risk factors and the outcome of iron deficiency. Results: A total of 143 patients had iron studies a median of 3.0 (IQR 1.7–5.6) years after final surgical stage, of whom 73 (51.0%) were men. The median age was 33.5 (IQR 22.7–44.3) years. Iron deficiency was diagnosed in 80 (55.9%) patients with a median hemoglobin of 12.4 g/dL (IQR 10.9–13.3), ferritin of 14 ng/mL (IQR 9.0–23.3), and iron value of 44 μg/dL (IQR 26.0–68.8). Of these, 29 (36.3%) had a pouchoscopy performed within 3 months of iron deficiency diagnosis. Pouchitis and cuffitis were separately noted in 4 (13.8%) and 13 (44.8%) patients, respectively, and concomitant pouchitis-cuffitis was noted in 9 (31.0%) patients. Age, sex, anastomosis type, pouch duration, and history of pouchitis and/or cuffitis were not associated with iron deficiency. Conclusion: Iron deficiency is common after RPC with IPAA in patients with UC. Cuffitis is seen in the majority of patients with iron deficiency; however, iron deficiency may occur even in the absence of inflammation

Clustering of dystonia in some pedigrees with autosomal dominant essential tremor suggests the existence of a distinct subtype of essential tremor

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is an ongoing debate whether essential tremor (ET) represents a monosymptomatic disorder or other neurologic symptoms are compatible with the diagnosis of ET. Many patients with clinically definite ET develop dystonia. It remains unknown whether tremor associated with dystonia represent a subtype of ET. We hypothesized that ET with dystonia represents a distinct subtype of ET.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We studied patients diagnosed with familial ET and dystonia. We included only those patients whose first-degree relatives met diagnostic criteria for ET or dystonia with tremor. This cohort was ascertained for the presence of focal, segmental, multifocal, hemidystonia or generalized dystonia, and ET.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We included 463 patients from 97 kindreds with autosomal dominant mode of inheritance (AD), defined by the vertical transmission of the disease. ET was the predominant phenotype in every ascertained family and each was phenotypically classified as AD ET. "Pure" ET was present in 365 individuals. Focal or segmental dystonia was present in 98 of the 463 patients; 87 of the 98 patients had ET associated with dystonia, one had dystonic tremor and ten had isolated dystonia. The age of onset and tremor severity did not differ between patients with "pure" ET and ET associated with dystonia. We did not observe a random distribution of dystonia in AD ET pedigrees and all patients with dystonia associated with ET were clustered in 28% of all included pedigrees (27/97, p < 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results suggest that familial ET associated with dystonia may represent a distinct subtype of ET.</p

Prediction of complicated disease course for children newly diagnosed with Crohn's disease: a multicentre inception cohort study

Stricturing and penetrating complications account for substantial morbidity and health-care costs in paediatric and adult onset Crohn’s disease. Validated models to predict risk for complications are not available, and the effect of treatment on risk is unknown

Affected Experiencers

Numerous languages permit an NP that is not selected by the verb to be added to a clause, with several different possible interpretations. We divide such non-selected arguments into possessor, benefactive, attitude holder, and affected experiencer categories, on the basis of syntactic and semantic differences between them. We propose a formal analysis of the affected experiencer construction. In our account, a syntactic head Aff(ect) introduces the experiencer argument, and adds a conventional implicature to the effect that any event of the type denoted by its syntactic sister is the source of the experiencer’s psychological experience. Hence, our proposal involves two tiers of meaning: the at-issue meaning of the sentence, and some not-at-issue meaning (an implicature). A syntactic head can introduce material on both tiers. Additionally, we allow two parameters of variation: (i) the height of the attachment of Aff, and (ii) how much of the semantics is at-issue and how much is an implicature. We show that these two parameters account for the attested variation across our sample of languages, as well as the significant commonalities among them. Our analysis also accounts for significant differences between affected experiencers and the other types of non-selected arguments, and we also note a generalization to the effect that purely not-at-issue non-selected arguments can only be weak or clitic pronouns

A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of coenzyme Q10 in Huntington disease

Objective: To test the hypothesis that chronic treatment of early-stage Huntington disease (HD) with high-dose coenzyme Q10 (CoQ) will slow the progressive functional decline of HD. Methods: We performed a multicenter randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Patients with early-stage HD (n = 609) were enrolled at 48 sites in the United States, Canada, and Australia from 2008 to 2012. Patients were randomized to receive either CoQ 2,400 mg/d or matching placebo, then followed for 60 months. The primary outcome variable was the change from baseline to month 60 in Total Functional Capacity score (for patients who survived) combined with time to death (for patients who died) analyzed using a joint-rank analysis approach. Results: An interim analysis for futility revealed a conditional power of <5% for the primary analysis, prompting premature conclusion in July 2014. No statistically significant differences were seen between treatment groups for the primary or secondary outcome measures. CoQ was generally safe and well-tolerated throughout the study. Conclusions: These data do not justify use of CoQ as a treatment to slow functional decline in HD

Non-Invasive Mapping of the Gastrointestinal Microbiota Identifies Children with Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Background: Pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is challenging to diagnose because of the non-specificity of symptoms; an unequivocal diagnosis can only be made using colonoscopy, which clinicians are reluctant to recommend for children. Diagnosis of pediatric IBD is therefore frequently delayed, leading to inappropriate treatment plans and poor outcomes. We investigated the use of 16S rRNA sequencing of fecal samples and new analytical methods to assess differences in the microbiota of children with IBD and other gastrointestinal disorders. Methodology/Principal Findings: We applied synthetic learning in microbial ecology (SLiME) analysis to 16S sequencing data obtained from i) published surveys of microbiota diversity in IBD and ii) fecal samples from 91 children and young adults who were treated in the gastroenterology program of Children’s Hospital (Boston, USA). The developed method accurately distinguished control samples from those of patients with IBD; the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) value was 0.83 (corresponding to 80.3% sensitivity and 69.7% specificity at a set threshold). The accuracy was maintained among data sets collected by different sampling and sequencing methods. The method identified taxa associated with disease states and distinguished patients with Crohn’s disease from those with ulcerative colitis with reasonable accuracy. The findings were validated using samples from an additional group of 68 patients; the validation test identified patients with IBD with an AUC value of 0.84 (e.g. 92% sensitivity, 58.5% specificity). Conclusions/Significance: Microbiome-based diagnostics can distinguish pediatric patients with IBD from patients with similar symptoms. Although this test can not replace endoscopy and histological examination as diagnostic tools, classification based on microbial diversity is an effective complementary technique for IBD detection in pediatric patients.Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (Award NSERC PGS D)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (1-R21-A1084032-01A1

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination on Inflammatory Bowel Disease Activity and Development of Vaccine-Related Adverse Events: Results From PREVENT-COVID

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 vaccination is recommended for all individuals with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), including those on immunosuppressive therapies; however, little is known about vaccine safety and efficacy in these patients or the impact of vaccination on IBD disease course.We evaluated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine–related adverse events (AEs) and the effect of vaccination on IBD disease course among participants in the PREVENT-COVID (Partnership to Report Effectiveness of Vaccination in populations Excluded from iNitial Trials of COVID) study, a prospective, observational cohort study. Localized and systemic reactions were assessed via questionnaire. Disease flare was defined by worsening IBD symptoms and change in IBD medications. Outcomes were stratified by vaccine type and IBD medication classes.A total of 3316 individuals with IBD received at least 1 COVID-19 vaccine. Injection site tenderness (68%) and fatigue (46% dose 1, 68% dose 2) were the most commonly reported localized and systemic AEs after vaccination. Severe localized and systemic vaccine-related AEs were rare. The mRNA-1273 vaccine was associated with significantly greater severe AEs at dose 2 (localized 4% vs 2%, systemic 15% vs 10%; P &lt; .001 for both). Prior COVID-19 infection, female sex, and vaccine type were associated with severe systemic reactions to dose 1, while age &lt;50 years, female sex, vaccine type, and antitumor necrosis factor and vedolizumab use were associated with severe systemic reactions to dose 2. Overall rates (2%) of IBD flare were low following vaccination.Our findings provide reassurance that the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 vaccine is safe and well tolerated among individuals with IBD, which may help to combat vaccine hesitancy and increase vaccine confidence.The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 vaccine is safe and well tolerated among individuals with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Severe localized and systemic vaccine-related adverse events were rare, and rates of IBD flare were low (2%) following severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 vaccination in a cohort of 3316 participants with IBD

Safety and Tolerability of SRX246, a Vasopressin 1a Antagonist, in Irritable Huntington\u27s Disease Patients-A Randomized Phase 2 Clinical Trial.

SRX246 is a vasopressin (AVP) 1a receptor antagonist that crosses the blood-brain barrier. It reduced impulsive aggression, fear, depression and anxiety in animal models, blocked the actions of intranasal AVP on aggression/fear circuits in an experimental medicine fMRI study and demonstrated excellent safety in Phase 1 multiple-ascending dose clinical trials. The present study was a 3-arm, multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind, 12-week, dose escalation study of SRX246 in early symptomatic Huntington\u27s disease (HD) patients with irritability. Our goal was to determine whether SRX246 was safe and well tolerated in these HD patients given its potential use for the treatment of problematic neuropsychiatric symptoms. Participants were randomized to receive placebo or to escalate to 120 mg twice daily or 160 mg twice daily doses of SRX246. Assessments included standard safety tests, the Unified Huntington\u27s Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS), and exploratory measures of problem behaviors. The groups had comparable demographics, features of HD and baseline irritability. Eighty-two out of 106 subjects randomized completed the trial on their assigned dose of drug. One-sided exact-method confidence interval tests were used to reject the null hypothesis of inferior tolerability or safety for each dose group vs. placebo. Apathy and suicidality were not affected by SRX246. Most adverse events in the active arms were considered unlikely to be related to SRX246. The compound was safe and well tolerated in HD patients and can be moved forward as a candidate to treat irritability and aggression