Financial Globalization and Emerging Market Portfolios

Although emerging market Asian economies have experienced high growth without crises for close to a decade, many commentators find the large buildup of foreign exchange reserves among these economies both puzzling and evidence of incipient global imbalances. This paper reviews some of the experience of Asian countries over the last decade. We focus on the degree to which Asian economies have experienced financial globalization, meaning that their gross external asset and liability positions have grown significantly. In particular, while Asian economies have become significant gross creditors in bonds and other fixed income assets, their liability position in equity and FDI assets has also grown significantly. We show that a simple dynamic general equilibrium model of portfolio choice in an emerging market economy can account for this trend remarkably well.Asia, Financial Globalization, FDI, Foreign Exchange Rate Reserves

Measuring Taxes on Income from Capital

This paper provides a conceptual review of how the impact of taxes on the incentive to invest in the corporate sector can be measured. The focus is on measures derived from economic theory. Two measures are derived – effective marginal and average tax rates – which reflect different forms of investment decisions. A number of extensions to the basic model are examined, including the role of personal taxes, the source of finance and risk. These measures are compared to empirical measures based on observed tax revenues or tax liabilities.

Fiscal deficits, debt, and monetary policy in a liquidity trap

The macroeconomic response to the economic crisis has revived old debates about the usefulness of monetary and fiscal policy in fighting recessions. Without the ability to further lower interest rates, policy authorities in many countries have turned to expansionary fiscal policies. Recent literature argues that government spending may be very effective in such environments. But a critical element of the stimulus packages in all countries was the use of deficit financing and tax reductions. This paper explores the role of government debt and deficits in an economy constrained by the zero bound on nominal interest rates. Given that the liquidity trap is generated by a large increase in the desire to save on the part of the private sector, the wealth effects of government deficits can provide a critical macroeconomic response to this. Government spending financed by deficits may be far more expansionary than that financed by tax increases in such an environment. In a liquidity trap, tax cuts may be much more effective than during normal times. Finally, monetary policies aimed at directly increasing monetary aggregates may be effective, even if interest rates are unchanged.Fiscal policy ; Recessions ; Deficit financing ; Debts, Public ; Government spending policy ; Monetary policy ; Taxation ; Liquidity (Economics)

A Simple Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of the Trade-off Between Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates

This paper provides a complete analytical characterization of the positive and normative effects of alternative exchange rate regimes in a simple two-country sticky-price dynamic general equilibrium model with money, technology, and government spending shocks. A central question addressed is whether fixing the exchange rate prevents macroeconomic adjustment in relative prices from occurring, in face of shocks. In the model, the exchange rate regime has implications for both the volatility and mean of macroeconomic aggregates. But the effects of the exchange rate regime depend upon both the stance of monetary policy and the way in which the exchange rate is pegged. With a passive monetary policy, a cooperative pegged exchange rate regime has no implications for macroeconomic volatility, relative to a floating regime, but implies a higher mean level of employment, capital stock, and real GDP. When monetary policy is determined optimally however, a fixed exchange rate regime leads to higher employment volatility and a lower mean level of employment and real GDP. Therefore, whether fixing the exchange rate involves a welfare cost depends critically upon the flexibility of monetary policy in responding to macroeconomic shocks.

Financial Globalization and Emerging Market Portfolios

Although emerging market Asian economies have experienced high growth without crises for close to a decade, many commentators find the large buildup of foreign exchange reserves among these economies both puzzling and evidence of incipient global imbalances. This paper reviews some of the experiences of Asian countries over the last decade. We focus on the degree to which Asian economies have experienced financial globalization, meaning that their gross external asset and liability positions have grown significantly. In particular, while Asian economies have become significant gross creditors in bonds and other fixed income assets, their liability position in equity and foreign direct investment assets has also grown significantly. We show that a simple dynamic general equilibrium model of portfolio choice in an emerging market economy can account for this trend remarkably well.Asia; Financial globalization; Foreign direct investment; Foreign exchange rate reserves

Measuring taxes on income from capital: evidence from the UK

This paper explores the properties of alternative measures of the taxation of income from capital, by applying them to data for the UK over the last thirty years. We consider several types of measures, reflecting both average and marginal rates.

The taxation of discrete investment choices

Traditional analysis of the taxation of income from capital has focused on the impact of tax on marginal investment decisions; the principal impact of tax on investment is through the cost of capital, and is generally measured by an effective marginal tax rate. In this paper, we consider cases in which investors face a choice between two or more mutually exclusive projects, both of which are expected to earn at least the minimum required rate of return. Examples include the location decisions of multinationals, firms’ choice of technology, and the choice of investment projects in the presence of binding financial constraints. In these cases the choice depends on the effective average tax rate. We propose a measure of this rate and demonstrate its relationship to the conventional effective marginal tax rate. Estimates of both are presented and compared for domestic and international investment in Germany, Japan, the UK and USA between 1979 and 1997.

Investment, Finacial Factors and Cash Flow: Evidence From UK Panel Data

In this paper we provide some econometric evidence on the impact of financial factors like cash flow, debt and stock measures of liquidity on the investment decisions of U. K. firms. These variables are introduced via an extension of the Q model of investment which explicitly includes agency/financial distress costs. We discuss if the significance of cash flow may be due to the fact that it proxies for output or because it is a better measure of market fundamentals than Q. Moreover we investigate if the effect of financial factors varies across different types of firms, according to size, age, and type of industry (growing and declining). We analyze the determinants of the magnitude of the cash flow effect and explain why caution must be exercised in attributing inter-firm differences only to differences in the importance of agency or financial distress costs.