Dynamics of left-right party positions : separating systematic movements from noise

We investigate whether it is feasible to use the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP) data on party positioning to take account of party movements along the left-right dimension. At issue are answers to two questions. Are there discernable dynamics in party positions? And, if so, is it possible to separate systematic party dynamics from measurement error so as to make effective use of the CMP data? The answer to both questions is yes. Our analysis of 81 parties across the post-War period detects systematic movements in the left-right positions for one third of the parties. Our analysis of measurement error reveals that, as measured by the CMP, about 65% of the variance in party positions records reliable long-term differences across parties, another 16% records systematic movements, and the remaining 19% is error. We conclude with discussions of what one should make of this mix of stability, movements, and error and what one should do about it when using the CMP data to analyze substantively important questions about politics and policy. Of particular importance are our recommendation to be ever mindful of the two possible sources of error—a faulty instrument and erratic behavior on the part of parties themselves—and our suggestion for how to separate or combine those possibilities depending on one’s theoretical concern

What are elections for? conferring the median mandate

Democracy is often described as a system in which a majority of electors choose one out of a number of competing parties to form a government and carry out its programme. Unfortunately, spontaneous majorities rarely form in support of one party. We generalize from a 'government' to a 'median' mandate, in which the median elector chooses the pivotal party in parliament, which then translates his or her preferences into public policy. To check this we investigate how accurately parliaments and governments represent the left-right position of the median voter in each of twenty parliamentary democracies. Distortions depend on the type of electoral arrangement, being relatively smaller under proportional representation than under single-member districts. Distortions do not equate to biased representation, however. Once we consider how distortions at one step or one time are compensated by distortions in the opposite direction at another, overall representation of the median voter position is reasonably accurate

Divergence in seasonal hydrology across northern Eurasia: Emerging trends and water cycle linkages

Discharge from large Eurasia rivers increased during the 20th century, yet much remains unknown regarding details of this increasing freshwater flux. Here, for the three largest Eurasian basins (the Ob, Yenisei, and Lena) we examine the nature of annual and seasonal discharge trends by investigating the flow changes along with those for precipitation, snow depth, and snow water equivalent. On the basis of a multiperiod trend analysis and examination of station data, we propose two characteristic regimes to explain the long‐term discharge increase from these large Eurasian rivers. Over the early decades from approximately 1936 to 1965, annual precipitation correlates well with annual discharge, and positive discharge trends are concurrent with summer/fall discharge increases. The latter decades were marked by a divergence between winter/spring flows, which increased, amid summer/fall discharge declines. A comparison of cold season precipitation (CSP) and spring discharge trends across subbasins of the Ob, Yenisei, and Lena shows limited agreement with one precipitation data set but good agreement (R2 \u3e 0.90) when a second is used. While natural variability in the Arctic system tends to mask these emerging trends, spatial and temporal changes can generally be characterized by increased solid precipitation, primarily to the north, along with a drier hydrography during the warm season

Searching for Cooling Signatures in Strong Lensing Galaxy Clusters: Evidence Against Baryons Shaping the Matter Distribution in Cluster Cores

The process by which the mass density profile of certain galaxy clusters becomes centrally concentrated enough to produce high strong lensing (SL) cross-sections is not well understood. It has been suggested that the baryonic condensation of the intra-cluster medium (ICM) due to cooling may drag dark matter to the cores and thus steepen the profile. In this work, we search for evidence of ongoing ICM cooling in the first large, well-defined sample of strong lensing selected galaxy clusters in the range 0.1 < z < 0.6. Based on known correlations between the ICM cooling rate and both optical emission line luminosity and star formation, we measure, for a sample of 89 strong lensing clusters, the fraction of clusters that have [OII]3727 emission in their brightest cluster galaxy (BCG). We find that the fraction of line-emitting BCGs is constant as a function of redshift for z > 0.2 and shows no statistically significant deviation from the total cluster population. Specific star formation rates, as traced by the strength of the 4000 angstrom break, D_4000, are also consistent with the general cluster population. Finally, we use optical imaging of the SL clusters to measure the angular separation, R_arc, between the arc and the center of mass of each lensing cluster in our sample and test for evidence of changing [OII] emission and D_4000 as a function of R_arc, a proxy observable for SL cross-sections. D_4000 is constant with all values of R_arc, and the [OII] emission fractions show no dependence on R_arc for R_arc > 10" and only very marginal evidence of increased weak [OII] emission for systems with R_arc < 10". These results argue against the ability of baryonic cooling associated with cool core activity in the cores of galaxy clusters to strongly modify the underlying dark matter potential, leading to an increase in strong lensing cross-sections.Comment: 9 Pages, 5 Figures, 1 Tabl

The dimensionality of the Portuguese party policy space

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the Portuguese parties and their policy space. We show how and how well the parties have been able to adapt to the changing environment in the party system. Our analyses show that, not only are we able check existing static expert assessments of the Portuguese party and policy space, but we are also able to track the dynamics of the system. In this way, we expand on what little has been said thus far about the Portuguese party system. We conclude with three important ideas. First, we confirm that the Portuguese policy space is unidimensional, with the parties lining up from Left to Right, as some but not all experts, have suggested. Second, we propose that the environment of the Portuguese party system is one of compression, that is, parties have been office-seekers in that they have all been approaching the Centre of the political spectrum for a number of reasons we explore in detail. Last, we learn that only through issue dimensions and how parties pronounce themselves on these dimensions are the smaller parties able to survive and avoid extinction in the compressing environment of the party system. *Mendes and Camões are grateful to the University of Minho. And all of us wish to thank Ian Budge and Andrea Volkens for providing us with updated data of the manifestoes

The changing face of the Portuguese parties : strategic innovation and the dimensionality of the party policy space

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the Portuguese parties and their policy space. We show how and how well the parties have been able to adapt to the changing environment in the party system. Our analyses show that, not only are we able check existing static expert assessments of the Portuguese party and policy space, but we are also able to track the dynamics of the system. In this way, we expand on what little has been said thus far about the Portuguese party system. We conclude with three important ideas. First, we confirm that the Portuguese policy space is unidimensional, with the parties lining up from Left to Right, as some but not all experts, have suggested. Second, we propose that the environment of the Portuguese party system is one of compression, that is, parties have been office-seekers in that they have all been approaching the Centre of the political spectrum for a number of reasons we explore in detail. Last, we learn that only through issue dimensions and how parties pronounce themselves on these dimensions are the smaller parties able to survive and avoid extinction in the compressing environment of the party system

Putting severity of punishment back in the deterrence package

Studies of criminal deterrence usually show an effect of certainty of punishment but often fail to find an effect of severity. This is a serious threat to the theoretical underpinnings of deterrence theory. Through both a survey of 39 analyses in 33 published studies and our own reanalysis of an often-used data set, we show the problem rests not with the theory but with the analysis of the theory. Finding no severity effect can be traced to â unbundling the theoretical packageâ when moving from the theory to the statistical models used to represent the theory

New proof-of-concept in viral inactivation: virucidal efficacy of 405 nm light against feline calicivirus as a model for norovirus decontamination

The requirement for novel decontamination technologies for use in hospitals is ever present. One such system uses 405 nm visible light to inactivate microorganisms via ROS-generated oxidative damage. Although effective for bacterial and fungal inactivation, little is known about the virucidal effects of 405 nm light. Norovirus (NoV) gastroenteritis outbreaks often occur in the clinical setting, and this study was designed to investigate potential inactivation effects of 405 nm light on the NoV surrogate, feline calicivirus (FCV). FCV was exposed to 405 nm light whilst suspended in minimal and organically-rich media to establish the virucidal efficacy and the effect biologically-relevant material may play in viral susceptibility. Antiviral activity was successfully demonstrated with a 4 Log10 (99.99%) reduction in infectivity when suspended in minimal media evident after a dose of 2.8 kJ cm−2. FCV exposed in artificial faeces, artificial saliva, blood plasma and other organically rich media exhibited an equivalent level of inactivation using between 50–85% less dose of the light, indicating enhanced inactivation when the virus is present in organically-rich biologically-relevant media. Further research in this area could aid in the development of 405 nm light technology for effective NoV decontamination within the hospital environment

Cross-temporal and cross-national comparisons of party left-right positions

We investigate the cross-time and cross-nation comparability of party left-right position measurements by expert surveys and the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP). While expert surveys show party left-right positions to be mostly static, we find the CMP records systematic party movements for one-third of the parties analyzed. On the issue of cross-national comparability, we find cross-national variation in expert surveys is muted. They contain little more than the variation associated with reputations based on party-family affiliation. The CMP measurements, on the other hand, contain variation attributable to national party-system differences. We conclude with thoughts about why all of this is so and about how one might navigate the expert survey limitations depending on the question one wants to answer about democratic politics and policy making