A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting

The following hypotheses about long-range market forecasting were examined: Hl Objective methods provide more accuracy than do subjective methods. H2 The relative advantage of objective over subjective methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. H3 Causal methods provide more accuracy than do naive methods. H4 The relative advantage of causal over naive methods increases as the amount of change in the environment increases. Support for these hypotheses was then obtained from the literature and from a study of a single market. The study used three different models to make ex ante forecasts of the U.S. air travel market from 1963 through 1968. These hypotheses imply that econometric methods are more accurate for long range market forecasting than are the major alternatives, expert judgment and extrapolation, and that the relative superiority of econometric methods increases as the time span of the forecast increases.long-range market forecasting, forecasting methods, forecasting

Closed-Loop Targeted Memory Reactivation during Sleep Improves Spatial Navigation

Sounds associated with newly learned information that are replayed during non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep can improve recall in simple tasks. The mechanism for this improvement is presumed to be reactivation of the newly learned memory during sleep when consolidation takes place. We have developed an EEG-based closed-loop system to precisely deliver sensory stimulation at the time of down-state to up-state transitions during NREM sleep. Here, we demonstrate that applying this technology to participants performing a realistic navigation task in virtual reality results in a significant improvement in navigation efficiency after sleep that is accompanied by increases in the spectral power especially in the fast (12\u201315 Hz) sleep spindle band. Our results show promise for the application of sleep-based interventions to drive improvement in real-world tasks

The Exclusion of Restrictive Lung Disease by Spirometric Criteria in Patients with a Reduced Forced Vital Capacity

Reductions in forced vital capacity (EVC) as determined by spirometry may result from restrictive or obstructive disease, either alone or in combination. Restrictive disease is implied when measures of forced expiratory flow are relatively maintained, and obstructive disease is present when flow measurements are disproportionately reduced. In the presence of air flow obstruction, the possibility of concomitant restrictive disease contributing to the reduction in FVC is difficult to assess from spirometry alone. Static lung volumes are usually necessary to establish this diagnosis. We evaluated the FEV1/EVC%o obtained at spirometry compared to its predicted normal value. We found it to be useful in eliminating the need for additional testing in many cases in which the question of mixed obstructive and restrictive disease had been raised. Specifically, in patients with obstructive disease and a reduced FVC, an FEV1/FVC% of less than 81%, of the age-, height-, and sex-matched predicted value largely excluded the possibility that concomitant restrictive disease was also present (p\u3c.05). Higher values had no predictive value

Implicit moral evaluations: A multinomial modeling approach

Implicit moral evaluations-i.e., immediate, unintentional assessments of the wrongness of actions or persons-play a central role in supporting moral behavior in everyday life. Yet little research has employed methods that rigorously measure individual differences in implicit moral evaluations. In five experiments, we develop a new sequential priming measure-the Moral Categorization Task-and a multinomial model that decomposes judgment on this task into multiple component processes. These include implicit moral evaluations of moral transgression primes (Unintentional Judgment), accurate moral judgments about target actions (Intentional Judgment), and a directional tendency to judge actions as morally wrong (Response Bias). Speeded response deadlines reduced Intentional Judgment but not Unintentional Judgment (Experiment 1). Unintentional Judgment was stronger toward moral transgression primes than non-moral negative primes (Experiments 2-4). Intentional Judgment was associated with increased error-related negativity, a neurophysiological indicator of behavioral control (Experiment 4). Finally, people who voted for an anti-gay marriage amendment had stronger Unintentional Judgment toward gay marriage primes (Experiment 5). Across Experiments 1-4, implicit moral evaluations converged with moral personality: Unintentional Judgment about wrong primes, but not negative primes, was negatively associated with psychopathic tendencies and positively associated with moral identity and guilt proneness. Theoretical and practical applications of formal modeling for moral psychology are discussed