Geography or skills: What explains Fed watchers’ forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?

The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in forecast accuracy among Fed watchers. Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the best and worst-performers across the sample. This heterogeneity is found to be related to both the skills of analysts – such as their educational and employment backgrounds – and to geography. In particular, there is evidence that forecasters located in regions which experience more idiosyncratic economic conditions perform worse in anticipating monetary policy. Moreover, systematic forecaster heterogeneity is economically important as it leads to greater financial market volatility after FOMC meetings. Finally, Fed communication may exert an influence on forecast accuracy. JEL Classification: E52, E58, G14communication, Federal Reserve, FOMC, forecast, geography, heterogeneity, monetary policy, skills, survey data, United States

Geography or skills: what explains Fed Wachters' forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?

The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US monetary policy decisions. Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the best and worstperformers across the sample. This heterogeneity is found to be related to both the skills of analysts - such as their educational and employment backgrounds - and to geography. In particular, forecasters located in regions which experience more idiosyncratic economic conditions perform worse in anticipating monetary policy. This evidence is indicative that limited attention and heterogeneous priors are present even for anticipating important events such as monetary policy decisions. Moreover, the paper shows that such heterogeneity is economically important as it leads to greater financial market volatility after FOMC meetings. Finally, policy-makers are not impotent in influencing such heterogeneity as Fed communication is found to affect forecast accuracy significantly. --Monetary policy,forecast,Federal Reserve,FOMC,geography,skills,heterogeneity,survey data,communication,United States.