Complexity and emergence in city systems: implications for urban planning

Cities can be regarded as the quintessential example of complexity. Insofar as we can define a hidden hand determining their morphology, this is based on the glue that stitches together the actions of individuals and organizations who build and plan the city from the ground-up, so-to-speak. When general systems theory entered the lexicon of science in the mid-20th century, cities were regarded as being excellent examples of systems with interactions between basic elements that demonstrated the slogan of the field: the ‘whole is greater than the sum of the parts’. Since then, as complexity theory has evolved to embrace systems theory and as temporal dynamics has come onto the agenda, cities once again have been used to illustrate basic themes: global organization from local action, emergent morphology from simple spatial decision, temporal order at global levels from volatile, seemingly random change at the level of individual decision-making, evolution and progress through co-evolution, competition, and endless variety. Here we will sketch these ideas with respect to cities illustrating particularly three key ideas which involve the tension between continuously changing systems, qualitative transformations, and radical change based on emergent properties of the whole. Our analysis has many implications for a new theory of urban planning which is built from the bottom up, rather than from the top down which is the traditional way in which such interventions are currently carried out in the name of making better cities. Contemporary problems such as ethnic segregation, urban sprawl, traffic congestion, urban decline, and regeneration are all informed by the perspective on complexity theory that we bring to bear her

Agent-based pedestrian modelling

When the focus of interest in geographical systems is at the very fine scale, at the level of streets and buildings for example, movement becomes central to simulations of how spatial activities are used and develop. Recent advances in computing power and the acquisition of fine scale digital data now mean that we are able to attempt to understand and predict such phenomena with the focus in spatial modelling changing to dynamic simulations of the individual and collective behaviour of individual decision-making at such scales. In this Chapter, we develop ideas about how such phenomena can be modelled showing first how randomness and geometry are all important to local movement and how ordered spatial structures emerge from such actions. We focus on developing these ideas for pedestrians showing how random walks constrained by geometry but aided by what agents can see, determine how individuals respond to locational patterns. We illustrate these ideas with three types of example: first for local scale street scenes where congestion and flocking is all important, second for coarser scale shopping centres such as malls where economic preference interferes much more with local geometry, and finally for semi-organised street festivals where management and control by police and related authorities is integral to the way crowds move

An agenda for fixing the social security/welfare benefits system

Social security/welfare benefits are a fundamental and critical element in tackling economic disadvantage but as Lister (2016) has noted, the current UK system is not preventing poverty, relieves it inadequately and the growing reliance on food banks is me rely the most visible tip of an iceberg of unmet needs. There is much criticism of the current system – from the bedroom tax to the benefits cap, and sanctions to work capability assessments – plus detailed analysis such as Spicker’s (2017) What’s wrong with social security benefits? Projections by the Institute for Fiscal Studies and others show that recent changes to benefits will contribute to increases in already high levels of poverty e.g. the Joseph Rowntree Foundation forecasts there will be 1.2 million more children in poverty by 2020. Not only this, but debate on the topic has become highly politicised and divisive, being described as ‘angry and fruitless’ (Unwin, 2013) and ‘toxic’ (Lister, 2016). Given the politicised nature of the issue, there is potential for civil society to play a leading role in moving debate on. Research (Orton, 2016) has found, however, that there is a lack of agreement even within civil society on ways forward. The research identified that on some issues e.g. housing, Early Childhood Education and Care and minimum wage levels, there is considerable consensus (within civil society) as to what needs to be done and some detailed plans for how to do it. But on the core issue of social security in relation to income that is not the case; there is apparent lack of agreement about ways forward and certainly no detailed plans as exist for other fields. Saying there is little agreement is not to suggest an absence of ideas. There are strong advocates of a n unconditional universal Basic or Citizen’s Income while others express preference for contribution - based entitlements or universal but means - tested benefits. There are different views on the importance that should be given to public services versus individual income support measures or whether to prioritise immediate issues such as the bedroom tax or longer - term changes to Universal Credit and the tax system more generally. This article reports on a project that sought to redress this by using a solutions - focused approach with emphasis on building consensus. Supported by a small grant from the Social Policy Association, the project consisted of eight deliberative workshops which tackled a very specific question: What practical, concrete steps can be taken to put the security back into social security in the short to medium term? The article is in three parts. First it explain s the project methodology. Second, key findings are presented. Third, an agenda for fixing the social security/welfare benefits system is posited