Parallel Lives: Birth, Childhood and Adolescent Influences on Career Paths

This paper uses sequence methods and cluster analysis to create a typology of career paths for a cohort of British 29 year olds born in 1970. There are clear ‘types’ identified by these techniques including several paths dominated by various forms of non-employment. These types are strongly correlated with individual characteristics and parental background factors observed at birth, age ten and age sixteen. By estimating a multinomial logit model of career types we show how policy makers might identify early those young people likely to experience long term non-employment as adults, enabling better targeted preventative policy intervention.careers, cluster analysis, optimal matching

Measuring business growth : high growth firms and their contribution to employment in the UK

The Measuring Business Growth report is a comprehensive look at UK business growth over the past decade. It makes a powerful case that a small number of high-growth businesses are responsible for the lion's share of job creation and prosperity

Who creates the jobs?

Addresses Birch's hypothesis, made in 1979 and the subject of much debate since, that small businesses create the most new jobs, using the Office of National Statistics' new Business Structure Database and focusing on the 1998 cohort of new firms and their evolution up to 2008. Assesses: the size of the firms in the cohort; the distribution of jobs as firms moved between size bands; job creation trends in firms that survived with 20+ employees; and job creation by size band. Argues that the answer to the question of 'who creates the jobs?' depends on exactly how the question is framed

New business formation in a rapidly growing economy: The Irish experience

The extraordinary growth of the Irish economy since the mid-1990s - the 'Celtic Tiger' - has attracted a great deal of interest, commentary and research. Indeed, many countries look to Ireland as an economic development role model, and it has been suggested that Ireland might provide key lessons for other EU members as they seek to achieve the objectives set out in the Lisbon Agenda. Much of the discussion of Ireland's growth has focused on its possible triggers: the long term consequences of the late 1980s fiscal stabilisation; EU structural funds; education; wage moderation; and devaluation of the Irish punt. The industrial policy perspective has highlighted the importance of inflows of foreign direct investment, but a notable absence from the discourse on the 'Celtic Tiger' has been any mention of the role of new business venture creation and entrepreneurship. In this paper we use unpublished Irish VAT data for the years 1988 to 2004 to provide the first detailed look at national trends in business birth and death rates in Ireland over the 'take-off' period. We also use sub-national VAT data to shed light on spatial trends in new venture creation. Our overall conclusions are that new business formation made no detectable contribution to the acceleration of Ireland's growth in the late 1990s, although we do find evidence of spatial convergence in per capita business stocks

The effect of business or enterprise training on opportunity recognition and entrepreneurial skills of graduates and non-graduates in the UK

This paper attempts to overcome methodological challenges in demonstrating the effect of enterprise training on opportunity perception and entrepreneurial skills perception of trainees. A large scale sample of individuals in the UK, part of the 2007 GEMUK database, is utilised. Logistic regression shows that controlling for demographic effects, experience and attitudes, different types of training had different effects on opportunity perception and entrepreneurial skills perception. The results suggest that a combination of college-based training and work placements may provide a better all-round entrepreneurial capability for both graduates and non-graduates

High growth firms, jobs and peripheral regions:the case of Scotland

Enterprise policy is increasingly favouring support for high growth firms (HGFs). However, this may be less effective in promoting new jobs and economic development in peripheral regions. This issue is addressed by a study of HGFs in Scotland. Scottish HGFs differ in a number of respects from the stylised facts in the literature. They create less employment than their counterparts elsewhere in the UK. Most have a significant physical presence outside of Scotland, thereby reducing their Scottish 'footprint' and domestic job creation. Scottish HGFs appear to have a high propensity to be acquired, increasing the susceptibility of the head office to closure. The evidence suggests that the tendency towards 'policy universalism' in the sphere of entrepreneurship policy is problematic

All grown up? The fate after 15 years of a quarter of a million UK firms born in 1998

The theory of firm growth is in a rather unsatisfactory state. However, the analysis of large firm-level datasets which have become available in recent years allows us to begin building an evidence base which can, in turn, be used to underpin the development of more satisfactory theory. Here we study the 239 thousand UK private sector firms born in 1998 over their first 15 years of life. A first, and quite striking, finding is the extraordinary force of mortality. By age 15, 90% of the UK firms born in 1998 are dead, and, for those surviving to age 15, the hazard of death is still about 10% a year. The chance of death is related to the size and growth of firms in an interesting way. Whilst the hazard rate after 15 years is largely independent of size at birth, it is strongly affected by the current (age 14) size. In particular, firms with more than five employees are half as likely to die in the next year as firms with less than five employees. A second important finding is that most firms, even those which survive to age 15, do not grow very much. By age 15 more than half the 26,000 survivors still have less than five jobs. In other words, the growth paths – what we call the ‘growth trajectories’ – of most of the 26,000 survivors are pretty flat. However, of the firms that do grow, firms born smaller grow faster than those born larger. Another striking finding is that growth is heavily concentrated in the first five years. Whilst growth does continue, even up to age 15, each year after age five it involves only a relatively small proportion of firms. Finally, there are two groups of survivors which contribute importantly to job creation. Some are those born relatively large (with more than 20 jobs) although their growth rate is quite modest. More striking though, is a very small group of firms born very small with less than five jobs (about 5% of all survivors) which contribute a substantial proportion (more than one third) of the jobs added to the cohort total by age 15