Agricultural adaptation to climate policies under technical change

This study uses a partial equilibrium model of the US agricultural sector to examine how technical progress and carbon price levels affect land management adaptation. We find that the climate policy range, over which a more extensive agriculture is preferred, decreases as crop yields increase. Second, technical progress with traditional crops offers less mitigation benefits than progress with mitigation options themselves. Third, while agricultural producers benefit from technical progress on energy crops, they fare worse if technical progress improves traditional crops and low carbon prices.Technical Change, Producer Adaptation, Agricultural Sector Model, Carbon Sequestration, Mathematical Programming, Climate Policy Simulation

Economic impacts of changes in fish population dynamics: the role of the fishermen’s harvesting strategies

Using a bioeconomic model of the cod (Gadus morhua) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) fisheries of the Barents Sea, this study assesses the role of the fishermen’s behavior in reducing or intensifying the effects on the stocks caused by altered population dynamics. The analysis focuses on the economic development of the fisheries employing a profit-maximizing harvesting strategy over a given number of fishing periods. The scenarios assessed cover a time period of 100 years with sudden changes of the productivity of both species occurring at the midpoint of each simulation. Stock sizes and landings of fish are determined for each fishing period, and the net present values of profits over periods of interest prior to and following the change in population dynamics are calculated. Results show that if the profit-maximizing harvesting strategy is based on a short optimization period, the fleets with the higher efficiency are generally favored. If the strategy is based on an optimization over two or more fishing periods, fishing activities may be deferred to allow for stock regrowth. In such cases, smaller and less cost-intensive vessels are preferred. A reduction of either the productivity or the carrying capacities of the two species has little impact on the fisheries if the change is fairly small. A substantial reduction of either quantity has a lasting negative economic impact which mainly manifests itself in a severely reduced profitability of mainly the cod fishery.bioeconomic modeling, Barents Sea, cod, capelin, population dynamics, harvesting strategy

Rebuilding the Eastern Baltic cod stock under environmental change - a preliminary approach using stock, environmental, and management constraints

The population dynamics of the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.), unlike many other stocks, shows a strong dependency on environmental conditions. To test the implications of different management policies on the stock and the fishery in a system of global environmental change, we apply a spatially disaggregated, discrete time, age-structured model of the Eastern Baltic cod stock in 50 year simulation analyses. The simulation provides an analysis of stock, yield, and revenue development under various management policies and environmental scenarios. The policy analysis, focusing on different regulations of fishing mortality, is embedded into three environmental scenarios, assuming low, medium, or high climate and environmental change. The environmental assumptions are based on simulation results from a coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model, which project salinity in the Baltic Sea to decrease by 7-47% in the period 2071-2100 relative to the reference period 1961-1990. Our simulation results show that a significant reduction in fishing mortality is necessary for achieving high long-term economic yields. Moreover, under the presented environmental scenarios, a stock collapse cannot be prevented. It can, however, be postponed by the establishment of a marine reserve in ICES subdivision 25.Baltic cod, climate change, environmental variability, reproductive volume, population dynamics, management, policy, age-structured model, temporal marine reserve

Rebuilding the Eastern Baltic cod stock under environmental change - Part II: The economic viability of a marine protected area

This study adds a cost analysis of the Eastern Baltic cod fishery to the existing model presented in Röckmann et al. (forthcoming). As cost data on this international fishery do not exist, available data from Denmark are extrapolated to the whole international fishery. Additionally, unit and total variable costs are simulated and the sensitivity to a set of different cost-stock and cost-output elasticities is tested. The study supports preliminary conclusions that a temporary marine reserve policy, which focuses on protecting the Eastern Baltic cod spawning stock in ICES subdivision 25, is a valuable fisheries management tool to (a) rebuild the overexploited Eastern Baltic cod stock and (b) increase operating profits. The negative effects of climate change can be postponed for at least 20 years – depending on the assumed rate of future climate change. Including costs in the economic analysis does not change the ranking of management policies as proposed in the previous study where costs were neglected.Development, Baltic cod, cost-stock elasticity, cost-output elasticity, sensitivity analysis, climate change scenario, management, policy, temporal marine reserve

Coupled ocean–atmosphere offshore decay scale of cold SST signals along upwelling eastern boundaries

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 29 (2016): 8317-8331, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0109.1.A simple analytic model is developed to represent the offshore decay of cold sea surface temperature (SST) signals that originate from wind-driven upwelling at a coastal boundary. The model couples an oceanic mixed layer to an atmospheric boundary layer through wind stress and air–sea heat exchange. The primary mechanism that controls SST is a balance between Ekman advection and air–sea exchange. The offshore penetration of the cold SST signal decays exponentially with a length scale that is the product of the ocean Ekman velocity and a time scale derived from the air–sea heat flux and the radiative balance in the atmospheric boundary layer. This cold SST signal imprints on the atmosphere in terms of both the boundary layer temperature and surface wind. Nonlinearities due to the feedback between SST and atmospheric wind, baroclinic instability, and thermal wind in the atmospheric boundary layer all slightly modify this linear theory. The decay scales diagnosed from two-dimensional and three-dimensional eddy-resolving numerical ocean models are in close agreement with the theory, demonstrating that the basic physics represented by the theory remain dominant even in these more complete systems. Analysis of climatological SST off the west coast of the United States also shows a decay of the cold SST anomaly with scale roughly in agreement with the theory.MASwas supported by the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research and the National Science Foundation under Grant OCE-1433170 and PLR-1415489. NS was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant NNX14AL83G, the Department of Energy, Office of Science Grant DE-SC0006766, and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology as part of the JAMSTEC-IPRC Joint Investigations.2017-05-0

Wigner crystal vs. Friedel oscillations in the 1D Hubbard model

We analyze the fermion density of the one-dimensional Hubbard model using bosonization and numerical DMRG calculations. For finite systems we find a relatively sharp crossover even for moderate short range interactions into a region with $4k_F$ density waves as a function of density. The results show that the unstable fixed point of a spin-incoherent state can dominate the physical behavior in a large region of parameter space in finite systems. The crossover may be observable in ultra cold fermionic gases in optical lattices and in finite quantum wires.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures. Published version. The most recent file can be found at http://www.physik.uni-kl.de/eggert/papers/index.htm