141 research outputs found
Sector identification in a set of stock return time series traded at the London Stock Exchange
We compare some methods recently used in the literature to detect the
existence of a certain degree of common behavior of stock returns belonging to
the same economic sector. Specifically, we discuss methods based on random
matrix theory and hierarchical clustering techniques. We apply these methods to
a portfolio of stocks traded at the London Stock Exchange. The investigated
time series are recorded both at a daily time horizon and at a 5-minute time
horizon. The correlation coefficient matrix is very different at different time
horizons confirming that more structured correlation coefficient matrices are
observed for long time horizons. All the considered methods are able to detect
economic information and the presence of clusters characterized by the economic
sector of stocks. However different methods present a different degree of
sensitivity with respect to different sectors. Our comparative analysis
suggests that the application of just a single method could not be able to
extract all the economic information present in the correlation coefficient
matrix of a stock portfolio.Comment: 28 pages, 13 figures, 3 Tables. Proceedings of the conference on
"Applications of Random Matrices to Economy and other Complex Systems",
Krakow (Poland), May 25-28 2005. Submitted for pubblication to Acta Phys. Po
Networks in biological systems: An investigation of the Gene Ontology as an evolving network
Many biological systems can be described as networks where different elements interact, in order to perform biological processes. We introduce a network associated with the Gene Ontology. Specifically, we construct a correlation-based
network where the vertices are the terms of the Gene Ontology and the link between each two terms is weighted on the basis of the number of genes that they have in common. We analyze a filtered network obtained from the correlation-based network and we characterize its evolution over different releases of the Gene Ontology
Spanning Trees and bootstrap reliability estimation in correlation based networks
We introduce a new technique to associate a spanning tree to the average
linkage cluster analysis. We term this tree as the Average Linkage Minimum
Spanning Tree. We also introduce a technique to associate a value of
reliability to links of correlation based graphs by using bootstrap replicas of
data. Both techniques are applied to the portfolio of the 300 most capitalized
stocks traded at New York Stock Exchange during the time period 2001-2003. We
show that the Average Linkage Minimum Spanning Tree recognizes economic sectors
and sub-sectors as communities in the network slightly better than the Minimum
Spanning Tree does. We also show that the average reliability of links in the
Minimum Spanning Tree is slightly greater than the average reliability of links
in the Average Linkage Minimum Spanning Tree.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figure
Community characterization of heterogeneous complex systems
We introduce an analytical statistical method to characterize the communities
detected in heterogeneous complex systems. By posing a suitable null
hypothesis, our method makes use of the hypergeometric distribution to assess
the probability that a given property is over-expressed in the elements of a
community with respect to all the elements of the investigated set. We apply
our method to two specific complex networks, namely a network of world movies
and a network of physics preprints. The characterization of the elements and of
the communities is done in terms of languages and countries for the movie
network and of journals and subject categories for papers. We find that our
method is able to characterize clearly the identified communities. Moreover our
method works well both for large and for small communities.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure and 2 table
Statistical properties of thermodynamically predicted RNA secondary structures in viral genomes
By performing a comprehensive study on 1832 segments of 1212 complete genomes
of viruses, we show that in viral genomes the hairpin structures of
thermodynamically predicted RNA secondary structures are more abundant than
expected under a simple random null hypothesis. The detected hairpin structures
of RNA secondary structures are present both in coding and in noncoding regions
for the four groups of viruses categorized as dsDNA, dsRNA, ssDNA and ssRNA.
For all groups hairpin structures of RNA secondary structures are detected more
frequently than expected for a random null hypothesis in noncoding rather than
in coding regions. However, potential RNA secondary structures are also present
in coding regions of dsDNA group. In fact we detect evolutionary conserved RNA
secondary structures in conserved coding and noncoding regions of a large set
of complete genomes of dsDNA herpesviruses.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figure
Modeling long-range memory with stationary Markovian processes
In this paper we give explicit examples of power-law correlated stationary
Markovian processes y(t) where the stationary pdf shows tails which are
gaussian or exponential. These processes are obtained by simply performing a
coordinate transformation of a specific power-law correlated additive process
x(t), already known in the literature, whose pdf shows power-law tails 1/x^a.
We give analytical and numerical evidence that although the new processes (i)
are Markovian and (ii) have gaussian or exponential tails their autocorrelation
function still shows a power-law decay =1/T^b where b grows with a
with a law which is compatible with b=a/2-c, where c is a numerical constant.
When a<2(1+c) the process y(t), although Markovian, is long-range correlated.
Our results help in clarifying that even in the context of Markovian processes
long-range dependencies are not necessarily associated to the occurrence of
extreme events. Moreover, our results can be relevant in the modeling of
complex systems with long memory. In fact, we provide simple processes
associated to Langevin equations thus showing that long-memory effects can be
modeled in the context of continuous time stationary Markovian processes.Comment: 5 figure
Statistically validated networks in bipartite complex systems
Many complex systems present an intrinsic bipartite nature and are often
described and modeled in terms of networks [1-5]. Examples include movies and
actors [1, 2, 4], authors and scientific papers [6-9], email accounts and
emails [10], plants and animals that pollinate them [11, 12]. Bipartite
networks are often very heterogeneous in the number of relationships that the
elements of one set establish with the elements of the other set. When one
constructs a projected network with nodes from only one set, the system
heterogeneity makes it very difficult to identify preferential links between
the elements. Here we introduce an unsupervised method to statistically
validate each link of the projected network against a null hypothesis taking
into account the heterogeneity of the system. We apply our method to three
different systems, namely the set of clusters of orthologous genes (COG) in
completely sequenced genomes [13, 14], a set of daily returns of 500 US
financial stocks, and the set of world movies of the IMDb database [15]. In all
these systems, both different in size and level of heterogeneity, we find that
our method is able to detect network structures which are informative about the
system and are not simply expression of its heterogeneity. Specifically, our
method (i) identifies the preferential relationships between the elements, (ii)
naturally highlights the clustered structure of investigated systems, and (iii)
allows to classify links according to the type of statistically validated
relationships between the connected nodes.Comment: Main text: 13 pages, 3 figures, and 1 Table. Supplementary
information: 15 pages, 3 figures, and 2 Table
An Empirically grounded Agent Based simulator for Air Traffic Management in the SESAR scenario
In this paper we present a simulator allowing to perform policy experiments relative to the air traffic management. Different SESAR solutions can be implemented in the model to see the reaction of the different stakeholders as well as other relevant metrics (delay, safety, etc). The model describes both the strategic phase associated to the planning of the flight trajectories and the tactical modifications occurring in the en-route phase. An implementation of the model is available as an open-source software and is freely accessible by any user.
More specifically, different procedures related to business trajectories and free-routing are tested and we illustrate the capabilities of the model on an airspace which implements these concepts. After performing numerical simulations with the model, we show that in a free-routing scenario the controllers perform less operations but the conflicts are dispersed over a larger portion of the airspace. This can potentially increase the complexity of conflict detection and resolution for controllers.
In order to investigate this specific aspect, we consider some metrics used to measure traffic complexity. We first show that in non-free-routing situations our simulator deals with complexity in a way similar to what humans would do. This allows us to be confident that the results of our numerical simulations relative to the free-routing can reasonably forecast how human controllers would behave in this new situation. Specifically, our numerical simulations show that most of the complexity metrics decrease with free-routing, while the few metrics which increase are all linked to the flight level changes. This is a non-trivial result since intuitively the complexity should increase with free-routing because of problematic geometries and more dispersed conflicts over the airspace
Comprehensive Analysis of Market Conditions in the Foreign Exchange Market: Fluctuation Scaling and Variance-Covariance Matrix
We investigate quotation and transaction activities in the foreign exchange
market for every week during the period of June 2007 to December 2010. A
scaling relationship between the mean values of number of quotations (or number
of transactions) for various currency pairs and the corresponding standard
deviations holds for a majority of the weeks. However, the scaling breaks in
some time intervals, which is related to the emergence of market shocks. There
is a monotonous relationship between values of scaling indices and global
averages of currency pair cross-correlations when both quantities are observed
for various window lengths .Comment: 13 pages, 10 figure
EP-1038: IMRT/VMAT-SIB technique chemoradiation in locally advanced head and neck cancer: toxicity results
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