Demonstrating the sustainability of capacity strengthening amidst COVID-19

The global disruptions caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 crisis posed a threat to the momentum the vector control team at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine (LSTM) and the Programme National de Lutte contre la Tryaponosomiase Humaine Africaine (PNLTHA) had built in their efforts to control tsetse fly populations in the Democratic Republic of Congo. But despite the pandemic and global lockdown, field activities did continue and the same impressive results in tsetse fly reduction were observed and the team followed this by completing a round of ‘tiny target’ deployment without any external presence. Such a success was possible due to the investment in vector control capacity strengthening undertaken by the LSTM and PNLTHA

Feasibility of community-based control of tsetse: A pilot project using Tiny Targets in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Gambianse Human African Trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) is a neglected tropical disease caused by trypanosomes transmitted by tsetse flies. 70%Most (>80%) of the cases in 2019 (604/863) occur in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). and Thea national programme for g-HAT to eliminatione HAT in DRC includes athe large-scale deployment of Tiny Targets which attract and kill tsetse. This intervention is directed by vector-control specialists with small teams, moving in canoes, deploying Tiny Targets along riverbanks where tsetse concentrate. While the targets are deployed in communal areas, and the method is cheap and easy-to-use, local people have little involvement. This study aimed to evaluate if a community-led vector control programme was feasible in the context of DRC’s g-HAT elimination programme

Quantifying epidemiological drivers of gambiense human African Trypanosomiasis across the Democratic Republic of Congo

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a virulent disease declining in burden but still endemic in West and Central Africa. Although it is targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030, there remain numerous questions about the drivers of infection and how these vary geographically. In this study we focus on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which accounted for 84% of the global case burden in 2016, to explore changes in transmission across the country and elucidate factors which may have contributed to the persistence of disease or success of interventions in different regions. We present a Bayesian fitting methodology, applied to 168 endemic health zones ( 100,000 population size), which allows for calibration of a mechanistic gHAT model to case data (from the World Health Organization HAT Atlas) in an adaptive and automated framework. It was found that the model needed to capture improvements in passive detection to match observed trends in the data within former Bandundu and Bas Congo provinces indicating these regions have substantially reduced time to detection. Health zones in these provinces generally had longer burn-in periods during fitting due to additional model parameters. Posterior probability distributions were found for a range of fitted parameters in each health zone; these included the basic reproduction number estimates for pre-1998 (R0) which was inferred to be between 1 and 1.14, in line with previous gHAT estimates, with higher median values typically in health zones with more case reporting in the 2000s. Previously, it was not clear whether a fall in active case finding in the period contributed to the declining case numbers. The modelling here accounts for variable screening and suggests that underlying transmission has also reduced greatly { on average 96% in former Equateur, 93% in former Bas Congo and 89% in former Bandundu { Equateur and Bandundu having had the highest case burdens in 2000. This analysis also sets out a framework to enable future predictions for the country

Assessing the impact of aggregating disease stage data in model predictions of human African trypanosomiasis transmission and control activities in Bandundu province (DRC)

Since the turn of the century, the global community has made great progress towards the elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT). Elimination programs, primarily relying on screening and treatment campaigns, have also created a rich database of HAT epidemiology. Mathematical models calibrated with these data can help to fill remaining gaps in our understanding of HAT transmission dynamics, including key operational research questions such as whether integrating vector control with current intervention strategies is needed to achieve HAT elimination. Here we explore, via an ensemble of models and simulation studies, how including or not disease stage data, or using more updated data sets affect model predictions of future control strategies

Identifying regions for enhanced control of gambiense sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness, gHAT) is a disease targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030. While annual new cases are at a historical minimum, the likelihood of achieving the target is unknown. We utilised modelling to study the impacts of four strategies using currently available interventions, including active and passive screening and vector control, on disease burden and transmission across 168 endemic health zones in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Median projected years of elimination of transmission show only 98 health zones are on track despite significant reduction in disease burden under medical-only strategies (64 health zones if > 90% certainty required). Blanket coverage with vector control is impractical, but is predicted to reach the target in all heath zones. Utilising projected disease burden under the uniform medical-only strategy, we provide a priority list of health zones for consideration for supplementary vector control alongside medical interventions

Comparison of stochastic and deterministic models for gambiense sleeping sickness at different spatial scales : a health area analysis in the DRC

The intensification of intervention activities against the fatal vector-borne disease gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT, sleeping sickness) in the last two decades has led to a large decline in the number of annually reported cases. However, while we move closer to achieving the ambitious target of elimination of transmission (EoT) to humans, pockets of infection remain, and it becomes increasingly important to quantitatively assess if different regions are on track for elimination, and where intervention efforts should be focused. We present a previously developed stochastic mathematical model for gHAT in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and show that this same formulation is able to capture the dynamics of gHAT observed at the health area level (approximately 10,000 people). This analysis was the first time any stochastic gHAT model has been fitted directly to case data and allows us to better quantify the uncertainty in our results. The analysis focuses on utilising a particle filter Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology to fit the model to the data from 16 health areas of Mosango health zone in Kwilu province as a case study. The spatial heterogeneity in cases is reflected in modelling results, where we predict that under the current intervention strategies, the health area of Kinzamba II, which has approximately one third of the health zone’s cases, will have the latest expected year for EoT. We find that fitting the analogous deterministic version of the gHAT model using MCMC has substantially faster computation times than fitting the stochastic model using pMCMC, but produces virtually indistinguishable posterior parameterisation. This suggests that expanding health area fitting, to cover more of the DRC, should be done with deterministic fits for efficiency, but with stochastic projections used to capture both the parameter and stochastic variation in case reporting and elimination year estimations

Predicting the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in two health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo

Many control programmes against neglected tropical diseases have been interrupted due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including those that rely on active case finding. In this study we focus on gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), where active screening was suspended in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) due to the pandemic. We use two independent mathematical models to predict the impact of COVID-19 interruptions on transmission and reporting and achievement of the 2030 elimination of transmission (EOT) goal for gHAT in two moderate-risk regions of the DRC. We consider different interruption scenarios, including reduced passive surveillance in fixed health facilities, and whether this suspension lasts until the end of 2020 or 2021. Our models predict an increase in the number of new infections in the interruption period only if both active screening and passive surveillance were suspended, and with a slowed reduction—but no increase—if passive surveillance remains fully functional. In all scenarios, the EOT may be slightly pushed back if no mitigation, such as increased screening coverage, is put in place. However, we emphasise that the biggest challenge will remain in the higher-prevalence regions where EOT is already predicted to be behind schedule without interruptions unless interventions are bolstered

Modelling to quantify the likelihood that local elimination of transmission has occurred using routine gambiense human African trypanosomiasis surveillance data

Background The gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) elimination programme in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) routinely collects case data through passive surveillance and active screening, with several regions reporting no cases for several years, despite being endemic in the early 2000s. Methods We use mathematical models fitted to longitudinal data to estimate the probability that selected administrative regions have already achieved elimination of transmission (EOT) of gHAT. We examine the impact of active screening coverage on the certainty of model estimates for transmission and therefore the role of screening in the measurement of EOT. Results In three example health zones of Sud-Ubangi province we find there is a moderate (>40%) probability that EOT has been achieved by 2018, based on 2000–2016 data. Budjala and Mbaya reported zero cases during 2017–18 and this further increases our respective estimates to 99.9% and 99.6% (Model S); and to 87.3% and 92.1% (Model W). Bominenge had recent case reporting, however if zero cases were found in 2021 it would substantially raise our certainty that EOT has been met there (99.0% for Model S and 88.5% for Model W), and this could be higher with 50% coverage screening that year (99.1% for Model S and 94.0% for Model W). Conclusions We demonstrate how routine surveillance data coupled with mechanistic modelling can estimate the likelihood that EOT has already been achieved. Such quantitative assessment will become increasingly important for measuring local achievement of EOT as 2030 approaches

Efficacy and safety of acoziborole in patients with human African trypanosomiasis caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense: a multicentre, open-label, single-arm, phase 2/3 trial

Summary Background Human African trypanosomiasis caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense (gambiense HAT) in patients with late-stage disease requires hospital admission to receive nifurtimox-eflornithine combination therapy (NECT). Fexinidazole, the latest treatment that has been recommended by WHO, also requires systematic admission to hospital, which is problematic in areas with few health-care resources. We aim to assess the safety and efficacy of acoziborole in adult and adolescent patients with gambiense HAT. Methods This multicentre, prospective, open-label, single-arm, phase 2/3 study recruited patients aged 15 years or older with confirmed gambiense HAT infection from ten hospitals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guinea. Inclusion criteria included a Karnofsky score less than 50, ability to swallow tablets, a permanent address or traceability, ability to comply with follow-up visits and study requirements, and agreement to hospital admission during treatment. Oral acoziborole was administered as a single 960 mg dose (3 × 320 mg tablets) to fasted patients. Patients were observed in hospital until day 15 after treatment administration then for 18 months as outpatients with visits at 3, 6, 12, and 18 months. The primary efficacy endpoint was the success rate of acoziborole treatment at 18 months in patients with late-stage gambiense HAT (modified intention-to-treat [mITT] population), based on modified WHO criteria. A complementary post-hoc analysis comparing the 18-month success rates for acoziborole and NECT (using historical data) was performed. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03087955. Findings Between Oct 11, 2016, and March 25, 2019, 260 patients were screened, of whom 52 were ineligible and 208 were enrolled (167 with late-stage and 41 with early-stage or intermediate-stage gambiense HAT; primary efficacy analysis set). All 41 (100%) patients with early-stage or intermediate-stage and 160 (96%) of 167 with late-stage disease completed the last 18-month follow-up visit. The mean age of participants was 34·0 years (SD 12·4), including 117 (56%) men and 91 (44%) women. Treatment success rate at 18 months was 95·2% (95% CI 91·2-97·7) reached in 159 of 167 patients with late-stage gambiense HAT (mITT population) and 98·1% (95·1-99·5) reached in 159 of 162 patients (evaluable population). Overall, 155 (75%) of 208 patients had 600 treatment-emergent adverse events. A total of 38 drug-related treatment-emergent adverse events occurred in 29 (14%) patients; all were mild or moderate and most common were pyrexia and asthenia. Four deaths occurred during the study; none were considered treatment related. The post-hoc analysis showed similar results to the estimated historical success rate for NECT of 94%. Interpretation Given the high efficacy and favourable safety profile, acoziborole holds promise in the efforts to reach the WHO goal of interrupting HAT transmission by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UK Aid, Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, Médecins Sans Frontières, Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Stavros Niarchos Foundation, Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation, and the Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Foundation. Translation For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section

The flipside of eradicating a disease; human African trypanosomiasis in a woman in rural Democratic Republic of Congo: a case report

Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) is a neglected disease caused by the protozoan parasites Trypanosoma brucei and transmitted by tsetse flies that progresses in two phases. Symptoms in the first phase include fever, headaches, pruritus, lymphadenopathy, and in certain cases, hepato- and splenomegaly. Neurological disorders such as sleep disorder, aggressive behavior, logorrhea, psychotic reactions, and mood changes are signs of the second stage of the disease. Diagnosis follows complex algorithms, including serological testing and microscopy. Our case report illustrates the course of events of a 41-year old woman with sleep disorder, among other neurological symptoms, whose diagnosis was made seven months after the onset of symptoms. The patient had consulted two different hospitals in Kinshasa and was on the verge of being discharged from a third due to negative laboratory test results. This case report highlights the challenges that may arise when a disease is on the verge of eradication