Health Expenditure Scenarios in the New Member States: Country Report on Poland. ENEPRI Research Reports No. 47, 19 December 2007

The objective of this report is to present the model of future health care system revenues and expenditures in Poland, and to discuss assumptions for the projection and projection results. Expenditure analysis is based on ILO social budget model, part of which is health budget model. The model takes into account the revenue side of health care system as well, which is consistent with the above-mentioned discussion on health care system funding and its sustainability. The first part of the Report is dedicated to social, and especially health-related, expenditure models and projections applied in Poland. Following, detailed description of data and information used in the current projection is presented. Baseline projections of main demographic and macro-economic variables and indicators used in the model are shown, and the assumptions for the development of these indicators and their inter-relations are discussed. Three scenarios are presented: the baseline scenario, death-related costs scenario, and the scenario with different longevity improvements. Projection results cover both the revenue and the expenditure side of health care system. Finally, conclusions are made and policy recommendations are formulated, based on projection results

Scenarios For Health Expenditure in Poland

The report is a result of the Ageing, Health Status and Determinants of Health Expenditure (AHEAD) project within the EC 6th Framework programme. The objective of the research was to present the model of future health care system revenues and expenditures in Poland and to discuss projection assumptions and results. The projections are based on methodology adopted in the International Labour Organization (ILO) Social Budget model. The projection examines impact of demographic changes and changes in health status on future (up to 2050) health expenditures. Next to it, future changes in the labour market participation and their impact on the health care system revenues are examined. Impact of demography on the health care system financial balanced is examined in four different scenarios: baseline scenario, death-related costs scenario, different longevity scenario and diversified employment rates scenario. Results indicate dynamic and systematic increase of the health expenditures in the next 30 years. Afterwards the dynamics of this process is foreseen to slow down. Despite the increase of the revenues of the health care system, the system will face deficit in the close future. This holds for each scenario, however the size of the deficit differs depending on longevity and labour market participation assumptions. Results lead to a discussion on possible reforms of the health care system.health care system, demographic projection, health care system revenues and expenditures projection, Poland

Scenarios for Health Expenditure in Poland

Noailles Louis Marie Marc Antoine, vicomte de. Lecture du bulletin médical du roi, lors de la séance du 12 mars 1791. In: Archives Parlementaires de 1787 à 1860 - Première série (1787-1799) Tome XXIV - Du 10 mars 1791 au 12 avril 1791. Paris : Librairie Administrative P. Dupont, 1886. p. 38