GRADE Guidelines 30: the GRADE approach to assessing the certainty of modeled evidence—An overview in the context of health decision-making

Objectives: The objective of the study is to present the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) conceptual approach to the assessment of certainty of evidence from modeling studies (i.e., certainty associated with model outputs). / Study Design and Setting: Expert consultations and an international multidisciplinary workshop informed development of a conceptual approach to assessing the certainty of evidence from models within the context of systematic reviews, health technology assessments, and health care decisions. The discussions also clarified selected concepts and terminology used in the GRADE approach and by the modeling community. Feedback from experts in a broad range of modeling and health care disciplines addressed the content validity of the approach. / Results: Workshop participants agreed that the domains determining the certainty of evidence previously identified in the GRADE approach (risk of bias, indirectness, inconsistency, imprecision, reporting bias, magnitude of an effect, dose–response relation, and the direction of residual confounding) also apply when assessing the certainty of evidence from models. The assessment depends on the nature of model inputs and the model itself and on whether one is evaluating evidence from a single model or multiple models. We propose a framework for selecting the best available evidence from models: 1) developing de novo, a model specific to the situation of interest, 2) identifying an existing model, the outputs of which provide the highest certainty evidence for the situation of interest, either “off-the-shelf” or after adaptation, and 3) using outputs from multiple models. We also present a summary of preferred terminology to facilitate communication among modeling and health care disciplines. / Conclusion: This conceptual GRADE approach provides a framework for using evidence from models in health decision-making and the assessment of certainty of evidence from a model or models. The GRADE Working Group and the modeling community are currently developing the detailed methods and related guidance for assessing specific domains determining the certainty of evidence from models across health care–related disciplines (e.g., therapeutic decision-making, toxicology, environmental health, and health economics)

Evidence for the Complexity of MicroRNA-Mediated Regulation in Ovarian Cancer: A Systems Approach

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short (∼22 nucleotides) regulatory RNAs that can modulate gene expression and are aberrantly expressed in many diseases including cancer. Previous studies have shown that miRNAs inhibit the translation and facilitate the degradation of their targeted messenger RNAs (mRNAs) making them attractive candidates for use in cancer therapy. However, the potential clinical utility of miRNAs in cancer therapy rests heavily upon our ability to understand and accurately predict the consequences of fluctuations in levels of miRNAs within the context of complex tumor cells. To evaluate the predictive power of current models, levels of miRNAs and their targeted mRNAs were measured in laser captured micro-dissected (LCM) ovarian cancer epithelial cells (CEPI) and compared with levels present in ovarian surface epithelial cells (OSE). We found that the predicted inverse correlation between changes in levels of miRNAs and levels of their mRNA targets held for only ∼11% of predicted target mRNAs. We demonstrate that this low inverse correlation between changes in levels of miRNAs and their target mRNAs in vivo is not merely an artifact of inaccurate miRNA target predictions but the likely consequence of indirect cellular processes that modulate the regulatory effects of miRNAs in vivo. Our findings underscore the complexities of miRNA-mediated regulation in vivo and the necessity of understanding the basis of these complexities in cancer cells before the therapeutic potential of miRNAs can be fully realized

GRADE Guidelines 30: The GRADE Approach to Assessing the Certainty of Modelled Evidence - an Overview in the Context of Health Decision-making.

OBJECTIVES: To present the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) conceptual approach to the assessment of certainty of evidence from modelling studies (i.e. certainty associated with model outputs). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Expert consultations and, an international multi-disciplinary workshop informed development of a conceptual approach to assessing the certainty of evidence from models within the context of systematic reviews, health technology assessments, and health care decisions. The discussions also clarified selected concepts and terminology used in the GRADE approach and by the modelling community. Feedback from experts in a broad range of modelling and health care disciplines addressed the content validity of the approach. RESULTS: Workshop participants agreed, that the domains determining the certainty of evidence previously identified in the GRADE approach (risk of bias, indirectness, inconsistency, imprecision, reporting bias, magnitude of an effect, dose-response relation, and the direction of residual confounding) also apply when of assessing the certainty of evidence from models. The assessment depends on the nature of model inputs and the model itself and on whether one is evaluating evidence from a single model or multiple models. We propose a framework for selecting the best available evidence from models: 1) developing de novo a model specific to the situation of interest, 2) identifying an existing model the outputs of which provide the highest certainty evidence for the situation of interest, either "off the shelf" or after adaptation, and 3) using outputs from multiple models. We also present a summary of preferred terminology to facilitate communication among modelling and health care disciplines. CONCLUSIONS: This conceptual GRADE approach provides a framework for using evidence from models in health decision making and the assessment of certainty of evidence from a model or models. The GRADE Working Group and the modelling community are currently developing the detailed methods and related guidance for assessing specific domains determining the certainty of evidence from models across health care-related disciplines (e.g. therapeutic decision-making, toxicology, environmental health, health economics)