New Risks Ahead:The Eastward Enlargement of the Eurozone

Eastward enlargement is one of the hot topics in European economics. The accession of central and eastern European Countries (CEEC) into the European Union (EU) is accompanied by an extension of the eurozone to this region. This paper surveys likely outcomes and challenges of this specific feature of EU enlargement. Moreover, the ar-ticle represents the start of an international research project dealing with these ques-tions. Research is structured along different markets. Hence, the impact of an adoption of the euro is analysed for capital and labour markets as well as with respect to exchange rate and monetary policies. Our main position is that the euro has in general beneficiary ef-fects for the CEEC and the current EU in all examined markets. However, these bene-fits evolve mainly in the long run, whereas the short-term costs of adaptation to the new situation may be high. Although we believe that the present value of long-term benefits exceeds these costs, it is by no means clear that policy-makers will share this view. Due to the usual political-economy transformation, the assessment of costs and benefits may be different for politicians than compared to any overall perspective. If of-ficial policies become unforeseeable, so will private behaviour. International investors may reverse their capital flows, draining precious liquidity, and leading to currency and financial crises whenever they perceive the authorities’ commitment to EMU less credi-ble. This article highlights some thinkable mechanisms how any such crisis could evolve. It, thus, sets the agenda for further research, mainly, with the focus on appropriate policy strategies to keep adaptation costs as low as possible, minimise other external risks, without hampering the long-term benefits.EMU, EU enlargement, monetary integration

Childhood IQ and risk of bipolar disorder in adulthood: prospective birth cohort study

Background: Intellectual ability may be an endophenotypic marker for bipolar disorder. Aims: Within a large birth cohort, we aimed to assess whether childhood IQ (including both verbal IQ (VIQ) and performance IQ (PIQ) subscales) was predictive of lifetime features of bipolar disorder assessed in young adulthood. Method: We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a large UK birth cohort, to test for an association between measures of childhood IQ at age 8 years and lifetime manic features assessed at age 22–23 years using the Hypomania Checklist-32 (HCL-32; n=1881 individuals). An ordinary least squares linear regression model was used, with normal childhood IQ (range 90–109) as the referent group. We adjusted analyses for confounding factors, including gender, ethnicity, handedness, maternal social class at recruitment, maternal age, maternal history of depression and maternal education. Results: There was a positive association between IQ at age 8 years and lifetime manic features at age 22–23 years (Pearson's correlation coefficient 0.159 (95% CI 0.120–0.198), P>0.001). Individuals in the lowest decile of manic features had a mean full-scale IQ (FSIQ) which was almost 10 points lower than those in the highest decile of manic features: mean FSIQ 100.71 (95% CI 98.74–102.6) v. 110.14 (95% CI 107.79–112.50), P>0.001. The association between IQ and manic features was present for FSIQ, VIQ and for PIQ but was strongest for VIQ. Conclusions: A higher childhood IQ score, and high VIQ in particular, may represent a marker of risk for the later development of bipolar disorder. This finding has implications for understanding of how liability to bipolar disorder may have been selected through generations. It will also inform future genetic studies at the interface of intelligence, creativity and bipolar disorder and is relevant to the developmental trajectory of bipolar disorder. It may also improve approaches to earlier detection and treatment of bipolar disorder in adolescents and young adults

Do jumbo-CD holders care about anything?

Uninsured deposits represent a theoretically appealing but relatively untested alternative to subordinated debt for incorporating market discipline into banking supervision. To make the deposit market a useful supervisory tool, it is necessary to know what types of risk are priced by depositors and in what proportions. Using a clustering technique to select from among a large set of potential regressors, as well as a carefully chosen set of control variables, we attempt to determine the types of risk that cause uninsured depositors to react in both the price and quantity dimensions. As a benchmark for economic significance, we estimate similar regressions on supervisory ratings. We find that, in contrast to government supervisors, depositors have not priced most types of risk since 1997. Indeed, the only risk variables that consistently come up as statistically significant are those that measure capital adequacy. Our interpretation of these results is that, because aggregate banking conditions are good, it is not worth depositors' effort to investigate individual bank quality very carefully. We conclude that, in the current economic and regulatory environment, the market is content to delegate most of its monitoring and discipline to the government. To the extent that it does monitor, it only monitors capital. The jumbo-CD market is thus not likely to be of much supervisory use, particularly given that examiners already have good information about capital levels. The depositor emphasis on capital also supports the conjecture that market discipline was responsible for much of the recent capital build-up.Bank deposits ; Bank supervision

The Relationship between Real-Time EEG Engagement, Distraction and Workload Estimates and Simulator-Based Driving Performance

Identifying potentially impaired drivers is often dependent upon using cognitive testing from a controlled environment (clinic, laboratory) to predict behavior in a dynamic and unpredictable real world driving environment. The goal of this study was to determine the feasibility, and validity, of using a wireless EEG system to ultimately differentiate between impaired and unimpaired drivers. We utilized the B-Alert X10 portable wireless EEG/ECG system and applied previously validated EEG algorithms estimating engagement, workload, and distraction within a sample of normal control (n = 10) and HIV seropositive individuals (n = 14). Participants underwent a 30-minute fully interactive driving simulation. Overall, the HIV+ group evidenced significantly higher distraction during the simulation. When grouped according to poor and good performers on the simulation (regardless of HIV serostatus), those performing worse on the simulation had higher distraction, with a trend for lower workload, levels. We then examined EEG profiles immediately preceding a crash. Prior to a crash, participants evidenced a significant increase in distraction ~ 10-14 seconds leading up to the crash; the greatest increase was seen in the HIV+ group. These preliminary data support the potential utility of using EEG data in patient populations to identify individuals who might be at risk for impaired drivin

Comparison of the Effects of Early Pregnancy with Human Interferon, Alpha 2 (IFNA2), on Gene Expression in Bovine Endometrium

Interferon tau (IFNT), a type I IFN similar to alpha IFNs (IFNA), is the pregnancy recognition signal produced by the ruminant conceptus. To elucidate specific effects of bovine IFNT and of other conceptus-derived factors, endometrial gene expression changes during early pregnancy were compared to gene expression changes after intrauterine application of human IFNA2. In experiment 1, endometrial tissue samples were obtained on Day (D) 12, D15, and D18 postmating from nonpregnant or pregnant heifers. In experiment 2, heifers were treated from D14 to D16 of the estrous cycle with an intrauterine device releasing IFNA2 or, as controls, placebo lipid extrudates or PBS only. Endometrial biopsies were performed after flushing the uterus. All samples from both experiments were analyzed with an Affymetrix Bovine Genome Array. Experiment 1 revealed differential gene expression between pregnant and nonpregnant endometria on D15 and D18. In experiment 2, IFNA2 treatment resulted in differential gene expression in the bovine endometrium. Comparison of the data sets from both studies identified genes that were differentially expressed in response to IFNA2 but not in response to pregnancy on D15 or D18. In addition, genes were found that were differentially expressed during pregnancy but not after IFNA2 treatment. In experiment 3, spatiotemporal alterations in expression of selected genes were determined in uteri from nonpregnant and early pregnant heifers using in situ hybridization. The overall findings of this study suggest differential effects of bovine IFNT compared to human IFNA2 and that some pregnancy-specific changes in the endometrium are elicited by conceptus-derived factors other than IFNT

High-speed CH planar laser-induced fluorescence imaging using a multimode-pumped optical parametric oscillator

We report on high-speed CH planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) imaging in turbulent diffusion flames using a multimode-pumped optical parametric oscillator (OPO). The OPO is pumped by the third-harmonic output of a multimode Nd:YAG cluster for direct signal excitation in the A-X (0,0) band of the CH radical. The lasing threshold, conversion efficiency, and linewidth are shown to depend on the number of pump passes in the ring cavity of the OPO. Single-shot CH PLIF images are acquired at 10 kHz with excitation energy up to 6 mJ=pulse at 431:1nm. Signalto- noise ratios of ∼25–35 are the highest yet reported for high-speed CH PLIF

On the action potential as a propagating density pulse and the role of anesthetics

The Hodgkin-Huxley model of nerve pulse propagation relies on ion currents through specific resistors called ion channels. We discuss a number of classical thermodynamic findings on nerves that are not contained in this classical theory. Particularly striking is the finding of reversible heat changes, thickness and phase changes of the membrane during the action potential. Data on various nerves rather suggest that a reversible density pulse accompanies the action potential of nerves. Here, we attempted to explain these phenomena by propagating solitons that depend on the presence of cooperative phase transitions in the nerve membrane. These transitions are, however, strongly influenced by the presence of anesthetics. Therefore, the thermodynamic theory of nerve pulses suggests a explanation for the famous Meyer-Overton rule that states that the critical anesthetic dose is linearly related to the solubility of the drug in the membranes.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figure

MME-based attitude dynamics identification and estimation for SAMPEX

A method is described for obtaining optimal attitude estimation algorithms for spacecraft lacking attitude rate measurement devices (rate gyros), and then demonstrated using actual flight data from the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) spacecraft. SAMPEX does not have on-board rate sensing, and relies on sun sensors and a three-axis magnetometer for attitude determination. Problems arise since typical attitude estimation is accomplished by filtering measurements of both attitude and attitude rates. Rates are nearly always sampled much more densely than are attitudes. Thus, the absence/loss of rate data normally reduces both the total amount of data available and the sampling density (in time) by a substantial fraction. As a result, the sensitivity of the estimates to model uncertainty and to measurement noise increases. In order to maintain accuracy in the attitude estimates, there is increased need for accurate models of the rotational dynamics. The proposed approach is based on the minimum model error (MME) optimal estimation strategy, which has been successfully applied to estimation of poorly modeled dynamic systems which are relatively sparsely and/or noisily measured. The MME estimates may be used to construct accurate models of the system dynamics (i.e. perform system model identification). Thus, an MME-based approach directly addresses the problems created by absence of attitude rate measurements