Elections in the time of covid-19: the triple crises around Malawi’s 2020 presidential elections

In June 2020, in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, Malawians went to the polls and voted to replace the incumbent government. Much like other natural disasters, the Covid-19 pandemic and accompanying economic and political shocks had the potential to shake voters’ confidence in the government, reduce turnout, and/or reduce support for the incumbent if voters associated them with the ills of the pandemic. In this paper, we examine the extent to which the Coronavirus pandemic influenced Malawi’s 2020 elections. We consider how fear of infection and economic distress affected citizens’ trust and confidence in President Mutharika’s government, their willingness to turn out to vote, and their choices at the polls using data collected pre- and post-Covid. We find that fears about the virus and its economic impact did influence trust and confidence in the government to handle Covid but had little to no effect on either abstention or vote choice

Symptoms and Stereotypes: Perceptions and Responses to Covid-19 in Malawi and Zambia

A large literature documents Covid-19’s health and economic effects. We focus instead on its political impact and its potential to exacerbate identity divisions, in particular. Psychologists argue that contagious disease increases threat perceptions and provokes policing of group boundaries. We explore how insider-outsider status and symptoms of illness shape perceptions of infection, reported willingness to help, and desire to restrict free movement of an ailing neighbor using a phone-based survey experiment administered three times in two neighboring African countries during different stages of the pandemic: Malawi, from May 5 to June 2, 2020 (n = 4,641); Zambia, from July 2 to August 13, 2020 (n = 2,198); and Malawi again, from March 9 to May 1, 2021 (n = 4,356). We study identities that are salient in Malawi and Zambia but have not induced significant prior violence, making our study a relatively hard test of disease threat theories. We find that symptoms more strongly shape perceptions and projected behavior than insider-outsider status in both countries and across time, suggesting that there are limits to the ability of pandemics to independently provoke identity politics de novo

Hyperhydration to Improve Kidney Outcomes in Children with Shiga Toxin-Producing E. coli Infection: A multinational embedded cluster crossover randomized trial (the HIKO STEC trial)

BACKGROUND: Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) infections affect children and adults worldwide, and treatment remain solely supportive. Up to 15-20% of children infected by high-risk STEC (i.e., E. coli that produce Shiga toxin 2) develop hemolytic anemia, thrombocytopenia, and kidney failure (i.e., hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS)), over half of whom require acute dialysis and 3% die. Although no therapy is widely accepted as being able to prevent the development of HUS and its complications, several observational studies suggest that intravascular volume expansion (hyperhydration) may prevent end organ damage. A randomized trial is needed to confirm or refute this hypothesis. METHODS: We will conduct a pragmatic, embedded, cluster-randomized, crossover trial in 26 pediatric institutions to determine if hyperhydration, compared to conservative fluid management, improves outcomes in 1040 children with high-risk STEC infections. The primary outcome is major adverse kidney events within 30 days (MAKE30), a composite measure that includes death, initiation of new renal replacement therapy, or persistent kidney dysfunction. Secondary outcomes include life-threatening, extrarenal complications, and development of HUS. Pathway eligible children will be treated per institutional allocation to each pathway. In the hyperhydration pathway, all eligible children are hospitalized and administered 200% maintenance balanced crystalloid fluids up to targets of 10% weight gain and 20% reduction in hematocrit. Sites in the conservative fluid management pathway manage children as in- or outpatients, based on clinician preference, with the pathway focused on close laboratory monitoring, and maintenance of euvolemia. Based on historical data, we estimate that 10% of children in our conservative fluid management pathway will experience the primary outcome. With 26 clusters enrolling a mean of 40 patients each with an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.11, we will have 90% power to detect a 5% absolute risk reduction. DISCUSSION: HUS is a devastating illness with no treatment options. This pragmatic study will determine if hyperhydration can reduce morbidity associated with HUS in children with high-risk STEC infection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05219110 . Registered on February 1, 2022

Stigma, Trust, and procedural integrity: Covid-19 testing in Malawi

An emerging consensus in public health views testing for Covid-19 as key to managing the pandemic. It is often assumed that citizens have a strong desire to know their Covid-19 status, and will therefore take advantage of testing opportunities. This may not be the case in all contexts, however, especially those where citizens perceive stigma associated with the Covid-19, have low trust in health institutions, and doubt the procedural integrity of the testing process. This article explores willingness to receive a free Covid-19 test via a vignette experiment (conjoint design) embedded in a phone survey conducted in Malawi in May 2020. The experiment varied test provider (public clinic versus international health organization), proximity to illness, and reassurance of confidentiality. We find that Malawians expect higher uptake of testing in their community when the international health organization offered the test rather than a public clinic, an effect we attribute to higher trust in the organization and/or perceptions of greater capacity to ensure procedural integrity. The confidentiality reassurance did not substantially alter beliefs about the privacy of results, but did increase doubts about the willingness of community members to get tested in a public health clinic. Our findings suggest the importance of considering the demand side of testing in addition to well-known challenges of supply

The ABCs of Covid-19 prevention in Malawi: Authority, benefits, and costs of compliance

A wide array of authorities—from religious leaders to government ministers—call upon citizens to take preventative measures against Covid-19. Which authorities can most effectively gain public compliance, and which measures will the public take up? Moreover, do people comply with authorities out of respect for their legitimacy, due to their expertise, or for fear of sanctioning? Answers to these questions are important for development practitioners, who need to understand how different partnerships might affect health behavior, and for scholars interested in understanding authority, legitimacy, and compliance. We explore these questions using a conjoint experiment embedded in a telephone survey of 641 Malawians. Individuals in our sample are more likely to say that they will comply with precautionary measures when the costs are low and expected benefits are high. Respondents view both traditional authorities and hospital heads as legitimately issuing directives and having the ability to monitor and sanction non-compliance, but appear to comply more with hospital heads and to do so out of respect for their expertise. These results emphasize how who issues directives affects whether individuals comply and provides insights as to why they do so. The findings also reflect individuals’ cost-benefit calculations when considering precautionary measures, highlighting the importance of steps that can reduce costs (e.g., food security or income measures) or accurately reflect risks (e.g., information signaling the prevalence of Covid-19). The study not only helps to address the Coronavirus crisis but also has important implications for broader questions of authority and compliance

Lactobacillus Rhamnosus GG versus Placebo for Acute Gastroenteritis in Children.

BackgroundAcute gastroenteritis develops in millions of children in the United States every year, and treatment with probiotics is common. However, data to support the use of probiotics in this population are limited.MethodsWe conducted a prospective, randomized, double-blind trial involving children 3 months to 4 years of age with acute gastroenteritis who presented to one of 10 U.S. pediatric emergency departments. Participants received a 5-day course of Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG at a dose of 1×1010 colony-forming units twice daily or matching placebo. Follow-up surveys were conducted daily for 5 days and again 14 days after enrollment and 1 month after enrollment. The primary outcome was moderate-to-severe gastroenteritis, which was defined as an illness episode with a total score on the modified Vesikari scale of 9 or higher (scores range from 0 to 20, with higher scores indicating more severe disease), within 14 days after enrollment. Secondary outcomes included the duration and frequency of diarrhea and vomiting, the duration of day-care absenteeism, and the rate of household transmission (defined as the development of symptoms of gastroenteritis in previously asymptomatic household contacts).ResultsAmong the 971 participants, 943 (97.1%) completed the trial. The median age was 1.4 years (interquartile range, 0.9 to 2.3), and 513 participants (52.9%) were male. The modified Vesikari scale score for the 14-day period after enrollment was 9 or higher in 55 of 468 participants (11.8%) in the L. rhamnosus GG group and in 60 of 475 participants (12.6%) in the placebo group (relative risk, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.68 to 1.35; P=0.83). There were no significant differences between the L. rhamnosus GG group and the placebo group in the duration of diarrhea (median, 49.7 hours in the L. rhamnosus GG group and 50.9 hours in the placebo group; P=0.26), duration of vomiting (median, 0 hours in both groups; P=0.17), or day-care absenteeism (median, 2 days in both groups; P=0.67) or in the rate of household transmission (10.6% and 14.1% in the two groups, respectively; P=0.16).ConclusionsAmong preschool children with acute gastroenteritis, those who received a 5-day course of L. rhamnosus GG did not have better outcomes than those who received placebo. (Funded by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01773967 .)