Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough

Metapopulation rescue effects are thought to be key to the persistence of many acute immunizing infections. Yet the enhancement of persistence through spatial coupling has not been previously quantified. Here we estimate the metapopulation rescue effects for four childhood infections using global WHO reported incidence data by comparing persistence on island countries vs all other countries, while controlling for key variables such as vaccine cover, birth rates and economic development. The relative risk of extinction on islands is significantly higher, and approximately double the risk of extinction in mainland countries. Furthermore, as may be expected, infections with longer infectious periods tend to have the strongest metapopulation rescue effects. Our results quantitate the notion that demography and local community size controls disease persistence

Narrow Line Cooling and Momentum-Space Crystals

Narrow line laser cooling is advancing the frontier for experiments ranging from studies of fundamental atomic physics to high precision optical frequency standards. In this paper, we present an extensive description of the systems and techniques necessary to realize 689 nm 1S0 - 3P1 narrow line cooling of atomic 88Sr. Narrow line cooling and trapping dynamics are also studied in detail. By controlling the relative size of the power broadened transition linewidth and the single-photon recoil frequency shift, we show that it is possible to continuously bridge the gap between semiclassical and quantum mechanical cooling. Novel semiclassical cooling process, some of which are intimately linked to gravity, are also explored. Moreover, for laser frequencies tuned above the atomic resonance, we demonstrate momentum-space crystals containing up to 26 well defined lattice points. Gravitationally assisted cooling is also achieved with blue-detuned light. Theoretically, we find the blue detuned dynamics are universal to Doppler limited systems. This paper offers the most comprehensive study of narrow line laser cooling to date.Comment: 14 pages, 19 figure

Water-soluble organic aerosol in the Los Angeles Basin and outflow regions: Airborne and ground measurements during the 2010 CalNex field campaign

A particle-into-liquid sampler coupled to a total organic carbon analyzer (PILS-TOC) quantified particulate water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) mass concentrations during the May 2010 deployment of the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) Twin Otter in the CalNex field study. WSOC data collected during 16 flights provide the first spatiotemporal maps of WSOC in the San Joaquin Valley, Los Angeles Basin, and outflow regions of the Basin. WSOC was consistently higher in concentration within the Los Angeles Basin, where sea breeze transport and Basin topography strongly influence the spatial distribution of WSOC. The highest WSOC levels were associated with fire plumes, highlighting the importance of both primary and secondary sources for WSOC in the region. Residual pollution layers enriched with WSOC are observed aloft up to an altitude of 3.2 km and the highest WSOC levels for each flight were typically observed above 500 m. Simultaneous ground WSOC measurements during aircraft overpasses in Pasadena and Riverside typically exhibit lower levels, especially when relative humidity (RH) was higher aloft suggestive of the influence of aerosol-phase water. This points to the underestimation of the radiative effects of WSOC when using only surface measurements. Reduced aerosol-phase water in the eastern desert outflow region likely promotes the re-partitioning of WSOC to the gas phase and suppression of processes to produce these species (partitioning, multiphase chemistry, photolytic production); as a result, WSOC is reduced relative to sulfate (but not as much as nitrate) as aerosol is advected from the Basin to the outflows

Molecular Cloning and Heterologous Expression of the Dehydrophos Biosynthetic Gene Cluster

SummaryDehydrophos is a vinyl phosphonate tripeptide produced by Streptomyces luridus with demonstrated broad-spectrum antibiotic activity. To identify genes necessary for biosynthesis of this unusual compound we screened a fosmid library of S. luridus for the presence of the phosphoenolpyruvate mutase gene, which is required for biosynthesis of most phosphonates. Integration of one such fosmid clone into the chromosome of S. lividans led to heterologous production of dehydrophos. Deletion analysis of this clone allowed identification of the minimal contiguous dehydrophos cluster, which contained 17 open reading frames (ORFs). Bioinformatic analyses of these ORFs are consistent with a proposed biosynthetic pathway that generates dehydrophos from phosphoenolpyruvate. The early steps of this pathway are supported by analysis of intermediates accumulated by blocked mutants and in vitro biochemical experiments

Nursing practice on Midwifery "Postpartum group guidance" by Okayama University School of Health Sciences Advanced Course of Midwifery

Background: Chikungunya is an emerging arbovirus that has caused explosive outbreaks in Africa and Asia for decades and invaded the Americas just over a year ago. During this ongoing invasion, it has spread to 45 countries where it has been transmitted autochthonously, infecting nearly 1.3 million people in total.Methods: here, we made use of weekly, country-level case reports to infer relationships between transmission and two putative climatic drivers: temperature and precipitation averaged across each country on a monthly basis. To do so, we used a TSIR model that enabled us to infer a parametric relationship between climatic drivers and transmission potential, and we applied a new method for incorporating a probabilistic description of the serial interval distribution into the TSIR framework.Results: we found significant relationships between transmission and linear and quadratic terms for temperature and precipitation and a linear term for log incidence during the previous pathogen generation. The lattermost suggests that case numbers three to four weeks ago are largely predictive of current case numbers. This effect is quite nonlinear at the country level, however, due to an estimated mixing parameter of 0.74. Relationships between transmission and the climatic variables that we estimated were biologically plausible and in line with expectations.Conclusions: our analysis suggests that autochthonous transmission of Chikungunya in the Americas can be correlated successfully with putative climatic drivers, even at the coarse scale of countries and using long-term average climate data. Overall, this provides a preliminary suggestion that successfully forecasting the future trajectory of a Chikungunya outbreak and the receptivity of virgin areas may be possible. Our results also provide tentative estimates of timeframes and areas of greatest risk, and our extension of the TSIR model provides a novel tool for modeling vector-borne disease transmission

Persistent starspot signals on M dwarfs: multi-wavelength Doppler observations with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder and Keck/HIRES

Young, rapidly-rotating M dwarfs exhibit prominent starspots, which create quasiperiodic signals in their photometric and Doppler spectroscopic measurements. The periodic Doppler signals can mimic radial velocity (RV) changes expected from orbiting exoplanets. Exoplanets can be distinguished from activity-induced false positives by the chromaticity and long-term incoherence of starspot signals, but these qualities are poorly constrained for fully-convective M stars. Coherent photometric starspot signals on M dwarfs may persist for hundreds of rotations, and the wavelength dependence of starspot RV signals may not be consistent between stars due to differences in their magnetic fields and active regions. We obtained precise multi-wavelength RVs of four rapidly-rotating M dwarfs (AD Leo, G 227-22, GJ 1245B, GJ 3959) using the near-infrared (NIR) Habitable-zone Planet Finder, and the optical Keck/HIRES spectrometer. Our RVs are complemented by photometry from Kepler, TESS, and the Las Cumbres Observatory (LCO) network of telescopes. We found that all four stars exhibit large spot-induced Doppler signals at their rotation periods, and investigated the longevity and optical-to-NIR chromaticity for these signals. The phase curves remain coherent much longer than is typical for Sunlike stars. Their chromaticity varies, and one star (GJ 3959) exhibits optical and NIR RV modulation consistent in both phase and amplitude. In general, though, we find that the NIR amplitudes are lower than their optical counterparts. We conclude that starspot modulation for rapidly-rotating M stars frequently remains coherent for hundreds of stellar rotations, and gives rise to Doppler signals that, due to this coherence, may be mistaken for exoplanets.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Composition and hygroscopicity of the Los Angeles Aerosol: CalNex

Aircraft-based measurements of aerosol composition, either bulk or single-particle, and both subsaturated and supersaturated hygroscopicity were made in the Los Angeles Basin and its outflows during May 2010 during the CalNex field study. Aerosol composition evolves from source-rich areas in the western Basin to downwind sites in the eastern Basin, evidenced by transition from an external to internal mixture, as well as enhancements in organic O : C ratio, the amount of organics and nitrate internally mixed on almost all particle types, and coating thickness on refractory black carbon (rBC). Transport into hot, dilute outflow regions leads to significant volatilization of semivolatile material, resulting in a unimodal aerosol comprising primarily oxygenated, low-volatility, water-soluble organics and sulfate. The fraction of particles with rBC or soot cores is between 27 and 51% based on data from a Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) and Aerosol Time of Flight Mass Spectrometer (ATOFMS). Secondary organics appear to inhibit subsaturated water uptake in aged particles, while CCN activity is enhanced with photochemical age. A biomass-burning event resulted in suppression of subsaturated hygroscopicity but enhancement in CCN activity, suggesting that BB particles may be nonhygroscopic at subsaturated RH but are important sources of CCN. Aerosol aging and biomass burning can lead to discrepancies between subsaturated and supersaturated hygroscopicity that may be related to mixing state. In the cases of biomass burning aerosol and aged particles coated with secondary material, more than a single parameter representation of subsaturated hygroscopicity and CCN activity is needed

TOI-3785 b: A Low-Density Neptune Orbiting an M2-Dwarf Star

Using both ground-based transit photometry and high-precision radial velocity (RV) spectroscopy, we confirm the planetary nature of TOI-3785 b. This transiting Neptune orbits an M2-Dwarf star with a period of ~4.67 days, a planetary radius of 5.14 +/- 0.16 Earth Radii, a mass of 14.95 +4.10, -3.92 Earth Masses, and a density of 0.61 +0.18, -0.17 g/cm^3. TOI-3785 b belongs to a rare population of Neptunes (4 Earth Radii < Rp < 7 Earth Radii) orbiting cooler, smaller M-dwarf host stars, of which only ~10 have been confirmed. By increasing the number of confirmed planets, TOI-3785 b offers an opportunity to compare similar planets across varying planetary and stellar parameter spaces. Moreover, with a high transmission spectroscopy metric (TSM) of ~150 combined with a relatively cool equilibrium temperature of 582 +/- 16 K and an inactive host star, TOI-3785 b is one of the more promising low-density M-dwarf Neptune targets for atmospheric follow-up. Future investigation into atmospheric mass loss rates of TOI-3785 b may yield new insights into the atmospheric evolution of these low-mass gas planets around M-dwarfs.Comment: 22 pages, 6 figures, 6 tables, Submitted to A

Persistent Starspot Signals on M Dwarfs: Multiwavelength Doppler Observations with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder and Keck/HIRES

Young, rapidly rotating M dwarfs exhibit prominent starspots, which create quasiperiodic signals in their photometric and Doppler spectroscopic measurements. The periodic Doppler signals can mimic radial velocity (RV) changes expected from orbiting exoplanets. Exoplanets can be distinguished from activity-induced false positives by the chromaticity and long-term incoherence of starspot signals, but these qualities are poorly constrained for fully convective M stars. Coherent photometric starspot signals on M dwarfs may persist for hundreds of rotations, and the wavelength dependence of starspot RV signals may not be consistent between stars due to differences in their magnetic fields and active regions. We obtained precise multiwavelength RVs of four rapidly rotating M dwarfs (AD Leo, G227-22, GJ 1245B, GJ 3959) using the near-infrared (NIR) Habitable-zone Planet Finder and the optical Keck/HIRES spectrometer. Our RVs are complemented by photometry from Kepler, TESS, and the Las Cumbres Observatory network of telescopes. We found that all four stars exhibit large spot-induced Doppler signals at their rotation periods, and investigated the longevity and optical-to-NIR chromaticity for these signals. The phase curves remain coherent much longer than is typical for Sunlike stars. Their chromaticity varies, and one star (GJ 3959) exhibits optical and NIR RV modulation consistent in both phase and amplitude. In general, though, we find that the NIR amplitudes are lower than their optical counterparts. We conclude that starspot modulation for rapidly rotating M stars frequently remains coherent for hundreds of stellar rotations and gives rise to Doppler signals that, due to this coherence, may be mistaken for exoplanets