Energy system and economy-wide implications of a rapid transition to decarbonized energy in South Africa

Developed as well as developing countries will have to increase their ambition relative to their stated Nationally Determined Contributions to limit global temperature increases to 2êC above pre-industrial levels. South Africa's Nationally Determined Contribution, in line with national policy, is to follow a peak, plateau, and decline emissions trajectory to 2050, with the contribution post-2030 contingent on a fair contribution from other countries. Given the high levels of unemployment, poverty, and inequality in South Africa, there are concerns that a rapid transition to a low-carbon energy system would have severe socioeconomic consequences. This paper builds on initial work from the Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project, and analyses the impacts on the energy system and the economy of an increase in ambition, in order to shed light on these concerns. The key policy recommendation from this analysis is that further investments in fossil fuel infrastructure in South Africa will have significant negative socioeconomic implications, and that further work should be done to reassess development pathways that could mitigate these negative impacts

The development of a linked modelling framework for analysing the socioeconomic impacts of energy and climate policies in South Africa

This paper presents some methodological improvements made to the linked SATIM-eSAGE energy-economy-environment modelling framework for analysing energy and climate policy in South Africa. The improvements include the linking of the households and the other economic sectors of the eSAGE economy-wide model to the SATIM energy model. Two scenarios are used to illustrate the benefits of having the new links, which include an energy efficiency scenario and an ambitious climate mitigation scenario. The results show that there are significant socio-economic benefits in having a more energy-efficient economy. The work presented in the paper provides some solid foundations for further work on the energy-economy-environment policy arena for South Africa

Investigating the current and future role of paraffin in South Africa

This research investigates what the future of paraffin could and should be in South Africa, in particular whether this could be envisioned as transforming paraffin into a safe fuel for households. Alternatively, might South Africa look to assist households with a transition towards other modern fuels

Policy options for the sustainable development of Zambia’s electricity sector

This paper aims at understanding how Zambia’s electricity system would be affected by droughts (due to a dry year) and how the system’s adaptive capacity could be improved. Hydropower currently supplies 99% of the total electricity in Zambia, and concerns have been raised because many climate change studies project increased occurrences of dry years in the Southern Africa region. Different economic and climatic scenarios were explored to understand their impact on the development of Zambia’s power generation system, and what policies and strategies could be adopted to mitigate these impacts on security of supply and average generation costs, which directly affect the electricity price. The results show that a dry year has significant impact on the average generating cost since hydropower continues to dominate the system. Diversifying the system does not improve the adaptive capacity of the system but only increases the average cost of generating electricity in an average year. The most cost effective way of increasing the system’s adaptive capacity is by importing electricity and gradually increasing share of renewable and coal technologies in the system. Further research on how electricity trade in Southern Africa could be enhanced, should be done

Quantifying the energy needs of the transport sector for South Africa: a bottom-up model

Transport is a large consumer of energy in South Africa and vital for economic development. Currently the transport sector consumes 28% of final energy, the bulk of which, 97%, is in the form of liquid fuels. As the population grows and becomes wealthier, so the demand for passenger transport and private vehicles increases; similarly, rising GDP drives the demand for freight transport. Supply interruptions are costly to the economy and careful long‐term planning is required to ensure that there is sufficient infrastructure to support the efficient functioning and growth of the transport sector in the future

Energy emissions: a modelling input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process

Emissions from energy supply and use constitute by far the largest part of South Africa’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Hence energy modeling is a key analytical basis for the information provided to the long-term mitigation scenarios (LTMS) process. This report contains the technical information provided by the energy modeling team at the Energy Rserach Centre, led by Alison Hughes, to the Scenario Building Team which developed the LTMS scenarios. The information was integrated into the overall Technical Report (with appendices), its Technical Summary and the Scenario Document

An analysis of energy consumption for a selection of countries in the Southern African Development Community

This paper examines the energy consumption, supply and resources of some of the countries in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in 2005, the base year for this analysis. The region is rich in energy resources and currently enjoys relatively stable and affordable electricity. Except in the case of Botswana, Mauritius, Namibia and South Africa, final energy demand is dominated by the residential sector in the form of biomass. Energy consumption or final energy demand in Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe is projected to 2030 using a Long Range Energy Alternatives Plan-ning (LEAP) model in a ‘business as usual’ scenario, the other countries being left out because of poor quality data. The projections are carried out by relating historic sectoral GDP and population growth in each country to energy demand and then using the historical link and the projections of these drivers to project energy demand. The analysis under this ‘business as usual’ scenario seems to indicate that we can expect to see a large increase in consumption in these countries, especially in the form of biomass and electricity. In both cases, supply is a concern. Having established what the present resources are; what some of the supply elements are currently in place; what the base-year demand is; and some basic relationships between demand and socio-economic drivers, this paper sets the stage for further studies that include the future energy supply; regional trade; and scenario analysis using indicators of sustainable development for the region. However, further analysis of the regional energy system, is only valuable if it is supported by good data. A reliable energy balance is needed for the countries not modelled here, and in the case of the modelled countries, better data is also needed, especially in the use biomass

Road transport vehicles in South Africa towards 2050: Factors influencing technology choice and implications for fuel supply

The South African transport sector is estimated to emit 60 MtCO2eq and require 800 PJ of energy, similar in scale to industrial energy demand and emissions. The sector is forecast to potentially eclipse industry in this regard if conventional vehicle choices and travel modes persist. This paper explores scenarios of transport technology choices and demand in a future of uncertain fuel and technology costs, and the consequences for energy supply and greenhouse gas emissions. It explores the extent of electric vehicle (EV) adoption and the implication of fuel migration from petroleum products. The preference for alternative fuels such as hydrogen, liquid biofuels and natural gas is also investigated. The evolution of road transport in South Africa towards 2050 is investigated utilising the South African TIMES model, a full energy sector least-cost optimisation model that relies on a rich technological database of the entire energy supply and demand system. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are shown to be a viable option in freight and public transport, potentially meeting 70% of travel demand by 2045. The private passenger and light commercial sectors emerge as the main market for electric vehicles, potentially accounting for 80% of new vehicle sales by 2045. Electricity as a transport fuel could account for 30% of fuel supply and reduce transport emissions to half of present day estimates. However, the key uncertainty driving EV adoption is future vehicle costs and crude oil prices, which could dampen EV uptake. Another main finding is that petroleum-dependent vehicles remain an important vehicle class, and that re-investment in existing crude oil refineries to conform to Euro5 standards is a likely requirement. There seems to be little indication, however, that additional refining capacity would be economically viable within the planning horizon. Document type: Articl

An integrated approach to modelling energy policy in South Africa: Evaluating carbon taxes and electricity import restrictions

We link a bottom-up energy sector model to a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model of South Africa in order to examine two of the country's main energy policy considerations: (i) the introduction of a carbon tax and (ii) liberalization of import supply restrictions in order to exploit regional hydropower potential. Our results suggest substantial reductions in the country's greenhouse gas emissions when these two policy changes are jointly implemented (relative to business-as-usual baseline scenario). Moreover, the two policies impose essentially no cost to economic growth, although there is a 1 per cent reduction in employment. From our analysis we conclude that a regional energy strategy, anchored in hydropower, represents a potentially inexpensive approach to reducing emissions in South Africa. Moreover, combining carbon taxes with a removal of import restrictions lessens the burden of adjustment on politically sensitive and economically important sectors