Meteorological conditions and cloud effects on surface radiation balance near Helheim glacier and Jakobshavn isbræ (Greenland)using ground-based observations.

The surface radiation budget is an essential component of the total energy exchange between the atmosphere and the Earth’s surface. Measurements of radiative fluxes near/on ice surfaces are sparse in the polar regions, including on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), and the effects of cloud on radiative fluxes are still poorly studied. In this work, we assess the impacts of cloud on radiative fluxes using two metrics: the longwave-equivalent cloudiness, derived from long-wave radiation measurements, and the cloud transmittance factor, obtained from short-wave radiation data. The metrics are applied to radiation data from two automatic weather stations located over the bare ground near the ice front of Helheim (HG, 66.3290°N, 38.1460°W) and Jakobshavn Isbræ(JI, 69.2220°N, 49.8150°W) on the GrIS. Comparisons of meteorological parameters, surface radiation fluxes, and cloud metrics show significant differences between the two sites. The cloud transmittance factor is higher at HG than at JI, and the incoming short-wave radiation in the summer at HG is about 50.0 W m−2 larger than at JI. Cloud metrics derived at the two sites reveal partly cloudy conditions were frequent (42 and 65% of the period at HG and JI) with a high dependency on the wind direction. The total cloud radiative effect (CREnet) generally increases during melt season at the two stations due to long-wave CRE enhancement by cloud fraction. CREnet decreases from May to June and increases afterward, due to the strengthened short-wave CRE. The annually averaged CREnet were 3.0 ± 7.4 W m−2 and 1.9±15.1 W m−2 at JI and HG. CREnet estimated from AWS indicates that clouds cool the JI and HG during melt season at different rates.publishedVersio

Combined influence of oceanic and atmospheric circulations on Greenland sea ice concentration

The amount and spatial extent of Greenland Sea (GS) ice are primarily controlled by the sea ice export across the Fram Strait (FS) and by local seasonal sea ice formation, melting, and sea ice dynamics. In this study, using satellite passive microwave sea ice observations, atmospheric and a coupled ocean-sea ice reanalysis system, TOPAZ4, we show that both the atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the Nordic Seas (NS) act in tandem to explain the SIC variability in the south-western GS. Northerly wind anomalies associated with anomalously low sea level pressure (SLP) over the NS reduce the sea ice export in the south-western GS due to westward Ekman drift of sea ice. On the other hand, the positive wind stress curl strengthens the cyclonic Greenland Sea Gyre (GSG) circulation in the central GS. An intensified GSG circulation may result in stronger Ekman divergence of surface cold and fresh waters away from the south-western GS. Both of these processes can reduce the freshwater content and weaken the upper-ocean stratification in the south-western GS. At the same time, warm and saline Atlantic Water (AW) anomalies are recirculated from the FS region to the south-western GS by a stronger GSG circulation. Under weakly stratified conditions, enhanced vertical mixing of these subsurface AW anomalies can warm the surface waters and inhibit new sea ice formation, further reducing the SIC in the south-western GS.publishedVersio

Meteorological conditions and cloud effects on surface radiation balance near Helheim glacier and Jakobshavn isbræ (Greenland)using ground-based observations.

The surface radiation budget is an essential component of the total energy exchange between the atmosphere and the Earth’s surface. Measurements of radiative fluxes near/on ice surfaces are sparse in the polar regions, including on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), and the effects of cloud on radiative fluxes are still poorly studied. In this work, we assess the impacts of cloud on radiative fluxes using two metrics: the longwave-equivalent cloudiness, derived from long-wave radiation measurements, and the cloud transmittance factor, obtained from short-wave radiation data. The metrics are applied to radiation data from two automatic weather stations located over the bare ground near the ice front of Helheim (HG, 66.3290°N, 38.1460°W) and Jakobshavn Isbræ(JI, 69.2220°N, 49.8150°W) on the GrIS. Comparisons of meteorological parameters, surface radiation fluxes, and cloud metrics show significant differences between the two sites. The cloud transmittance factor is higher at HG than at JI, and the incoming short-wave radiation in the summer at HG is about 50.0 W m−2 larger than at JI. Cloud metrics derived at the two sites reveal partly cloudy conditions were frequent (42 and 65% of the period at HG and JI) with a high dependency on the wind direction. The total cloud radiative effect (CREnet) generally increases during melt season at the two stations due to long-wave CRE enhancement by cloud fraction. CREnet decreases from May to June and increases afterward, due to the strengthened short-wave CRE. The annually averaged CREnet were 3.0 ± 7.4 W m−2 and 1.9±15.1 W m−2 at JI and HG. CREnet estimated from AWS indicates that clouds cool the JI and HG during melt season at different rates

High-resolution ice sheet surface mass-balance and spatiotemporal runoff simulations: Kangerlussaq, West Greenland

The spatiotemporal distribution of freshwater runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) determines the hydrographic and circulation conditions in Greenlandic fjords. The distribution of GrIS first-order atmospheric forcings, surface mass-balance (SMB), including snow/ice melt, and freshwater river discharge from the Kangerlussuaq drainage catchment were simulated for the thirty-five-year period 1979/1980–2013/2014. ERA-Interim (ERA-I) products, together with the modeling software package SnowModel, were used with relatively high-resolutions of 3-h time steps and 5-km horizontal grid increments. SnowModel simulated and downscaled grid mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and SMB correspond well to point observations along a weather station transect (the K-transect). On average, simulated catchment runoff was, however, overestimated and subsequently adjusted against observed runoff. This overestimation could likely be because of missing multiyear firn processes, such as nonlinear meltwater retention, percolation blocked by ice layers, and refreezing. In the GrIS Kangerlussuaq catchment, the simulated thirty-five-year MAAT was −15.0 ± 1.4°C, with a mean 0° isotherm below 280 m a.s.l. near the ice sheet margin. At the ice sheet margin, on average, 45 percent of precipitation fell as snow. At 2,000 m a.s.l., snow constituted 98 percent of the total precipitation. At the catchment outlet of Watson River draining into the fjord Kangerlussuaq, 80 percent of the simulated runoff originated from GrIS ice melt, 15 percent from snowmelt, and 5 percent from rain

High-resolution ice sheet surface mass-balance and spatiotemporal runoff simulations: Kangerlussaq, West Greenland

The spatiotemporal distribution of freshwater runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) determines the hydrographic and circulation conditions in Greenlandic fjords. The distribution of GrIS first-order atmospheric forcings, surface mass-balance (SMB), including snow/ice melt, and freshwater river discharge from the Kangerlussuaq drainage catchment were simulated for the thirty-five-year period 1979/1980–2013/2014. ERA-Interim (ERA-I) products, together with the modeling software package SnowModel, were used with relatively high-resolutions of 3-h time steps and 5-km horizontal grid increments. SnowModel simulated and downscaled grid mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and SMB correspond well to point observations along a weather station transect (the K-transect). On average, simulated catchment runoff was, however, overestimated and subsequently adjusted against observed runoff. This overestimation could likely be because of missing multiyear firn processes, such as nonlinear meltwater retention, percolation blocked by ice layers, and refreezing. In the GrIS Kangerlussuaq catchment, the simulated thirty-five-year MAAT was −15.0 ± 1.4°C, with a mean 0° isotherm below 280 m a.s.l. near the ice sheet margin. At the ice sheet margin, on average, 45 percent of precipitation fell as snow. At 2,000 m a.s.l., snow constituted 98 percent of the total precipitation. At the catchment outlet of Watson River draining into the fjord Kangerlussuaq, 80 percent of the simulated runoff originated from GrIS ice melt, 15 percent from snowmelt, and 5 percent from rain.publishedVersio

Observed sediment and solute transport from the Kangerlussuaq sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet (2006–2016)

New measurements of Watson River sediment and solute concentrations and an extended river discharge record improved by acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) measurements are used to calculate the total sediment and solute transport from a large ice-sheet sector in southern west Greenland. For the 2006–2016 period, the mean annual sediment and solute transport was 17.5 ± 7.2 × 106 t and 85 ± 30 × 103 t, respectively (standard deviation given). The highest annual transport occurred in 2010, attaining values of 29.6 × 106 t and 138 × 103 t, respectively. The corresponding annual average values of specific transport are 1.39 × 103 t km−2 a−1 for sediment and 6.7 t km−2 a−1 for solutes from the approximately 12,600 km2 (95% ice covered) catchment, yielding an area-average erosion rate of 0.5 mm a−1. The specific transport is likely several times higher under the ice sheet near the margin where all meltwater passes than it is in the interior where the ice sheet is frozen to the bed. We conclude that the Greenland Ice Sheet is a large supplier of sediment and solutes to the surrounding fjords and seas. We find that the proglacial area can be a net source of sediments during high floods and we confirm that an increased amount of meltwater-transported sediments can explain the expansion of deltas around Greenland, contradictory to delta erosion observed elsewhere in the Arctic in recent years.publishedVersio

Combined influence of oceanic and atmospheric circulations on Greenland sea ice concentration

The amount and spatial extent of Greenland Sea (GS) ice are primarily controlled by the sea ice export across the Fram Strait (FS) and by local seasonal sea ice formation, melting, and sea ice dynamics. In this study, using satellite passive microwave sea ice observations, atmospheric and a coupled ocean-sea ice reanalysis system, TOPAZ4, we show that both the atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the Nordic Seas (NS) act in tandem to explain the SIC variability in the south-western GS. Northerly wind anomalies associated with anomalously low sea level pressure (SLP) over the NS reduce the sea ice export in the south-western GS due to westward Ekman drift of sea ice. On the other hand, the positive wind stress curl strengthens the cyclonic Greenland Sea Gyre (GSG) circulation in the central GS. An intensified GSG circulation may result in stronger Ekman divergence of surface cold and fresh waters away from the south-western GS. Both of these processes can reduce the freshwater content and weaken the upper-ocean stratification in the south-western GS. At the same time, warm and saline Atlantic Water (AW) anomalies are recirculated from the FS region to the south-western GS by a stronger GSG circulation. Under weakly stratified conditions, enhanced vertical mixing of these subsurface AW anomalies can warm the surface waters and inhibit new sea ice formation, further reducing the SIC in the south-western GS

Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971 to 2017.

The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP 2017) report identifies the Arctic as the largest regional source of land ice to global sea-level rise in the 2003–2014 period. Yet, this contextualization ignores the longer perspective from in situ records of glacier mass balance. Here, using 17 (>55 °N latitude) glacier and ice cap mass balance series in the 1971–2017 period, we develop a semi-empirical estimate of annual sea-level contribution from seven Arctic regions by scaling the in situ records to GRACE averages. We contend that our estimate represents the most accurate Arctic land ice mass balance assessment so far available before the 1992 start of satellite altimetry. We estimate the 1971–2017 eustatic sea-level contribution from land ice north of ~55 °N to be 23.0 ± 12.3 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE). In all regions, the cumulative sea-level rise curves exhibit an acceleration, starting especially after 1988. Greenland is the source of 46% of the Arctic sea-level rise contribution (10.6 ± 7.3 mm), followed by Alaska (5.7 ± 2.2 mm), Arctic Canada (3.2 ± 0.7 mm) and the Russian High Arctic (1.5 ± 0.4 mm). Our annual results exhibit co-variability over a 43 year overlap (1971–2013) with the alternative dataset of Marzeion et al (2015 Cryosphere 9 2399–404) (M15). However, we find a 1.36× lower sea-level contribution, in agreement with satellite gravimetry. The IPCC Fifth Assessment report identified constraining the pre-satellite era sea-level budget as a topic of low scientific understanding that we address and specify sea-level contributions coinciding with IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) 'present day' (2005–2015) and 'recent past' (1986–2005) reference periods. We assess an Arctic land ice loss of 8.3 mm SLE during the recent past and 12.4 mm SLE during the present day. The seven regional sea-level rise contribution time series of this study are available from AMAP.no

Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change

We provide an updated analysis of instrumental Greenland monthly temperature data to 2019, focusing mainly on coastal stations but also analysing ice‐sheet records from Swiss Camp and Summit. Significant summer (winter) coastal warming of ~1.7 (4.4)°C occurred from 1991–2019, but since 2001 overall temperature trends are generally flat and insignificant due to a cooling pattern over the last 6–7 years. Inland and coastal stations show broadly similar temperature trends for summer. Greenland temperature changes are more strongly correlated with Greenland Blocking than with North Atlantic Oscillation changes. In quantifying the association between Greenland coastal temperatures and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass‐balance changes, we show a stronger link of temperatures with total mass balance rather than surface mass balance. Based on Greenland coastal temperatures and modelled mass balance for the 1972–2018 period, each 1°C of summer warming corresponds to ~(91) 116 Gt·yr−1 of GrIS (surface) mass loss and a 26 Gt·yr−1 increase in solid ice discharge. Given an estimated 4.0–6.6°C of further Greenland summer warming according to the regional model MAR projections run under CMIP6 future climate projections (SSP5‐8.5 scenario), and assuming that ice‐dynamical losses and ice sheet topography stay similar to the recent past, linear extrapolation gives a corresponding GrIS global sea‐level rise (SLR) contribution of ~10.0–12.6 cm by 2100, compared with the 8–27 cm (mean 15 cm) “likely” model projection range reported by IPCC in 2019 (SPM.B1.2). However, our estimate represents a lower limit for future GrIS change since fixed dynamical mass losses and amplified melt arising from both melt‐albedo and melt‐elevation positive feedbacks are not taken into account here

Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017

Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, evident from increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue in sea ice thickness (and extent) and spring snow cover extent and duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several of the climate indicators exhibit a significant statistical correlation with air temperature or precipitation, reinforcing the notion that increasing air temperatures and precipitation are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system. To progress beyond a presentation of the Arctic physical climate changes, we find a correspondence between air temperature and biophysical indicators such as tundra biomass and identify numerous biophysical disruptions with cascading effects throughout the trophic levels. These include: increased delivery of organic matter and nutrients to Arctic near‐coastal zones; condensed flowering and pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch between plant flowering and pollinators; increased plant vulnerability to insect disturbance; increased shrub biomass; increased ignition of wildfires; increased growing season CO2 uptake, with counterbalancing increases in shoulder season and winter CO2 emissions; increased carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology and permafrost thaw; conversion between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and shifting animal distribution and demographics. The Arctic biophysical system is now clearly trending away from its 20th Century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic. The indicator time series of this study are freely downloadable at AMAP.no