Complexity analysis of surface electromyography for assessing the myoelectric manifestation of muscle fatigue: A review

The surface electromyography (sEMG) records the electrical activity of muscle fibers during contraction: one of its uses is to assess changes taking place within muscles in the course of a fatiguing contraction to provide insights into our understanding of muscle fatigue in training protocols and rehabilitation medicine. Until recently, these myoelectric manifestations of muscle fatigue (MMF) have been assessed essentially by linear sEMG analyses. However, sEMG shows a complex behavior, due to many concurrent factors. Therefore, in the last years, complexity-based methods have been tentatively applied to the sEMG signal to better individuate the MMF onset during sustained contractions. In this review, after describing concisely the traditional linear methods employed to assess MMF we present the complexity methods used for sEMG analysis based on an extensive literature search. We show that some of these indices, like those derived from recurrence plots, from entropy or fractal analysis, can detect MMF efficiently. However, we also show that more work remains to be done to compare the complexity indices in terms of reliability and sensibility; to optimize the choice of embedding dimension, time delay and threshold distance in reconstructing the phase space; and to elucidate the relationship between complexity estimators and the physiologic phenomena underlying the onset of MMF in exercising muscles

Predictors to Achieve Normal Nutrition Status: Longitudinal Study Among HIV Children on Antiretroviral Treatment in Bali

Background and purpose: Malnutrition is common in children with HIV/AIDS. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) improves the nutritional status; however, information about predictors affecting the changes of nutritional status is limited and inconsistent.Methods: The retrospective survival study analyzed secondary data of 84 undernourished children receiving ART in Sanglah Central Hospital in 2010 to 2015. Demographic, clinical and socio-economic characteristics at ART initiation were linked to the achievement of normal nutritional status (z-score ? -2 SD). Kaplan Meier analysis was used to obtain the incidence rate and median time and cox proportional hazards models to identify its predictors.Results: Of the 73.81% of children achieved a normal nutrition status with the incidence of children achieving normal nutritional was 19 per 100 child months, and a median time of 4 months 10 days. Children with birth weight ?2500 gr (AHR=5.41; 95%CI: 1.76-16.61), without candidiasis (AHR=3.72; 95%CI: 1.27-10.93), Clinical WHO Stage III (AHR=1.6; (95%CI: 1.08-4.24), Clinical WHO Stage II (AHR=4.49; 95%CI: 1.95-10.79) and early ART intiation (AHR=0.91; 95%CI: 0.83-0.98) were predictors to achieve normal nutritional status.Conclusion: Clinical characteristics of children are predictors of achieving a normal nutritional status

Predictors of Loss to Follow Up and Mortality Among Children ?12 Years Receiving Anti Retroviral Therapy During the First Year at a Referral Hospital in Bali

Background and purpose: Many HIV-infected children in Bali have started antiretroviral therapy (ART), but loss to follow up (LTFU) is a continuing concern, and the issue of childhood adherence is more complex compared to adults.Methods: This was a retrospective study among cohort of 138 HIV+ children on ART in Sanglah General Hospital, Denpasar, Bali from January 2010 to December 2015. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to describe incidence and median time to LTFU/mortality and Cox Proportional Hazard Model was used to identify predictors. Variables which were analysed were socio-demographic characteristics, birth history, care giver and clinical condition of the children.Results: Mean age when starting ARV therapy was 3.21 years. About 25% experienced LTFU/death by 9.1 month resulting in an incidence rate of 3.28 per 100 child month. The higher the WHO stage, the higher the risk for LTFU/mortality along with low body weight (AHR=0.90; 95%CI: 0.82-0.99).Conclusion: Clinical characteristics were found as predictors for LTFU/mortality among children on ART

From the oceans to the cloud: Opportunities and challenges for data, models, computation and workflows.

© The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Vance, T. C., Wengren, M., Burger, E., Hernandez, D., Kearns, T., Medina-Lopez, E., Merati, N., O'Brien, K., O'Neil, J., Potemrag, J. T., Signell, R. P., & Wilcox, K. From the oceans to the cloud: Opportunities and challenges for data, models, computation and workflows. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6(211), (2019), doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00211.Advances in ocean observations and models mean increasing flows of data. Integrating observations between disciplines over spatial scales from regional to global presents challenges. Running ocean models and managing the results is computationally demanding. The rise of cloud computing presents an opportunity to rethink traditional approaches. This includes developing shared data processing workflows utilizing common, adaptable software to handle data ingest and storage, and an associated framework to manage and execute downstream modeling. Working in the cloud presents challenges: migration of legacy technologies and processes, cloud-to-cloud interoperability, and the translation of legislative and bureaucratic requirements for “on-premises” systems to the cloud. To respond to the scientific and societal needs of a fit-for-purpose ocean observing system, and to maximize the benefits of more integrated observing, research on utilizing cloud infrastructures for sharing data and models is underway. Cloud platforms and the services/APIs they provide offer new ways for scientists to observe and predict the ocean’s state. High-performance mass storage of observational data, coupled with on-demand computing to run model simulations in close proximity to the data, tools to manage workflows, and a framework to share and collaborate, enables a more flexible and adaptable observation and prediction computing architecture. Model outputs are stored in the cloud and researchers either download subsets for their interest/area or feed them into their own simulations without leaving the cloud. Expanded storage and computing capabilities make it easier to create, analyze, and distribute products derived from long-term datasets. In this paper, we provide an introduction to cloud computing, describe current uses of the cloud for management and analysis of observational data and model results, and describe workflows for running models and streaming observational data. We discuss topics that must be considered when moving to the cloud: costs, security, and organizational limitations on cloud use. Future uses of the cloud via computational sandboxes and the practicalities and considerations of using the cloud to archive data are explored. We also consider the ways in which the human elements of ocean observations are changing – the rise of a generation of researchers whose observations are likely to be made remotely rather than hands on – and how their expectations and needs drive research towards the cloud. In conclusion, visions of a future where cloud computing is ubiquitous are discussed.This is PMEL contribution 4873

Comparative Treatment Outcomes for Patients With Idiopathic Subglottic Stenosis.

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked DownloadImportance: Surgical treatment comparisons in rare diseases are difficult secondary to the geographic distribution of patients. Fortunately, emerging technologies offer promise to reduce these barriers for research. Objective: To prospectively compare the outcomes of the 3 most common surgical approaches for idiopathic subglottic stenosis (iSGS), a rare airway disease. Design, setting, and participants: In this international, prospective, 3-year multicenter cohort study, 810 patients with untreated, newly diagnosed, or previously treated iSGS were enrolled after undergoing a surgical procedure (endoscopic dilation [ED], endoscopic resection with adjuvant medical therapy [ERMT], or cricotracheal resection [CTR]). Patients were recruited from clinician practices in the North American Airway Collaborative and an online iSGS community on Facebook. Main outcomes and measures: The primary end point was days from initial surgical procedure to recurrent surgical procedure. Secondary end points included quality of life using the Clinical COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) Questionnaire (CCQ), Voice Handicap Index-10 (VHI-10), Eating Assessment Test-10 (EAT-10), the 12-Item Short-Form Version 2 (SF-12v2), and postoperative complications. Results: Of 810 patients in this cohort, 798 (98.5%) were female and 787 (97.2%) were white, with a median age of 50 years (interquartile range, 43-58 years). Index surgical procedures were ED (n = 603; 74.4%), ERMT (n = 121; 14.9%), and CTR (n = 86; 10.6%). Overall, 185 patients (22.8%) had a recurrent surgical procedure during the 3-year study, but recurrence differed by modality (CTR, 1 patient [1.2%]; ERMT, 15 [12.4%]; and ED, 169 [28.0%]). Weighted, propensity score-matched, Cox proportional hazards regression models showed ED was inferior to ERMT (hazard ratio [HR], 3.16; 95% CI, 1.8-5.5). Among successfully treated patients without recurrence, those treated with CTR had the best CCQ (0.75 points) and SF-12v2 (54 points) scores and worst VHI-10 score (13 points) 360 days after enrollment as well as the greatest perioperative risk. Conclusions and relevance: In this cohort study of 810 patients with iSGS, endoscopic dilation, the most popular surgical approach for iSGS, was associated with a higher recurrence rate compared with other procedures. Cricotracheal resection offered the most durable results but showed the greatest perioperative risk and the worst long-term voice outcomes. Endoscopic resection with medical therapy was associated with better disease control compared with ED and had minimal association with vocal function. These results may be used to inform individual patient treatment decision-making.Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute - PCOR

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world