Climate-Vegetation-Feedbacks as a Mechanism for Accelerated Climate Change: The onset of the African Humid Period

Paleo-environmental records and models indicate that the African Humid Period (AHPabruptly ended about 5000-4000 years before present (BP). Some proxies indicate alsan abrupt onset of the AHP between 14,000 and 11,000 BP. How important are local orbitaforcing, ice-sheet forcing, greenhouse gas forcing, and the reorganization of the AtlantiMeridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for changes in the African Monsoon/vegetatiosystem? Here we use transient simulations with climate-vegetation models of differencomplexity to identify the factors that control the onset of the African Monsoon/VegetationWe test the following hypothesis:(1) There is no indication for insolation-thresholds for the onset/break of the AHP.(2) Forcing from CO2/ice-sheets significantly controls the climate of North Africa.(3) CO2 fertilization contributes to the vegetation changes over North Africa.(4) A shutdown of the AMOC is as important as orbital insolation for the African Monsoon

An ice–climate oscillatory framework for Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles

Intermediate glacial states were characterized by large temperature changes in Greenland and the North Atlantic, referred to as Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) variability, with some transitions occurring over a few decades. D–O variability included changes in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), temperature changes of opposite sign and asynchronous timing in each hemisphere, shifts in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and variations in atmospheric CO2. Palaeorecords and numerical studies indicate that the AMOC, with a tight coupling to Nordic Seas sea ice, is central to D–O variability, yet, a complete theory remains elusive. In this Review, we synthesize the climatic expression and processes proposed to explain D–O cyclicity. What emerges is an oscillatory framework of the AMOC–sea-ice system, arising through feedbacks involving the atmosphere, cryosphere and the Earth’s biogeochemical system. Palaeoclimate observations indicate that the AMOC might be more sensitive to perturbations than climate models currently suggest. Tighter constraints on AMOC stability are, thus, needed to project AMOC changes over the coming century as a response to anthropogenic carbon emissions. Progress can be achieved by additional observational constraints and numerical simulations performed with coupled climate–ice-sheet models

Fingerprints of changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to large reorganizations in ocean circulation

CO<sub>2</sub> and carbon cycle changes in the land, ocean and atmosphere are investigated using the comprehensive carbon cycle-climate model NCAR CSM1.4-carbon. Ensemble simulations are forced with freshwater perturbations applied at the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean deep water formation sites under pre-industrial climate conditions. As a result, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation reduces in each experiment to varying degrees. The physical climate fields show changes qualitatively in agreement with results documented in the literature, but there is a clear distinction between northern and southern perturbations. Changes in the physical variables, in turn, affect the land and ocean biogeochemical cycles and cause a reduction, or an increase, in the atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration by up to 20 ppmv, depending on the location of the perturbation. In the case of a North Atlantic perturbation, the land biosphere reacts with a strong reduction in carbon stocks in some tropical locations and in high northern latitudes. In contrast, land carbon stocks tend to increase in response to a southern perturbation. The ocean is generally a sink of carbon although large reorganizations occur throughout various basins. The response of the land biosphere is strongest in the tropical regions due to a shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The carbon fingerprints of this shift, either to the south or to the north depending on where the freshwater is applied, can be found most clearly in South America. For this reason, a compilation of various paleoclimate proxy records of Younger Dryas precipitation changes are compared with our model results. The proxy records, in general, show good agreement with the model's response to a North Atlantic freshwater perturbation

Greenland ice mass loss during the Younger Dryas driven by Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation feedbacks.

Understanding feedbacks between the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is crucial for reducing uncertainties over future sea level and ocean circulation change. Reconstructing past GrIS dynamics can extend the observational record and elucidate mechanisms that operate on multi-decadal timescales. We report a highly-constrained last glacial vertical profile of cosmogenic isotope exposure ages from Sermilik Fjord, a marine-terminating ice stream in the southeast sector of the GrIS. Our reconstruction reveals substantial ice-mass loss throughout the Younger Dryas (12.9-11.7 ka), a period of marked atmospheric and sea-surface cooling. Earth-system modelling reveals that southern GrIS marginal melt was likely driven by strengthening of the Irminger Current at depth due to a weakening of the AMOC during the Younger Dryas. This change in North Atlantic circulation appears to have drawn warm subsurface waters to southeast Greenland despite markedly cooler sea surface temperatures, enhancing thermal erosion at the grounding lines of palaeo ice-streams, supporting interpretation of regional marine-sediment cores. Given current rates of GrIS meltwater input into the North Atlantic and the vulnerability of major ice streams to water temperature changes at the grounding line, this mechanism has important implications for future AMOC changes and northern hemisphere heat transport

Iron sources and pathways into the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent

Using a novel observationally constrained Lagrangian iron model forced by outputs from an eddy-resolving biogeochemical ocean model, we examine the sensitivity of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) iron distribution to EUC source region iron concentrations. We find that elevated iron concentrations derived from New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent (NGCU) alone is insufficient to explain the high concentrations observed in the EUC. In addition, due to the spread in transit times, interannual NGCU iron pulses are scavenged, diluted, or eroded, before reaching the eastern equatorial Pacific. With an additional iron source from the nearby New Ireland Coastal Undercurrent, EUC iron concentrations become consistent with observations. Furthermore, as both the New Guinea and New Ireland Coastal Undercurrents strengthen during El Niño, increased iron input into the EUC can enhance the iron supply into the eastern equatorial Pacific. Notably, during the 1997/1998 El Niño, this causes a simulated 30% iron increase at a 13 month lag

The atmospheric bridge communicated the δ13C decline during the last deglaciation to the global upper ocean

During the early part of the last glacial termination (17.2-15 ka) and coincident with a ∼ 35 ppm rise in atmospheric CO2, a sharp 0.3‰-0.4‰ decline in atmospheric δ13CO2 occurred, potentially constraining the key processes that account for the early deglacial CO2 rise. A comparable δ13C decline has also been documented in numerous marine proxy records from surface and thermocline-dwelling planktic foraminifera. The δ13C decline recorded in planktic foraminifera has previously been attributed to the release of respired carbon from the deep ocean that was subsequently transported within the upper ocean to sites where the signal was recorded (and then ultimately transferred to the atmosphere). Benthic δ13C records from the global upper ocean, including a new record presented here from the tropical Pacific, also document this distinct early deglacial δ13C decline. Here we present modeling evidence to show that rather than respired carbon from the deep ocean propagating directly to the upper ocean prior to reaching the atmosphere, the carbon would have first upwelled to the surface in the Southern Ocean where it would have entered the atmosphere. In this way the transmission of isotopically light carbon to the global upper ocean was analogous to the ongoing ocean invasion of fossil fuel CO2. The model results suggest that thermocline waters throughout the ocean and 500-2000m water depths were affected by this atmospheric bridge during the early deglaciation

An ice–climate oscillatory framework for Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles

Intermediate glacial states were characterized by large temperature changes in Greenland and the North Atlantic, referred to as Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) variability, with some transitions occurring over a few decades. D–O variability included changes in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), temperature changes of opposite sign and asynchronous timing in each hemisphere, shifts in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and variations in atmospheric CO2. Palaeorecords and numerical studies indicate that the AMOC, with a tight coupling to Nordic Seas sea ice, is central to D–O variability, yet, a complete theory remains elusive. In this Review, we synthesize the climatic expression and processes proposed to explain D–O cyclicity. What emerges is an oscillatory framework of the AMOC–sea-ice system, arising through feedbacks involving the atmosphere, cryosphere and the Earth’s biogeochemical system. Palaeoclimate observations indicate that the AMOC might be more sensitive to perturbations than climate models currently suggest. Tighter constraints on AMOC stability are, thus, needed to project AMOC changes over the coming century as a response to anthropogenic carbon emissions. Progress can be achieved by additional observational constraints and numerical simulations performed with coupled climate–ice-sheet models

An Atlantic-Pacific ventilation seesaw across the last deglaciation

It has been proposed that the rapid rise of atmospheric CO2across the last deglaciation was driven by the release of carbon from an extremely radiocarbon-depleted abyssal ocean reservoir that was ‘vented’ to the atmosphere primarily via the deep-and intermediate overturning loops in the Southern Ocean. While some radiocarbon observations from the intermediate ocean appear to confirm this hypothesis, others appear to refute it. Here we use radiocarbon measurements in paired benthic-and planktonic foraminifera to reconstruct the benthic–planktonic14C age offset (i.e. ‘ventilation age’) of intermediate waters in the western equatorial Atlantic. Our results show clear increases in local radiocarbon-based ventilation ages during Heinrich-Stadial 1 (HS1) and the Younger Dryas (YD). These are found to coincide with opposite changes of similar magnitude observed in the Pacific, demonstrating a ‘seesaw’ in the ventilation of the intermediate Atlantic and Pacific Oceans that numerical model simulations of North Atlantic overturning collapse indicate was primarily driven by North Pacific overturning. We propose that this Atlantic–Pacific ventilation seesaw would have combined with a previously identified North Atlantic–Southern Ocean ventilation seesaw to enhance ocean–atmosphere CO2exchange during a ‘collapse’ of the North Atlantic deep overturning limb. Whereas previous work has emphasized a more passive role for intermediate waters in deglacial climate change (merely conveying changes originating in the Southern Ocean) we suggest instead that the intermediate water seesaw played a more active role via relatively subtle but globally coordinated changes in ocean dynamics that may have further influenced ocean–atmosphere carbon exchange.We are grateful to Adam Scrivner for technical assistance in the laboratory, as well as the Royal Society and NERC grant NE/L006421/1 for research support. The UVic ESCM numerical ex-periments were performed on a computational cluster from the NCI National Facility systems at the Australian National University through the National Computational Merit Allocation Scheme sup-ported by the Australian Government. A.T. and T.F. acknowledge support from the US NSF grants 1341311, 1400914. L.M. is sup-ported by the Australian Research Council grant DE150100107.This is the final version. It was first published by Elsevier at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X15003301

Past rapid warmings as a constraint on greenhouse-gas climate feedbacks

There are large uncertainties in the estimation of greenhouse-gas climate feedback. Recent observations do not provide strong constraints because they are short and complicated by human interventions, while model-based estimates differ considerably. Rapid climate changes during the last glacial period (Dansgaard-Oeschger events), observed near-globally, were comparable in both rate and magnitude to current and projected 21st century climate warming and therefore provide a relevant constraint on feedback strength. Here we use these events to quantify the centennial-scale feedback strength of CO2, CH4 and N2O by relating global mean temperature changes, simulated by an appropriately forced low-resolution climate model, to the radiative forcing of these greenhouse gases derived from their concentration changes in ice-core records. We derive feedback estimates (expressed as dimensionless gain) of 0.14 ± 0.04 for CO2, 0.10 ± 0.02 for CH4, and 0.09 ± 0.03 for N2O. This indicates that much lower or higher estimates of gains, particularly some previously published values for CO2, are unrealistic

An Atlantic–Pacific ventilation seesaw across the last deglaciation

It has been proposed that the rapid rise of atmospheric CO2 across the last deglaciation was driven by the release of carbon from an extremely radiocarbon-depleted abyssal ocean reservoir that was ‘vented’ to the atmosphere primarily via the deep- and intermediate overturning loops in the Southern Ocean. While some radiocarbon observations from the intermediate ocean appear to confirm this hypothesis, others appear to refute it. Here we use radiocarbon measurements in paired benthic- and planktonic foraminifera to reconstruct the benthic–planktonic 14C age offset (i.e. ‘ventilation age’) of intermediate waters in the western equatorial Atlantic. Our results show clear increases in local radiocarbon-based ventilation ages during Heinrich-Stadial 1 (HS1) and the Younger Dryas (YD). These are found to coincide with opposite changes of similar magnitude observed in the Pacific, demonstrating a ‘seesaw’ in the ventilation of the intermediate Atlantic and Pacific Oceans that numerical model simulations of North Atlantic overturning collapse indicate was primarily driven by North Pacific overturning. We propose that this Atlantic–Pacific ventilation seesaw would have combined with a previously identified North Atlantic–Southern Ocean ventilation seesaw to enhance ocean–atmosphere CO2 exchange during a ‘collapse’ of the North Atlantic deep overturning limb. Whereas previous work has emphasized a more passive role for intermediate waters in deglacial climate change (merely conveying changes originating in the Southern Ocean) we suggest instead that the intermediate water seesaw played a more active role via relatively subtle but globally coordinated changes in ocean dynamics that may have further influenced ocean–atmosphere carbon exchange