A search-theoretic monetary business cycle model with capital formation

Search-theory has become the main paradigm for the micro-foundation of money. But no comprehensive business cycle analysis has been undertaken yet with a search-based monetary model. We extend the model with divisible goods and divisible money of Shi (JET, 1998) to allow for capital formation, analyze the monetary propagation mechanism and contrast the model's implications with US business cycle stylized facts. With empirically plausible adjustment costs the model features a persistent propagation of monetary shocks and is able to replicate fairly well the volatility and cross-correlation with output of key US time series, including sales and inventory investment. We find that monetary policy shocks are unlikely to be an important source of business cycle fluctuations but discover another dimension where money matters: the very frictions that make money essential shape also the responses of variables to real shocks

Highly permeable macroporous polymers synthesized from pickering medium and high internal phase emulsion templates

Open porous poly-Plckerlng-M/HIPEs with permeabilities of up to 2.6 D were prepared by polymerisation of PickeringM/HIPEs to which small amounts of surfactant were added. The permeability of these poly-Pickering-M/HIPEs is more than 5 times that of conventional polyHI PEs. This approach allows the synthesis of a novel class of permeable particle reinforced macroporous polymers with significant potential for practical exploitation. (Figure Presented) © 2010 WILEY-VCH VerlagGmbH S.Co. KCaA, Weinheim

The role of search frictions for output and inflation dynamics: a Bayesian assessment

Search frictions in the goods market have proven to be a fruitful deviation from the fiction of a centralized Walrasian market providing a micro-foundation of the use of money as a medium of exchange. Moreover, persistent propagation of monetary shocks can arise in search-theoretic monetary models through the interaction of search-frictions in the goods and labor markets, and inventory holdings. Here, a search-theoretic monetary DSGE model with capital and inventory investment is estimated, and its implications on output and inflation dynamics are contrasted with those of standard flexible price monetary models: a cash-in-advance and a portfolio adjustment cost model. Model estimation and comparison is conducted in a Bayesian way in order to account for possible model misspecification. The search model can track inflation and output data better, as well as it dominates the other models in the ability to predict the autocorrelations of inflation and the persistent disinflation process after a technology shock. It generates a hump-shaped but not strong enough output response to a monetary shock. Current and near current correlations between output growth inflation are predicted well.

The role of search frictions for output and inflation dynamics: a Bayesian assessment

Search frictions in the goods market have proven to be a fruitful deviation from the fiction of a centralized Walrasian market providing a micro-foundation of the use of money as a medium of exchange. Moreover, persistent propagation of monetary shocks can arise in search-theoretic monetary models through the interaction of search-frictions in the goods and labor markets, and inventory holdings. Here, a search-theoretic monetary DSGE model with capital and inventory investment is estimated, and its implications on output and inflation dynamics are contrasted with those of standard flexible price monetary models: a cash-in-advance and a portfolio adjustment cost model. Model estimation and comparison is conducted in a Bayesian way in order to account for possible model misspecification. The search model can track inflation and output data better, as well as it dominates the other models in the ability to predict the autocorrelations of inflation and the persistent disinflation process after a technology shock. It generates a hump-shaped but not strong enough output response to a monetary shock. Current and near current correlations between output growth inflation are predicted well

MONETARY PROPAGATION IN SEARCH-THEORETIC MONETARY MODELS

Shouyong Shi(1998) presents a general equilibrium model which shows a persistent monetary propagation mechanism. There the high persistence is obtained by a combination of search frictions in the goods and labor markets and the presence of final goods inventories. The present paper addresses the question of robustness of these results, especially, how sensitive are Shi's results to parameter changes and to different model specifications. Calibration of the parameters to intervals is used to perform a global sensitivity analysis. The calibration exercise reveals that the model is quite robust to changes in parameters. Comparing different model versions - including a CIA model which appears as a special case when buyers and sellers match always - we can disentangle and quantify the contributions of the various frictions in accounting for the persistent propagation. Search-frictions in the goods market and inventory holdings are necessary for persistent propagation of monetary shocks. Labor market frictions are not crucial but prolong the output responses and reduce their magnitude.

A search-theoretic monetary business cycle model with capital formation.

Search-theory has become the main paradigm for the micro-foundation of money. But no comprehensive business cycle analysis has been undertaken yet with a search-based monetary model. We extend the model with divisible goods and divisible money of Shi (JET, 1998) to allow for capital formation, analyze the monetary propagation mechanism and contrast the model's implications with US business cycle stylized facts. With empirically plausible adjustment costs the model features a persistent propagation of monetary shocks and is able to replicate fairly well the volatility and cross-correlation with output of key US time series, including sales and inventory investment. We find that monetary policy shocks are unlikely to be an important source of business cycle fluctuations but discover another dimension where money matters: the very frictions that make money essential shape also the responses of variables to real shocks.

The role for search frictions for output and inflation dynamics: A Bayesian assessment

A search-theoretic monetary DSGE model with capital and in¬ventory investment is estimated, and its implications on output and inflation dynamics are contrasted with those of standard flexible price monetary models: a cash-in-advance and a portfolio adjustment cost model. Model estimation and comparison is conducted in a Bayesian way in order to account for possible model misspecification. The search model can track inflation and output data better. It dominates the other models in the ability to predict the autocorrela¬tions of inflation, the contemporaneous correlation between output growth and inflation, and in the persistent (dis-)inflation process after a (technol¬ogy) monetary shock. It generates a hump-shaped but delayed output response to a monetary shock that matches the data better than the other models.Inflation and Output Dynamics, Business Cycle, Search-Theory of Money, Bayesian Estimation, Model Comparison.

Maximum Likelihood Methods for Inverse Learning of Optimal Controllers

This paper presents a framework for inverse learning of objective functions for constrained optimal control problems, which is based on the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions. We discuss three variants corresponding to different model assumptions and computational complexities. The first method uses a convex relaxation of the KKT conditions and serves as the benchmark. The main contribution of this paper is the proposition of two learning methods that combine the KKT conditions with maximum likelihood estimation. The key benefit of this combination is the systematic treatment of constraints for learning from noisy data with a branch-and-bound algorithm using likelihood arguments. This paper discusses theoretic properties of the learning methods and presents simulation results that highlight the advantages of using the maximum likelihood formulation for learning objective functions.Comment: 21st IFAC World Congres

Negative nominal interest rates: History and current proposals

Given the renewed interest in negative interest rates as a means for overcoming the zero bound on nominal interest rates, this article reviews the history of negative nominal interest rates and gives a brief survey over the current proposals that received popular attention in the wake of the financial crisis of 2007/08. It is demonstrated that taxing money proposals have a long intellectual history and that instead of being the conjecture of a monetary crank, they are a serious policy proposal. In a second step the article points out that, besides the more popular debate on a Gesell tax as a means to remove the zero bound on nominal interest rates, there is a class of neoclassical search-models that advocates a negative tax on money as efficiency enhancing. This strand of the literature has so far been largely ignored by the policy debate on negative interest rates. --negative interest rates,history of economic thought,Silvio Gesell,zero bound,search-theoretical models,monetary policy

Monetary propagation in search-theoretic monetary models

Shouyong Shi(1998) presents a general equilibrium model which shows a persistent monetary propagation mechanism. There the high persistence is obtained by a combination of search frictions in the goods and labor markets and the presence of final goods inventories. The present paper addresses the question of robustness of these results, especially, how sensitive are Shi's results to parameter changes and to different model specifications. Calibration of the parameters to intervals is used to perform a global sensitivity analysis. The calibration exercise reveals that the model is quite robust to changes in parameters. Comparing different model versions - including a CIA model which appears as a special case when buyers and sellers match always - we can disentangle and quantify the contributions of the various frictions in accounting for the persistent propagation. Search-frictions in the goods market and inventory holdings are necessary for persistent propagation of monetary shocks. Labor market frictions are not crucial but prolong the output responses and reduce their magnitude