Comparing Simple Quasar Demographics Models

This paper explores several simple model variations for the connections among quasars, galaxies, and dark matter halos for redshifts 1 < z < 6. A key component of these models is that we enforce a self-consistent black hole (BH) history by tracking both BH mass and BH growth rate at all redshifts. We connect objects across redshift with a simple constant-number-density procedure, and choose a fiducial model with a relationship between BH and galaxy growth rates that is linear and evolves in a simple way with redshift. Within this fiducial model, we find the quasar luminosity function (QLF) by calculating an "intrinsic" luminosity based on either the BH mass or BH growth rate, and then choosing a model of quasar variability with either a lognormal or truncated power-law distribution of instantaneous luminosities. This gives four model variations, which we fit to the observed QLF at each redshift. With the best-fit models in hand, we undertake a detailed comparison of the four fiducial models, and explore changes to our fiducial model of the BH-galaxy relationship. Each model variation can successfully fit the observed QLF, the shape of which is generally set by the "intrinsic" luminosity at the faint end and by the scatter due to variability at the bright end. We focus on accounting for the reasons that physically different models can make such similar predictions, and on identifying what observational data or physical arguments are most essential in breaking the degeneracies among models.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, 1 tabl

Economic and Social Models in Europe and the Importance of Reform

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on European economic and social models. It provides a comparative assessment of fiscal and regulatory policies in 17 industrialised countries (the EU15, US and Japan) and presents the records of these countries in attaining key economic and social objectives. Social and economic systems that feature efficient public sectors and flexible market structures tend to experience reasonably sustainable public finances, high economic growth, education standards and employment, and well-functioning markets. Anglo-Saxon countries broadly fit this mould, albeit, seemingly, at some cost of income equality. A more pronounced emphasis on welfare state policies and the corresponding relatively high levels of public spending bring benefit to income distribution in the Nordic countries while the resulting inefficiencies in their economies are counterbalanced by flexibility in labour and particularly product markets. Also, a number of reform-minded European countries have improved their fiscal and regulatory policies while significantly enhancing the functioning of markets, fiscal sustainability and economic performance. This was generally attained without jeopardising social objectives. On the other hand, those continental and Mediterranean countries that maintain market inefficiencies and at the same time sustain expensive and inefficient welfare states generally suffer from low growth and employment and less well-functioning markets and face serious risks to their economies’ fiscal sustainability. The findings of this note support calls for the comprehensive reform of fiscal policies, as well as of product and labour markets.fiscal policy, regulation, Nordic model, welfare state, efficiency, reform

Comparing stress levels and coping styles in college athletes and non-athletes

The way individuals manage their stress levels impacts their everyday functioning. In addition to general life stressors, college athletes and college students have athletic and academic performances riding on their ability to cope with the wide variety of daily stressors. This study aimed to primarily look at the differences in stress levels and coping styles between college athletes and non-athletes. Additionally, the current research examined gender differences between the two groups regarding coping styles. College athletes did not report higher levels of perceived stress nor more positive coping styles than non-athletes as measured by the COPE questionnaire. There were significant gender differences in specific types ofwith regard to coping styles as females reported using more negative coping styles. The results of this study are an important stepping-stone towards more extensive research into the differences and similarities of the stress levels and coping styles of these two groups

WP 92 - An overview of women's work and employment in Azerbaijan

This report provides information on Azerbaijan on behalf of the implementation of the DECISIONS FOR LIFE project in that country. The DECISIONS FOR LIFE project aims to raise awareness amongst young female workers about their employment opportunities and career possibilities, family building and the work-family balance. This report is part of the Inventories, to be made by the University of Amsterdam, for all 14 countries involved. It focuses on a gender analysis of work and employment. _History (2.1.1)_. In the 1880s, the first oil boom took place in Azerbaijan. After brief independence from 1918 to 1920, the country realised independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. This was overshadowed by the Nagorno-Karabakh war with Armenia and an economic crisis that hit women dramatically. The 2000s witnessed spectacular economic growth, led by growing oil exports and high oil prices. _Governance (2.1.2)._ Azerbaijan is a secular and unitary republic with a presidential system. Recently the government’s human rights record remained poor. The Constitution guarantees equality and rights for all citizens, but enforcement of human and women’s rights is weak. With the 2009 elections, women representation in parliament came at 11.4%. Domestic violence and sexual harassment are widespread. _Prospects (2.1.3)._ Though Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) fell drastically in 2008-09, the global economic crisis has had a modest impact on Azerbaijan’s economy. A further decline in jobs in manufacturing sub-sectors like textiles, garment and leather has negatively affected female employment. _Communication (2.2)._ Thoiugh the coverage of fi xed telephone connections has recently grown, this is dwarfed by the expansion of the incidence of cell phones, to over three in four of the population in 2008. By that year, 181 per 1,000 were Internet users. Nearly all households have a TV set. Freedom of press, be it TV, radio or printed press, is a recurrent problem. _The sectoral labour market structure – Population and employment (2.3.1)._ Between 2003 and 2008 a growing ”informalisation” of the economy has taken place, in particular concerning women’s employment. With 66% in 2008, women’s Labour Participation Rate (LPR) was 91% of men’s. _The sectoral labour market structure - Unemployment (2.3.2)_. In the 2000s unemployment fell from 10-13% to 6-7%. The differences between the male and female unemployment rates are marginal. In 2006 unemployment was highest for girls and young women aged 15-24 (17%), followed by their male peers (15.5%). Most likely this picture is structural. _Legislation (2.4.1)._ Azerbaijan has ratifi ed the eight core ILO Labour Conventions. The Constitution provides for the right to strike, but there are exceptions. The State prohibits unions from carrying out political activities. In the informal economy the government did not enforce contracts or labour legislation. _Labour relations and wage-setting (2.4.2)._ Depending on how many members the affi liates of the ATUC, the only union confederation, have, union density may vary between 42 and 91%. The national process of wage-setting seems to be orchestrated top-down, but some reservations should be made, like on bilateral government agreements with multinational enterprises (MNEs), setting aside labour laws. Unions also rarely participate in determining wage levels in the state sector. _The statutory minimum wage (2.5.1)._ Since 2008 the administratively set minimum wage is AZN 75, or 27% of the country’s average monthly wage. Since 2004, the value of the MW has been about this level. In practice the MW is not effectively enforced. Poverty (2.5.2). For 2008, it was officially estimated that less than 13% of the population lived below the national poverty line. This is questioned by various research outcomes, suggesting a more grim picture, though the trend towards less poverty and greater equality cannot be denied. Economic independence is far-away for many women, in particular for many young women. Female-headed households are much more locked in poverty than male-headed households. _Population and fertility (2.6.1)._ Azerbaijan has a rather low and decreasing population growth, currently lower than 0.8% yearly. The 2009 sex ratio at birth is 1.13 male/female. The total fertility rate (slightly above 2.0 children per woman) and the adolescent fertility rate (44 per 1,000) are rather low but the adolescent rate is increasing. Early marriage is uncommon but increasing too. _Health (2.6.2)._ In 2007, the number of people in Azerbaijan living with HIV was estimated at 7,800. Though HIV/AIDS is much more a men’s disease, female risk groups include trafficked women and girls and injecting drug users. Levels of public awareness of HIV/AIDS are very low, as is the case for knowledge on contraceptive prevalence. Health disparities are large, including urban – rural divides. _Women’s labour market share (2.6.3)._ Women make up nearly half of the country’s labour force. In 2008 five of the 15 industries showed a female share above this average. Nearly half of all women employed could be found at the bottom of the labour market, in elementary occupations. Among legislators, senior officials and managers the female share was with 6% very low, but women made up majorities among professionals (54%) and among technicians and associate professionals (53%). _Literacy (2.7.1)._ The adult literacy rate –those age 15 and over that can read and write—in 1999-2006 was 98.7%, with hardly any gender gap: 99.0% for men and 98.3% for women. In 2007 literacy rate for 15-24-year-olds stood at 99.9%; young females even scored 100%. Education of girls (2.7.2). In 2006 the combined gross enrollment rate in education was 66.2%, divided in 65.3% for females and 67.2% for males. In the 2000s school life for girls has been prolonged substantially. Net enrollment in primary education was for 2006 set at 83.3% for girls and for boys 86.2% for boys; in secondary education these rates were 76.4% and 79.2%. Beyond the age of 16, enrollment rates drop off sharply, with 13% of young adults in tertiary education. In 2006-2007, female students made up 47% of all tertiary enrolled. _Female skill levels (2.7.3)._ Gender differences in the country’s education structure are rather small. Women are less represented at the highest level, but more at the second highest level. Women 25-29 of age are highest educated. Especially for women a serious underutilization of skills is at hand. We estimate the size of the target group of DECISIONS FOR LIFE for Azerbaijan at about 90,000 girls and young women working in urban areas in commercial services. _Wages (2.8.1)._ We found for 2008 large differences between wages across industries, as well as a large gender pay gap, totaling 43% -- fitting in the picture of a highly segmented labour market. Remarkably small was the gender pay gap in wholesale and retail, where men had quite low earnings. _Working conditions (2.8.2)._ Overall, gender differences in hours worked are small. Nearly one in four women works parttime i.e. less than 31 hours per week. In 2008, in eight of 15 industries the average monthly hours of females were longer than those of males, in four industries even considerably.

WP 93 - An overview of women's work and employment in Kazakhstan

*Management summary* This report provides information on Kazakhstan on behalf of the implementation of the DECISIONS FOR LIFE project in that country. The DECISIONS FOR LIFE project aims to raise awareness amongst young female workers about their employment opportunities and career possibilities, family building and the work-family balance. This report is part of the Inventories, to be made by the University of Amsterdam, for all 14 countries involved. It focuses on a gender analysis of work and employment. _History (2.1.1)._ Under the Soviet regime, the Kazahs had a hard time, initially not improving with the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the 2000s, based on its mineral wealth and high oil prices, the economy boomed, followed by a nosedive in 2008. Governance (2.1.2). Kazakhstan is a republic with a parliamentary system dominated by president Nazarbayev and his party. Recently the government’s human rights record remained poor. Though constitution and law provide for equal rights and freedoms for men and women, enforcement of human and women’s rights is weak. Women’s participation in politics and governance structures is low. _Prospects (2.1.3)._ The global economic crisis has a considerable impact on Kazakhstan’s economic and maybe social prospects. The government had to massively support the banking system. Though official (un)employment and wage fi gures for 2009 do not yet point at serious consequences for the population, projections until 2015 stick to low growth rates, which among other things may endanger the government’s ambituous diversifi cation program. _Communication (2.2)._ Though the coverage of fi xed telephone connections has recently increased, this is dwarfed by the expansion of the incidence of cell phones, to about one per inhabitant in 2008. By that year, 146 per 1,000 were Internet users. Nearly all households have a TV set. The government uses a variety of means to control the media and limit freedom of expression. _The sectoral labour market structure – Population and employment (2.3.1)._ Between 2001 and 2008 a growing ”formalisation” of the of the labour market took place, lifting the share of employees to about two-third. In particular women’s employment witnessed strong growth. Reaching 75% in 2008, women’s Labour Participation Rate (LPR) was rather high and 92% of men’s. _The sectoral labour market structure – Unemployment (2.3.2)_ In the 2000s unemployment fell from over 10% to below 7%, with female unemployment rates remaining one third above male. Youth employment is rather low, the highest unemoplyment rates are among the female 25-29 aged. _Legislation (2.4.1)._ Kazakhstan has ratifi ed the eight core ILO Labour Conventions. The Constitution provides for the freedom of association and the right to strike, though notably the latter right is subject to numerous legal limitations. In the informal economy the government did not enforce contracts or labour legislation. _Labour relations and wage-setting (2.4.2)._ The union movement of Kazakhstan consists of both “traditional” and, after independence newly created, “independent” trade unions. In the 1990s membership of in particular the traditional confederation fell heavily. In 2008, union density may have been about 50% (paid employees). Based on formally tripartite structures, the yearly General Agreement is the basis for national, regional and sectoral collective agreements. The statutory minimum wage (2.5.1). In 2009 the national monthly minimum wage, set by law, was 13,717 Tenge, or 23% of the country’s average monthly wage. Since 2004, the gap between the minimum and average wage has slightly decreased. Poverty (2.5.2). The country’s growth pattern has been pro-poor, with in the (early) 2000s poverty falling according to all yardsticks. For 2004, it was estimated that 16% of the population lived below the national poverty line. Income inequality is relatively limited. Nevertheless, an in-depth study revealed considerable housing poverty and poor quality of basic infrastructure services. _Population and fertility (2.6.1)._ Kazakstan’s population showed a sharp downward trend from 1989 to 2002, followed by a modest growth of on average 0.9% yearly. The total fertility rate, about 1.9 children per woman, and the adolescent fertility rate (29 per 1,000) are both rather low and stable. Early marriage and early pregnancy do occur, but seem to remain rather limited. _Health (2.6.2)._ In 2007, the number of people in Kazakhstan living with HIV was estimated at 12,000, or 0.7 per 1,000, low in comparison with the rest of the region. The levels of public awareness of HIV/AIDS are low, as is the case for knowledge on contraceptive prevalence among women. General health indicators are still low by international standards. In particular in urban areas, access to essential infrastructure services is limited. _Women’s labour market share (2.6.3)._ Women make up nearly half of the country’s labour force. In 2008 seven of 15 industries showed a female share above this average as well as a female majority. Women are clearly over-represented in four occupational groups at the higher and middle levels, each time with more than a two to one parity; even at the level of legislators, senior officials and managers, the female share of 38% is in international perspective rather high. _Literacy (2.7.1)._ The adult literacy rate –those age 15 and over that can read and write—in 1999-2006 was 97.9%, with a small gender gap: 99.0% for men and 96.7% for women. In 2007 the literacy rate for 15-24-year-olds stood at 99.8%; the young females scored 99.9%. _Education of girls (2.7.2)._ In 2006, the combined gross enrollment rate in education was 91.8%, divided in 88.5% for females and 95.1% for males. Net enrollment in primary education was for 2007 set at 99.4% for girls and 98.6% for boys. Women to men parity in secondary education increased to 97% in 2007. Income differences play a major role in further education after secondary school, though much more young women than young men enroll in universities and colleges. _Female skill levels (2.7.3)._ Women in the employed population have on average a higher educational level than their male colleagues. In contrast, women’s opportunities in work and employment are severely limited by the segmentation of the country’s labour market along regional and gender dimensions. We estimate the current size of the target group of DECISIONS FOR LIFE for Kazakhstan at about 230,000 girls and young women 15-29 of age working in urban areas in commercial services. _Wages (2.8.1)._ We found for 2008 a large gender pay gap, totaling 36%. Further, fi tting in the picture of a highly segmented labour market, wages in Kazakhstan vary largely across sectors, occupational categories, the urban – rural divide, and across regions. _Working conditions (2.8.2)._ Official statistical information concerning working conditions is quite limited. As far as can be traced, gender differences in hours worked are small.

WP 83 - An overview of women’s work and employment in Brazil

*Management Summary* This report provides information on Brazil on behalf of the implementation of the DECISIONS FOR LIFE project in that country. The DECISIONS FOR LIFE project aims to raise awareness amongst young female workers about their employment opportunities and career possibilities, family building and the work-family balance. This report is part of the Inventories, to be made by the University of Amsterdam, for all 14 countries involved. It focuses on a gender analysis of work and employment. History (2.1.1). Brazil, developed as an agricultural nation, in the 1930s started to industrialize and urbanise. A military regime, lasting from 1964-’85, initially sparked an “economic miracle”, but ended up with huge inflation and foreign debts, as well as social unrest. The transition to democracy was long and painful. The country definitely stabilized and developed an internationalist approach under the administrations of president Lula (2002-2010). Governance (2.1.2). A major governance challenge is that day-to-day life is marked by considerable violence. The position of women in politics is weak. Nevertheless, the country has a vibrant women’s movement. The rewritten 1988 Constitution of Brazil and the 2003 Family Code ended legal discrimination of women, but violence against women is persistent and widespread. Prospects (2.1.3). The global economic crisis has had limited effects on Brazil’s economy. For the time being the recovery has been remarkably strong. Leading economists perceive Brazil as the country that will likely see its competitiveness most favourably affected by the crisis. The position of women also seems not to be seriously hit by the crisis. Communication (2.2). Over three of each four Brazilians are cell phone users. The country’s Internet infrastructure and marketing are well developed, and Internet coverage actually is over 35%. Radio and TV have high coverage, but newspaper circulation is low. The sectoral labour market structure (2.3). In the 2000s, especially between 2001-2004, female employment continued to grow more rapidly than male. Also, formal employment grew quicker than informal labour. In 2007, employees made up 70% of the labour force. The official unemployment rate fluctuates between 8-9%, but female unemployment remains about 5%points higher than males. Unemployment of female 15-29-year-olds is with 18-19% considerable. Legislation (2.4.1). Brazil has ratified the core ILO Labour Conventions except No. 87, on the freedom of association, leading to criticism of ITUC and ILO. The CLT of 1943 still forms the basis of labour legislation. Labour relations and wage-setting (2.4.2). In the 2000s, union strength has remained stable. For 2007, union density was counted at 17.7% of the working population, and women’s density rate may be estimated at 15-16%. Since 2002, a number of social dialogue institutions and processes have been set up. The statutory minimum wage (2.5.1). The Lula government has substantially increased the statutory minimum wage, lifting the real value with about 45%. Negative employment effects can hardly be traced, whereas the increases have contributed to a less uneven income distribution. Poverty (2.5.2). For 2006, it has been estimated that 18.3% of the Brazilian population lived below the poverty line of USD 2 a day. Both income inequality and poverty in Brazil remain high, but they have been declining in recent years. Quite recently income inequality may even have fallen spectacularly. In spite of signs of smaller urban-rural differences, like in school enrollment rates, rural poverty remains deep and widespread. Population and fertility (2.6.1). Current population growth rate is estimated at 1.2% per year, and is still slowing down. With 2.2 children per woman, the total fertility rate is rather low; birth control is widespread. The decline of the adolescent fertility rate seems to have ended; about one quarter of female 18-19-year-olds is mother. Brazil is highly urbanised, with 85% of the population living in urban areas. Health (2.6.2). In 2007, about 730,000 Brazilians or nearly 0.4% lived with HIV. Since 1998 the death rate from AIDS has steadily declined: an achievement attributed to the country’s treatment policies. The country’s health disparities are still considerable. Women’s labour market share (2.6.3). The overall labour partication rate of the 15-64 of age is 72%, but only 63% for women. The 2007 women’s share in the labour force was largest in households (98%), education (78%), and health and social work (77%). The female share was considerable in finance (49%), bur relatively low in commerce (40%), other business (33%), and public administration (38%). There were female majorities among professionals as well as clerks (both 59%), service and sales workers (58%), but also in elementary occupations (55%). Agriculture (2.6.4). The majority of farms is very small, and many produce at subsistence level. Under the prevailing conditions it is unlikely that many young women living in urban areas and trying to make a career can rely on a “fall-back scenario” in which they can go back to their families living from agriculture. Mining and manufacturing (2.6.5). In 2007 the single largest industry employing women was apparel. Female employment in more sophisticated manufacturing is relatively small, also in export industries. Commerce (2.6.6). The large majority of commerce employees is employed in small companies with less than 500 employees, over half operating in the informal economy. Between 1995-2007 employment in commerce doubled, and prospects for further growth are good. Services (2.6.7). Continued employment growth may be expected in tourism; the financial sector, and real estate and other business. This growth may offer good employment opportunities for women working at the three highest occupational levels and as clerks. Government (2.6.8). Past decisions on expansion of the public service and appointing higher-ranked public officers seem to have favoured men. Adoption of equal opportunities legislation will contribute to the entry of many (young) women in public service. Literacy (2.7.1). The adult literacy rate –those age 15 and over that can read and write—was in 2007 exactly 90%, with the female rate a fraction higher. The youth (15-24-year-olds) literacy rate was nearly 98%, with the rate of girls 1.5%point higher. Education of girls and young women (2.7.2). Combined gross enrollment in education was in 2006 overall 87%. Net enrollment in primary education of the 6-14-year-olds was in 2007 97%, with enrollment for girls a fraction higher than for boys. Though the enrollment rate for the 15-19-year-olds increased to 80% in 2005, school attendance is much lower. For girls, young motherhood, poverty and poor quality of public education are factors influencing school attendance negatively. In 2006, 8% of the 18-year-olds was enrolled in tertiary education, increasing to 15% among the 22-year-olds. Female participation in tertiary education exceeds male participation by far. Female skill levels (2.7.3). The average level of education completed of women is considerably higher than that of men. At the two lowest skill levels 47% of all male workers could be found against 37% of all females. At the highest (tertiary) level women had a clear advantage, with a 12% share against 7% for men. The average female skill rating is 3.04, against a male average of 2.73. As for Brazil, about 4.3 million girls and young women can be estimated to belong to the DECISION FOR LIFE target group, of which about 3 million in paid employment and the others as self-employed or contributing family workers. Wages (2.8.1). Though slightly decreasing, the gender pay gap is still quite large. Based on WageIndicator data, for 2007-08 the average gender pay gap in Brazil was calculated at 38.5%, in spite of the average higher skill level of the female labour force. The gender pay gap was about the same in the private and public sectors. Discriminatory practices in wage formation continue to have a major impact on women’s pay. Working conditions (2.8.2). In 2005, 36% of all employees usually worked over 44 hours. Average working weeks are rather long. In 2007, usual working hours of women were notably long in manufacturing (average 42.3 hours weekly), wholesale and retail (43.2 hours), and restaurants and hotels (43.7 hours).

WP 91 - An overview of women's work and employment in Indonesia

The DECISIONS FOR LIFE project aims to raise awareness amongst young female workers about their employment opportunities and career possibilities, family building and the work-family balance. The lifetime decisions adolescent women face, determine not only their individual future, but also that of society: their choices are key to the demographic and workforce development of the nation. DECISIONS FOR LIFE is awarded a MDG3 grant from the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs as part of its strategy to support the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals no 3 (MDG3): “Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women”. DECISIONS FOR LIFE more specifically focuses on MDG3.5: “Promoting formal employment and equal opportunities at the labour market”, which is one of the four MDG3 priority areas identified in Ministry’s MDG3 Fund. DECISIONS FOR LIFE runs from October 2008 until June 2011 (See "http://www.wageindicator.org/main/projects/decisions-for-life":http://www.wageindicator.org/main/projects/decisions-for-life). DECISIONS FOR LIFE focuses on 14 developing countries, notably Brazil, India, Indonesia, the CIS countries Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and the southern African countries Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Project partners are International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC), Union Network International (UNI), WageIndicator Foundation, and University of Amsterdam/AIAS. This report is part of the Inventories, to be made by the University of Amsterdam, for all 14 countries involved. All reports will be posted at the project website. In this country report on Indonesia the sequence of the sections differs from the table. The report covers mainly Activity nr 1.03, the Gender analysis regarding pay and working conditions (or, as Chapter 2 is called here, work and employment). Partly included (in section 2.4.1) is Activity 1.01, Inventories of national legislation; partly the analysis of national legislation has resulted in a separate product, the DecentWorkCheck for Indonesia. Activity 1.02, Inventories of companies’ regulations, will take place through a company survey. Preparations for Activities 1.03a and 1.03b have resulted in a number of lists, to be used in the WageIndicator web-survey for country-specific questions and their analyses (Chapter 3). References can be found in Chapter 4; Chapter 5 gives more insight in the WageIndicator. _The sectoral labour market structure – Formal and informal employment (2.3.2)_ Slightly over 30% of all employed and less than 28% of females is currently working in the formal sector. About 42% of the total labour force and 32% of the females are self-employed. In the early 2000s the informal sector absorbed the largest amount of new entrants to the labour market, but this reversed in 2003-04. _The sectoral labour market structure – Unemployment (2.3.3)_. In the course of the 2000s unemployment for women remained at a higher level than for men. Unemployment is highest among youngsters, with for girls and young women in 2008 an offi cial unemployment rates of over 18%. _Legislation (2.4.1)_. Indonesia has ratifi ed the core ILO Labour Conventions. Yet, for unions there are a number of serious constraints. on collective bargaining and declaring strikes. The ITUC remains highly critical of the country’s enforcement of labour legislation. Labour relations and trade unionism (2.4.2). Under Suharto’s New Order trade unions were disciplined, with (K)SPSI (con)federation as main vehicle of these policies. After the collapse of the Suharto regime the right to organise was restored. Since then, the union movement developed in highly fragmented direction. Union density can be estimated at 8-10% for the labour force at large. Women have a weak position in the union movement, though incidental successes in collective bargaining on behalf of women can be traced. _The statutory minimum wage (2.5.1)._ The statutory minimum wage structure is complex and not transparent. Though the minimum wage rates are based on cost of living calculations, after the gap between minimum living needs and (average) minimum wage levels has widened. Moreover, the informal sector is not included. Compliance and enforcement are weak. _Poverty (2.5.2)._ For 2005, it has been estimated that 53.8% of its population lived below the poverty line of USD 2 a day. From 1999 on, income inequality is growing. Official inequality seems low, but correction for varying consumption patterns brings Indonesia in the middle-high inequality ranks. The incidence of working poor is highest among casual workers, followed by unpaid and own-account workers. There may be a shift to urban poverty: in the 2000s the number of slum dwellers in the cities has increased strongly. _Health (2.6.2)._ In 2007, in Indonesia about 270,000 people lived with HIV/AIDS. Epidemics concentrate among injection drug users and sex workers. Health disparities are considerable, and government expenditure on health care is low. Women’s labour market share (2.6.3). The 2008 women’s share in the labour force was nearly 38%. It was highest in households (76%), health and social work (57%), restaurants and hotels (56%), and education (55%). In 2008 still about 40% of women employed worked in agriculture, followed by wholesale and retail (22%). 48% of female employees and 45% of the total female labour force worked in services, broadly defined. With 22% respectively 24% in 2008, the Indonesian shares of female legislators, senior offi cials and managers among employees respectively the labour force at large were rather low. _Agriculture (2.6.4)._ Problems of land fragmentation, poor bureaucracy and infrastructure still dog agriculture. Under the prevailing conditions it is unlikely that many young women living in urban areas and trying to make a career can rely on a “fall-back scenario” in which they can go back to their families living from agriculture. _Mining and manufacturing (2.6.5)._ About two million women are dependent on employment in low wagebased, labour intensive industries, but Indonesia’s share in these industries is falling. The prospects in manufacturing for girls and young women are not bright, maybe except for some professional and technical occupations. _Commerce (2.6.6)._ In the 2000s, commerce has expanded rapidly, though most recently the retail industry has suffered from falling purchasing power. Super- and hypermarkets continue to expand, with foreign investors playing major roles. In the course of the 2000s, wage rates and working conditions of retail workers seem to have deteriorated. _Services (2.6.7)._ Formal labour is quite limited in commercial services except commerce. Tourism is an important source of employment, also for women, but its groweth may be hampered by low wages, unfavourable working conditions and lack of professionalism. The fi nance sector remains comparatively small, with employment prospects for girls and young women in the sector remaining limited as well. Government (2.6.8). Since 2000, its size of public administration has been slimmed down, and in the process the already small female share has even declined to 20%. Average public sector wages are not extremely high, but still at the level of the finance sector. _Literacy (2.7.1)._ The adult literacy rates –those age 15 and over that can read and write—were in 2008 95.4% for men and 89.1% for women. The youth (15-24-year-olds) literacy rates were in 2006 97.0% for young males and 96.3% for young females. Education of girls and young women (2.7.2). Combined gross enrollment in education was in 2006 overall 68.2%: females 66.8%, males 69.5%. Net enrollment in primary education was in 2007 98%, with boys’ enrollment at 100% and girls’ at 96%. However, recent reports stress the poor quality of much of primary education. The drop-out ratio during the secondary school ages is considerable. The urban – rural divide is large in educational facilities, and is refl ected in lower enrollment and completion rates in rural areas. In 2007 tertiary gross enrollment was 18%, and equal for both genders. _Female skill levels (2.7.3)._ A larger share of female workers than males had no education at all completed but the share of working females educated at the three highest levels was also higher than that of men. The females aged 15-29 make the difference: by 2008 they had a higher average educational level than their male peers. As for Indonesia, about 2.5 million girls and young women can be estimated to belong to the DECISION FOR LIFE target group, as they work in commercial services in urban areas. About half of them did so in regular wage employment, with the other half working as self-employed, family workers or casual wage-earners. _Wages (2.8.1)_ Large income differences show up between workers of different type (employment status) and across industries. For both sexes the highest wages are paid in the fi nance sector, closely followed by public administration and utilities. With 23% the gender pay gap in Indonesia is still considerable. Working conditions (2.8.2). According to offi cial fi gures for 2009 over 9 million women are working more than 48 hours per week. Long working hours are in particular made by women in households (average 51.4 hours in 2008), wholesale and retail (49.2 hours) and hotels and restaurants (47.8 hours), and these averages were even prolonged between 2000 and 2008. _Population and fertility (2.6.1)._ Current population growth is estimated at 1.3% per year, and is still slowing down. With 2.2 children per woman, the total fertility rate is rather low. With an estimated 51 to 54 births per 1,000 women 15-19 of age, the adolescent fertility rate is in the low-to-moderate range worldwide. Indonesia is urbanising at high speed, with in 2008 52% living in urban areas.

Impact of Regional Factors on Cohort Fertility: New Estimations at the District Level in Germany

"Incorporating the regional context into fertility research has a long standing tradition. However, in Germany, fertility data at the district level only exist for period total fertility rates (TFR), but not for cohort total fertility rates (CTFR). Based on the 2011 census and birth statistics, we estimate the CTFR at the district level and analyse factors influencing their variation. First, we estimate the CTFR for the 1969-72 cohorts in all 402 German districts. The estimated CTFR differ strongly across German districts ranging between 1.05 and 2.01. Further, the estimated CTFR differ substantially from the known TFR values. This is mainly due to biases in the tempo component of the TFR, which are crucial in East German districts, university cities and in urban-rural comparisons. Therefore, the estimated CTFR allow for a better assessment of fertility differences across districts. Second, we analyse the differences in the newly estimated CTFR employing regression models. Composition effects such as a low proportion of highly educated women, a high share of Catholics or immigrants are significantly associated with higher CTFR in West German districts. However, regional opportunities are also important: A low population density, the availability of relatively spacious dwellings, a surplus of males, a small service sector and low unemployment rates are associated with higher fertility. Overall the analyses show regional factors are highly relevant for fertility." (author's abstract). This article contains supplementary material in the form of an online appendix: http://dx.doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2017-08e

WP 80 - An overview of women’s work and employment in Zambia

*Management Summary* This report provides information on Zambia on behalf of the implementation of the DECISIONS FOR LIFE project in that country. The DECISIONS FOR LIFE project aims to raise awareness amongst young female workers about their employment opportunities and career possibilities, family building and the work-family balance. This report is part of the Inventories, to be made by the University of Amsterdam, for all 14 countries involved. It focuses on a gender analysis of work and employment. History (2.1.1). After Zambia gained its independence from the United Kingdom in 1964, the Kaunda administration moved towards a one-party system and central planning. With falling copper prices and poor management, and the country’s GDP per capita continuing to fall, in 1991 a multi-party democracy was installed and Kaunda had to retreat. In the 1990s, liberalization and privatisation did not spur economic growth, while corruption grew. In the 2000s Zambia experienced strong growth, though the country remains one of the world’s poorest. Governance (2.1.2). Since 1991 Zambia’s political record has been rather stable. Its human rights record, by contrast, remains rather poor. Especially women and children trafficking is a major problem. The participation of Zambian women in politics is quite limited. Also, they have very limited rights in relation to family matters, including issues related to land ownership. Prospects (2.1.3). Recently Zambia has been confronted with the negative effects of lowering copper prices and with a grave electricity situation. The country may escape the worst effects of the current economic and financial crisis because of its limited integration in the global financial system, though the negative effects on women may be relatively large where their future depends on access to finance. Communication (2.2). Over 2.6 million cell phones are already in use, one to each five Zambians. Internet coverage is still low, with in 2007 about 4% of the population as users. Radio is the most utilized medium. Women constitute only one of six news sources. The sectoral labour market structure (2.3). In 2005, women made up 46% of the total labour force; 49% of those in informal labour, and 137,000 or 27% of those in formal employment. 78% of the economically active women worked in agriculture. The share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector was 28%. Unemployment is mainly caused by an absolute lack of jobs, and is especially high among the young. In 2005, unemployment among girls and young women aged 15-29 in urban areas was 41%. Legislation (2.4.1). Zambia has ratified the core ILO Labour Conventions, but procedural requirements frustrate holding legal strikes. Also, women remain severely disadvantaged in employment and education, notably the overwhelming majority working in the informal economy. Labour relations (2.4.2). Union strength has been weakened over the years. 2006 estimates point at a union density of 60 to 66% in the formal economy, or about 10% of the total labour force. Two union confederations are in place, ZCTU and the much smaller FFTUZ. The statutory minimum wage (2.5.1). Though many advocate a rise of the current statutory minimum wage (SMW), pointing at the rising costs of living, with Kwacha 268,000 per month the SMW is still at the level set in May 2006. By then, that level varied from 21 to 91% of monthly average earnings in the main industries. Half a year before setting the SMW rate, 35% of paid employees earned less than that rate. Poverty (2.5.2). For 2004-05, it has been estimated that 82% of the population lived under the poverty line of USD 2 per day. Since 1993, the share of the extremely poor has decreased. Yet, especially in rural areas the poverty pattern continues to be detrimental for the future of women and girls. Population and fertility (2.6.1). Population growth has been falling recently, from an average 2.4% in 2000-’07 to an expected 1.9% in 2005-’15. With 6.2 children per women, the total fertility rate remains very high, as does (with 146 per 1,000) the adolescent fertility rate. HIV/AIDS (2.6.2). In 2007, over 1.1 million Zambians lived with HIV, and the HIV/AIDS prevalence rate for those aged 15-49 was estimated at 14%. For women aged 30-39 years the rate was even about 25%. Yet, HIV prevalence among the 15-24 of age is reported to decrease. Official policies stress that the spread of HIV/AIDS is related to domestic violence and poor empowerment of women. Women’s labour market share (2.6.3). The labour partication rate of the 15-64 of age overall is 71%, but only 61% for women. With just over 50%, the 2005 women’s share in employment was highest in agriculture, followed by restaurants and hotels (49%), community, social and personal services (48%), and commerce (45%). Agriculture (2.6.4). The perspectives for agricultural growth are rather bleak. The most female-intensive sub-sectors are also the least skill-intensive. Thus, young women living in urban areas and trying to make a career cannot rely on a “fall-back scenario” in which they can go back to their families living from agriculture. Mining and manufacturing (2.6.5). Trade liberalisation of the 1990s has been disastrous for indigeneous manufacturing industries such as textiles and clothing, and thus notably for females. The competitive position of domestic-owned, small-scale manufacturing remains very weak. Commerce (2.6.6). 95-97% of all women working in commerce did so in the informal sector. In 2005 women made up a minority in all sales jobs, but took half of all high-skilled jobs in commerce. Supermarkets are only a quite limited source of employment for women. Services (2.6.7). Women constitute nearly half of the labour force in commercial services. In 2005 nearly one third could be found in formal employment. Tourism is an expanding source of employment, but the development of international call centres does not seem to take off. Government (2.6.8). The public sector has traditionally been a male stronghold, and still only about one quarter of public servants is female. The public sector seems to have lost its wage premium, especially for the high-skilled. Literacy (2.7.1). The adult literacy rate –those age 15 and over that can read and write—was in 1995-2005 68%. As the female rate was only 60%, a substantial gender gap remains. Recently this gender gap widens, in general as well as among the 15-24 year-olds. Education of girls and young women (2.7.2). For 2007, the net enrollment rate in primary education was over 95%, with girls 1%point higher than boys, but the primary completion rate of girls was 11%points lower: girls make up for the large majority of early school-leavers. With 26% in 2005, the net enrollment rate in secondary education was rather low, with 23.5% notably for girls. Recently in most categories of technical vocational training women outnumbered men, but in regular tertiary education there were twice as many male students Female skill levels (2.7.3). In 2005 64% of the economically active Zambian women were unskilled, nearly 33% had at least completed lower secondary education (skilled), and 66,000 or 3.6% had completed tertiairy education (high-skilled). We estimate the current size of our target group at about 106,000 girls and young women 15-29 of age working in urban areas in commercial services, of which only 20,000 in formal employment. Wages (2.8.1). Earnings vary widely between industries, occupational groups, and urban and rural areas. Earnings of women in formal employment in finance etc. and in community, social and personal services are about four times those in trade etc. and in hotels and restaurants. Education may explain part of the gender pay gap, but discrimination is another factor. Calculated on an hourly earnings basis, the countrywide gender pay gap in 2005 was 45%, and for paid employees 13%. In restaurants and hotels, transport etc., finance etc. and community and other services, the gap was below 20%, but in trade etc. it was 44%. Working conditions (2.8.2). Average working weeks turn out to be quite long in Zambia, for women especially in restaurants and hotels, transport etc., finance etc., and trade etc., in urban areas, and among paid employees and high-skilled. In 2005, about one of five of the employed reported illness (excluding HIV/AIDS), as did a slightly higher share on injury. Workers aged 15-29 reported comparatively much skin problems as well as wounds and deep cuts.