Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Study on Microwave Deicing Efficiency of Microwave-Absorbing Concrete Pavements and Its Influencing Factors

Microwave deicing technology, as a new environmentally friendly deicing technology, can effectively solve the problem of the frequent icing of road surfaces in the winter, which affects the safety of traffic. To improve the efficiency of microwave deicing on cement concrete pavement, this study proposed the use of magnetite, iron sulfide slag, steel slag, lead–zinc slag, and graphite as microwave-absorbing materials, and conducted microwave deicing tests under the influence of five factors, namely the form of the pavement surface structure, the content of the microwave-absorbing material, microwave power, the shielding state, and dry and wet conditions. Layer by layer, we selected the combination of pavement surface structure, microwave-absorbing material content, microwave power, shielding state, and dry and wet conditions on the bottom surface of the concrete slab with the optimal deicing effect. The results showed that the 2 cm scattered microwave-absorbing surface concrete structure has the fastest heating rate; the higher the magnetite content and microwave power, the higher the deicing efficiency; the maximum heating rate can be increased by 17.6% when the shielding layer is set at the bottom of the cement concrete slab; and the heating rate of the microwave-absorbing concrete slab in the wet state is increased by 20.8% relative to the dry state. In summary, 7000 W of power, a magnetite content of 60 vol % in the scattered microwave-absorbing surface, a shielding layer set at the bottom surface, and wet conditions can greatly improve the efficiency of microwave deicing compared with the microwave ice melting effects of plain cement concrete and other microwave-absorbing materials mixed into the concrete. In addition, the temperature uniformity of the microwave-absorbing materials is essential to improve the deicing efficiency of microwave-absorbing concrete, so it is essential to explore it further

Waveguide modulated non-local optical interaction of semiconductor microdisks

The non-local optical interaction of two semiconductor microdisks with a waveguide bridged at radial direction is proposed and studied by three dimensional finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) electromagnetic simulations. The strong and weak optical interactions between two microdisks are observed and ascribed to the internal coupled modes with different coupling ratios. The vertical radiation losses and the related mode quality factors are modulated by waveguide length and present oscillation characteristics for the resonant modes. In addition, the optical leakage of coupling system is affected by the etching depth of disks due to the emission of minor components of electric field. ? 2014 Chinese Optics Letters

Clinical outcomes of guider-assisted osteotomy compared to conventional pendulum-saw osteotomy in open wedge high tibial osteotomy: a propensity score-matched cohort study

Abstract Purpose We developed a novel guider-assisted osteotomy (GAO) procedure to improve the safety of open wedge high tibial osteotomy (OWHTO) and aimed to compare its efficacy and complications with the conventional pendulum-saw osteotomy (PSO). Methods This is a retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing either GAO or PSO procedure in the OWHTO to treat varus knee osteoarthritis, who had a minimum of 2 years of follow-up. Patients were propensity score matched (PSM) in a 1:1 ratio based on demographic and clinical data with a caliper width of 0.02. The outcomes assessed involved the hospital for special surgery (HSS) and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) score, and the Intraoperative and postoperative complications. Results 199 patients were included in each group after PSM. The mean duration of follow-up was 38.3 ± 8.9 months. The GAO group had a shorter operation duration (104.5 ± 35.7 vs. 112.1 ± 36.0 min, p = 0.027) and fewer times of intraoperative fluoroscopy (4.2 ± 1.4 vs. 6.0 ± 1.4, p  0.05). In addition, the intraoperative complications (0.5% vs. 3.5%, p = 0.068) and the postoperative bone delayed union and nonunion (1.0% vs. 4.5%, p = 0.032) were marginally or significantly reduced in the GAO versus PSO group. Conclusion GAO demonstrates improvements in intraoperative radiation exposure and complications, with comparable short-term efficacy to PSO, and could be considered a viable alternative in clinical practice

Automatic segmentation of hemispheric CSF on MRI using deep learning: Quantifying cerebral edema following large hemispheric infarction

Background and objective: Cerebral edema (CED) is a serious complication of acute ischemic stroke (AIS), especially in patients with large hemispheric infarction (LHI). Herein, a deep learning-based approach is implemented to extract CSF from T2-Weighted Imaging (T2WI) and evaluate the relationship between quantified cerebrospinal fluid and outcomes. Methods: Patients with acute LHI who underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were included. We used a deep learning algorithm to segment the CSF from T2WI. The hemispheric CSF ratio was calculated to evaluate its relationship with the degree of brain edema and prognosis in patients with LHI. Results: For the 93 included patients, the left and right cerebrospinal fluid regions were automatically extracted with a mean Dice similarity coefficient of 0.830. Receiver operating characteristic analysis indicated that hemispheric CSF ratio was an accurate marker for qualitative severe cerebral edema (area under receiver-operating-characteristic curve 0.867 [95% CI, 0.781–0.929]). Multivariate logistic regression analysis of functional prognosis showed that previous stroke (OR = 5.229, 95% CI 1.013–26.984), ASPECT≤6 (OR = 13.208, 95% CI 1.136–153.540) and low hemispheric CSF ratio (OR = 0.966, 95% CI 0.937–0.997) were significantly associated with higher chances for unfavorable functional outcome in patients with LHI. Conclusions: Automated assessment of CSF volume provides an objective biomarker of cerebral edema that can be leveraged to quantify the degree of cerebral edema and confirm its predictive effect on outcomes after LHI