Existence and Stability of a Spike in the Central Component for a Consumer Chain Model

We study a three-component consumer chain model which is based on Schnakenberg type kinetics. In this model there is one consumer feeding on the producer and a second consumer feeding on the first consumer. This means that the first consumer (central component) plays a hybrid role: it acts both as consumer and producer. The model is an extension of the Schnakenberg model suggested in \cite{gm,schn1} for which there is only one producer and one consumer. It is assumed that both the producer and second consumer diffuse much faster than the central component. We construct single spike solutions on an interval for which the profile of the first consumer is that of a spike. The profiles of the producer and the second consumer only vary on a much larger spatial scale due to faster diffusion of these components. It is shown that there exist two different single spike solutions if the feed rates are small enough: a large-amplitude and a small-amplitude spike. We study the stability properties of these solutions in terms of the system parameters. We use a rigorous analysis for the linearized operator around single spike solutions based on nonlocal eigenvalue problems. The following result is established: If the time-relaxation constants for both producer and second consumer vanish, the large-amplitude spike solution is stable and the small-amplitude spike solution is unstable. We also derive results on the stability of solutions when these two time-relaxation constants are small. We show a new effect: if the time-relaxation constant of the second consumer is very small, the large-amplitude spike solution becomes unstable. To the best of our knowledge this phenomenon has not been observed before for the stability of spike patterns. It seems that this behavior is not possible for two-component reaction-diffusion systems but that at least three components are required. Our main motivation to study this system is mathematical since the novel interaction of a spike in the central component with two other components results in new types of conditions for the existence and stability of a spike. This model is realistic if several assumptions are made: (i) cooperation of consumers is prevalent in the system, (ii) the producer and the second consumer diffuse much faster than the first consumer, and (iii) there is practically an unlimited pool of producer. The first assumption has been proven to be correct in many types of consumer groups or populations, the second assumption occurs if the central component has a much smaller mobility than the other two, the third assumption is realistic if the consumers do not feel the impact of the limited amount of producer due to its large quantity. This chain model plays a role in population biology, where consumer and producer are often called predator and prey. This system can also be used as a model for a sequence of irreversible autocatalytic reactions in a container which is in contact with a well-stirred reservoir

Measurement and simulation of the 16/17 April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash layer dispersion in the northern Alpine region

The spatial structure and the progression speed of the first ash layer from the Icelandic Eyjafjallajökull volcano which reached Germany on 16/17 April is investigated from remote sensing data and numerical simulations. The ceilometer network of the German Meteorological Service was able to follow the progression of the ash layer over the whole of Germany. This first ash layer turned out to be a rather shallow layer of only several hundreds of metres thickness which was oriented slantwise in the middle troposphere and which was brought downward by large-scale sinking motion over Southern Germany and the Alps. Special Raman lidar measurements, trajectory analyses and in-situ observations from mountain observatories helped to confirm the volcanic origin of the detected aerosol layer. Ultralight aircraft measurements permitted the detection of the arrival of a second major flush of volcanic material in Southern Germany. Numerical simulations with the Eulerian meso-scale model MCCM were able to reproduce the temporal and spatial structure of the ash layer. Comparisons of the model results with the ceilometer network data on 17 April and with the ultralight aircraft data on 19 April were satisfying. This is the first example of a model validation study from this ceilometer network data

Stability of cluster solutions in a cooperative consumer chain model

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below. Copyright @ Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012.We study a cooperative consumer chain model which consists of one producer and two consumers. It is an extension of the Schnakenberg model suggested in Gierer and Meinhardt [Kybernetik (Berlin), 12:30-39, 1972] and Schnakenberg (J Theor Biol, 81:389-400, 1979) for which there is only one producer and one consumer. In this consumer chain model there is a middle component which plays a hybrid role: it acts both as consumer and as producer. It is assumed that the producer diffuses much faster than the first consumer and the first consumer much faster than the second consumer. The system also serves as a model for a sequence of irreversible autocatalytic reactions in a container which is in contact with a well-stirred reservoir. In the small diffusion limit we construct cluster solutions in an interval which have the following properties: The spatial profile of the third component is a spike. The profile for the middle component is that of two partial spikes connected by a thin transition layer. The first component in leading order is given by a Green's function. In this profile multiple scales are involved: The spikes for the middle component are on the small scale, the spike for the third on the very small scale, the width of the transition layer for the middle component is between the small and the very small scale. The first component acts on the large scale. To the best of our knowledge, this type of spiky pattern has never before been studied rigorously. It is shown that, if the feedrates are small enough, there exist two such patterns which differ by their amplitudes.We also study the stability properties of these cluster solutions. We use a rigorous analysis to investigate the linearized operator around cluster solutions which is based on nonlocal eigenvalue problems and rigorous asymptotic analysis. The following result is established: If the time-relaxation constants are small enough, one cluster solution is stable and the other one is unstable. The instability arises through large eigenvalues of order O(1). Further, there are small eigenvalues of order o(1) which do not cause any instabilities. Our approach requires some new ideas: (i) The analysis of the large eigenvalues of order O(1) leads to a novel system of nonlocal eigenvalue problems with inhomogeneous Robin boundary conditions whose stability properties have been investigated rigorously. (ii) The analysis of the small eigenvalues of order o(1) needs a careful study of the interaction of two small length scales and is based on a suitable inner/outer expansion with rigorous error analysis. It is found that the order of these small eigenvalues is given by the smallest diffusion constant ε22.RGC of Hong Kon

Structural Stability and Renormalization Group for Propagating Fronts

A solution to a given equation is structurally stable if it suffers only an infinitesimal change when the equation (not the solution) is perturbed infinitesimally. We have found that structural stability can be used as a velocity selection principle for propagating fronts. We give examples, using numerical and renormalization group methods.Comment: 14 pages, uiucmac.tex, no figure

Molecular Characterization of the Gastrula in the Turtle Emys orbicularis: An Evolutionary Perspective on Gastrulation

Due to the presence of a blastopore as in amphibians, the turtle has been suggested to exemplify a transition form from an amphibian- to an avian-type gastrulation pattern. In order to test this hypothesis and gain insight into the emergence of the unique characteristics of amniotes during gastrulation, we have performed the first molecular characterization of the gastrula in a reptile, the turtle Emys orbicularis. The study of Brachyury, Lim1, Otx2 and Otx5 expression patterns points to a highly conserved dynamic of expression with amniote model organisms and makes it possible to identify the site of mesoderm internalization, which is a long-standing issue in reptiles. Analysis of Brachyury expression also highlights the presence of two distinct phases, less easily recognizable in model organisms and respectively characterized by an early ring-shaped and a later bilateral symmetrical territory. Systematic comparisons with tetrapod model organisms lead to new insights into the relationships of the blastopore/blastoporal plate system shared by all reptiles, with the blastopore of amphibians and the primitive streak of birds and mammals. The biphasic Brachyury expression pattern is also consistent with recent models of emergence of bilateral symmetry, which raises the question of its evolutionary significance

Risk factor analysis and spatiotemporal CART model of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia

Background: It remains unclear whether it is possible to develop a spatiotemporal epidemic prediction model for cryptosporidiosis disease. This paper examined the impact of social economic and weather factors on cryptosporidiosis and explored the possibility of developing such a model using social economic and weather data in Queensland, Australia.Methods: Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and social economic factors in Queensland were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Three-stage spatiotemporal classification and regression tree (CART) models were developed to examine the association between social economic and weather factors and monthly incidence of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia. The spatiotemporal CART model was used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia.Results: The results of the classification tree model (with incidence rates defined as binary presence/absence) showed that there was an 87% chance of an occurrence of cryptosporidiosis in a local government area (LGA) if the socio-economic index for the area (SEIFA) exceeded 1021, while the results of regression tree model (based on non-zero incidence rates) show when SEIFA was between 892 and 945, and temperature exceeded 32°C, the relative risk (RR) of cryptosporidiosis was 3.9 (mean morbidity: 390.6/100,000, standard deviation (SD): 310.5), compared to monthly average incidence of cryptosporidiosis. When SEIFA was less than 892 the RR of cryptosporidiosis was 4.3 (mean morbidity: 426.8/100,000, SD: 319.2). A prediction map for the cryptosporidiosis outbreak was made according to the outputs of spatiotemporal CART models.Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that spatiotemporal CART models based on social economic and weather variables can be used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia

Influences of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic plume on air quality in the northern Alpine region

A series of major eruptions of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland started on 14 April 2010 and continued until the end of May 2010. The volcanic emissions moved over nearly the whole of Europe and were observed first on 16 April 2010 in Southern Germany with different remote sensing systems from the ground and space. Enhanced PM10 and SO2 concentrations were detected on 17 April at mountain stations (Zugspitze/Schneefernerhaus and Schauinsland) as well as in Innsbruck by in situ measurement devices. On 19 April intensive vertical mixing and advection along with clear-sky conditions facilitated the entrainment of volcanic material down to the ground. The subsequent formation of a stably stratified lower atmosphere with limited mixing near the ground during the evening of 19 April led to an additional enhancement of near-surface particle concentrations. Consequently, on 19 April and 20 April exceedances of the daily threshold value for particulate matter (PM10) were reported at nearly all monitoring stations of the North Alpine foothills as well as at mountain and valley stations in the northern Alps. The chemical analyses of ambient PM10 at monitoring stations of the North Alpine foothills yielded elevated Titanium concentrations on 19/20 April which prove the presence of volcanic plume material. Following this result the PM10 threshold exceedances are also associated with the volcanic plume. The entrainment of the volcanic plume material mainly affected the concentrations of coarse particles (>1 μm) – interpreted as volcanic ash – and ultrafine particles (<100 nm), while the concentrations of accumulation mode aerosol (0.1–1 μm) were not changed significantly. With regard to the occurrence of ultrafine particles, it is concluded that their formation was triggered by high sulphuric acid concentrations which are necessarily generated by the photochemical processes in a plume rich in sulphur dioxide under high solar irradiance. It became evident that during the course of several days, the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic emissions influenced the near-surface atmosphere and thus the ambient air quality. Although the volcanic plume contributed to the overall exposure of the population of the northern Alpine region on two days, only minor effects on the exacerbation of respiratory and cardiovascular symptoms can be expected

Validation of the Swiss methane emission inventory by atmospheric observations and inverse modelling

Atmospheric inverse modelling has the potential to provide observation-based estimates of greenhouse gas emissions at the country scale, thereby allowing for an independent validation of national emission inventories. Here, we present a regional-scale inverse modelling study to quantify the emissions of methane (CH$_{4}$) from Switzerland, making use of the newly established CarboCount-CH measurement network and a high-resolution Lagrangian transport model. In our reference inversion, prior emissions were taken from the “bottom-up” Swiss Greenhouse Gas Inventory (SGHGI) as published by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment in 2014 for the year 2012. Overall we estimate national CH$_{4}$ emissions to be 196 ± 18 Ggyr$^{-1}$ for the year 2013 (1σ uncertainty). This result is in close agreement with the recently revised SGHGI estimate of 206 ± 33 Ggyr$^{-1}$ as reported in 2015 for the year 2012. Results from sensitivity inversions using alternative prior emissions, uncertainty covariance settings, large-scale background mole fractions, two different inverse algorithms (Bayesian and extended Kalman filter), and two different transport models confirm the robustness and independent character of our estimate. According to the latest SGHGI estimate the main CH$_{4}$ source categories in Switzerland are agriculture (78 %), waste handling (15 %) and natural gas distribution and combustion (6 %). The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of our posterior emissions suggest an overestimation of agricultural CH$_{4}$ emissions by 10 to 20% in the most recent SGHGI, which is likely due to an overestimation of emissions from manure handling. Urban areas do not appear as emission hotspots in our posterior results, suggesting that leakages from natural gas distribution are only a minor source of CH$_{4}$ in Switzerland. This is consistent with rather low emissions of 8.4 Ggyr$^{-1}$ reported by the SGHGI but inconsistent with the much higher value of 32 Ggyr$^{-1}$ implied by the EDGARv4.2 inventory for this sector. Increased CH$_{4}$ emissions (up to 30% compared to the prior) were deduced for the northeastern parts of Switzerland. This feature was common to most sensitivity inversions, which is a strong indicator that it is a real feature and not an artefact of the transport model and the inversion system. However, it was not possible to assign an unambiguous source process to the region. The observations of the CarboCount-CH network provided invaluable and independent information for the validation of the national bottom-up inventory. Similar systems need to be sustained to provide independent monitoring of future climate agreements

Bayesian Classification and Regression Trees for Predicting Incidence of Cryptosporidiosis

Background Classification and regression tree (CART) models are tree-based exploratory data analysis methods which have been shown to be very useful in identifying and estimating complex hierarchical relationships in ecological and medical contexts. In this paper, a Bayesian CART model is described and applied to the problem of modelling the cryptosporidiosis infection in Queensland, Australia. Methodology/Principal Findings We compared the results of a Bayesian CART model with those obtained using a Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. Overall, the analyses indicated that the nature and magnitude of the effect estimates were similar for the two methods in this study, but the CART model more easily accommodated higher order interaction effects. Conclusions/Significance A Bayesian CART model for identification and estimation of the spatial distribution of disease risk is useful in monitoring and assessment of infectious diseases prevention and control