Feasibility study of mitigation and suppression strategies for controlling COVID-19 outbreaks in London and Wuhan

Recent outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led a global pandemic cross the world. Most countries took two main interventions: suppression like immediate lockdown cities at epicenter or mitigation that slows down but not stopping epidemic for reducing peak healthcare demand. Both strategies have their apparent merits and limitations; it becomes extremely hard to conduct one intervention as the most feasible way to all countries. Targeting at this problem, this paper conducted a feasibility study by defining a mathematical model named SEMCR, it extended traditional SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model by adding two key features: a direct connection between Exposed and Recovered populations, and separating infections into mild and critical cases. It defined parameters to classify two stages of COVID-19 control: active contain by isolation of cases and contacts, passive contain by suppression or mitigation. The model was fitted and evaluated with public dataset containing daily number of confirmed active cases including Wuhan and London during January 2020 and March 2020. The simulated results showed that 1) Immediate suppression taken in Wuhan significantly reduced the total exposed and infectious populations, but it has to be consistently maintained at least 90 days (by the middle of April 2020). Its success heavily relied on sufficiently external support from other places of China. This mode was not suitable to other countries that have no sufficient health resources. 2) In London, it is possible to take a hybrid intervention of suppression and mitigation for every 2 or 3 weeks over a longer period to balance the total infections and economic loss. While the total infectious populations in this scenario would be possibly 2 times than the one taking suppression, economic loss and recovery of London would be less affected. 3) Both in Wuhan and London cases, one important issue of fitting practical data was that there were a large portion (probably 62.9% in Wuhan) of self-recovered populations that were asymptomatic or mild symptomatic. These people might think they have been healthy at home and did not go to hospital for COVID-19 tests. Early release of intervention intensity potentially increased a risk of the second outbreak

Modeling of Human Prokineticin Receptors: Interactions with Novel Small-Molecule Binders and Potential Off-Target Drugs

The Prokineticin receptor (PKR) 1 and 2 subtypes are novel members of family A GPCRs, which exhibit an unusually high degree of sequence similarity. Prokineticins (PKs), their cognate ligands, are small secreted proteins of ∼80 amino acids; however, non-peptidic low-molecular weight antagonists have also been identified. PKs and their receptors play important roles under various physiological conditions such as maintaining circadian rhythm and pain perception, as well as regulating angiogenesis and modulating immunity. Identifying binding sites for known antagonists and for additional potential binders will facilitate studying and regulating these novel receptors. Blocking PKRs may serve as a therapeutic tool for various diseases, including acute pain, inflammation and cancer.Ligand-based pharmacophore models were derived from known antagonists, and virtual screening performed on the DrugBank dataset identified potential human PKR (hPKR) ligands with novel scaffolds. Interestingly, these included several HIV protease inhibitors for which endothelial cell dysfunction is a documented side effect. Our results suggest that the side effects might be due to inhibition of the PKR signaling pathway. Docking of known binders to a 3D homology model of hPKR1 is in agreement with the well-established canonical TM-bundle binding site of family A GPCRs. Furthermore, the docking results highlight residues that may form specific contacts with the ligands. These contacts provide structural explanation for the importance of several chemical features that were obtained from the structure-activity analysis of known binders. With the exception of a single loop residue that might be perused in the future for obtaining subtype-specific regulation, the results suggest an identical TM-bundle binding site for hPKR1 and hPKR2. In addition, analysis of the intracellular regions highlights variable regions that may provide subtype specificity

Gene Expression Profiling of Preovulatory Follicle in the Buffalo Cow: Effects of Increased IGF-I Concentration on Periovulatory Events

The preovulatory follicle in response to gonadotropin surge undergoes dramatic biochemical, and morphological changes orchestrated by expression changes in hundreds of genes. Employing well characterized bovine preovulatory follicle model, granulosa cells (GCs) and follicle wall were collected from the preovulatory follicle before, 1, 10 and 22 h post peak LH surge. Microarray analysis performed on GCs revealed that 450 and 111 genes were differentially expressed at 1 and 22 h post peak LH surge, respectively. For validation, qPCR and immunocytochemistry analyses were carried out for some of the differentially expressed genes. Expression analysis of many of these genes showed distinct expression patterns in GCs and the follicle wall. To study molecular functions and genetic networks, microarray data was analyzed using Ingenuity Pathway Analysis which revealed majority of the differentially expressed genes to cluster within processes like steroidogenesis, cell survival and cell differentiation. In the ovarian follicle, IGF-I is established to be an important regulator of the above mentioned molecular functions. Thus, further experiments were conducted to verify the effects of increased intrafollicular IGF-I levels on the expression of genes associated with the above mentioned processes. For this purpose, buffalo cows were administered with exogenous bGH to transiently increase circulating and intrafollicular concentrations of IGF-I. The results indicated that increased intrafollicular concentrations of IGF-I caused changes in expression of genes associated with steroidogenesis (StAR, SRF) and apoptosis (BCL-2, FKHR, PAWR). These results taken together suggest that onset of gonadotropin surge triggers activation of various biological pathways and that the effects of growth factors and peptides on gonadotropin actions could be examined during preovulatory follicle development