Female combatants and rebel group behaviour: Evidence from Nepal

Recent research examines when and why women join rebel groups as combatants. However, we are only beginning to understand how their presence affects rebel group behaviour and conflict dynamics more generally. I address this gap by analysing how women's participation influences two dimensions of rebel behaviour: their relationship to civilians and their fighting performance. I argue that a greater number of female rebels decreases civilian victimization, but also reduces rebel combat performance. I test these propositions using time-varying district-level data from the Nepalese civil war. The results support both expectations. These findings increase our understanding of the effects of women's participation in civil war

The colonial roots of structural coup-proofing

Colonially inherited institutions are a key determinant of the regime type and economic outcomes of postcolonial countries. This study extends this claim to civil-military relations, arguing that former French colonies are especially likely to invest in structural coup-proofing. France created paramilitary units throughout its colonies for which many natives were recruited. After independence, these paramilitaries proved persistent and were consequently used to counterbalance the regular armed forces. In contrast, countries without existing paramilitary organizations had stronger militaries which deterred and even forcibly prevented structural coup-proofing. Quantitative tests using global data on coup-proofing and a paired comparison of civil-military relations in Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana support the claim that former French colonies are more likely to heavily invest in counterbalancing. By showing how French colonial institutions provided post-independence governments with the opportunity to coup-proof, the study contributes to our understanding of civil-military relations as well as the institutional long-term effects of colonialism and foreign rule more generally. Las instituciones heredadas de las colonias son un determinante clave del tipo de régimen y de los resultados económicos de los países poscoloniales. En este estudio, se amplía esta afirmación a las relaciones cívico-militares y se argumenta que las antiguas colonias francesas son muy propensas a invertir en protección estructural contra los golpes de Estado. Francia creó unidades paramilitares en todas sus colonias para las que se reclutó a muchos nativos. Tras la independencia, estos paramilitares demostraron persistencia y, por consiguiente, se utilizaron para contrarrestar las fuerzas armadas regulares. Por el contrario, los países que no contaban con organizaciones paramilitares tenían ejércitos más fuertes que disuadían e incluso impedían por la fuerza la protección estructural contra los golpes de Estado. Las pruebas cuantitativas que utilizan datos mundiales sobre la protección contra los golpes de Estado y una comparación por pares de las relaciones cívico-militares en Costa de Marfil y Ghana respaldan la afirmación de que las antiguas colonias francesas son más propensas a invertir en contrarrestar las fuerzas. Al mostrar cómo las instituciones coloniales francesas ofrecieron a los gobiernos posteriores a la independencia la oportunidad de protegerse contra los golpes de Estado, el estudio nos ayuda a comprender las relaciones entre civiles y militares, así como los efectos institucionales a largo plazo del colonialismo y la dominación extranjera en general. Les institutions héritées des colonies sont un déterminant clé du type de régime et des résultats économiques des pays post-coloniaux. Cette étude étend cette affirmation aux relations entre civils et militaires en soutenant que les anciennes colonies françaises sont particulièrement susceptibles d’investir dans une protection structurelle contre les coups d’état. La France a créé des unités paramilitaires dans l’ensemble de ses colonies et de nombreux indigènes ont été recrutés dans celles-ci. Après l’indépendance de ces pays, ces paramilitaires se sont avérés persistants et ont par conséquent été utilisés pour contrebalancer les forces armées régulières. À l’inverse, les pays sans organizations paramilitaires existantes ont pu disposer d’armées plus fortes qui ont dissuadé et même empêché par la force l’établissement de protections structurelles contre les coups d’état. Des tests quantitatifs reposant sur des données mondiales sur la protection contre les coups d’état et une comparaison par paires des relations entre civils et militaires en Côte d’Ivoire et au Ghana soutiennent l’affirmation selon laquelle les anciennes colonies françaises sont davantage susceptibles d’investir massivement dans un contrepoids. En montrant la manière dont les institutions coloniales françaises ont doté les gouvernements post-indépendance de l’opportunité de se protéger contre les coups d’état, cette étude contribue à notre compréhension des relations entre civils et militaires ainsi que, d’une manière plus générale, des effets institutionnels à long terme du colonialisme et de la domination étrangère

Female rebels and United Nations peacekeeping deployments

How does the presence of female rebel combatants during conflict influence the likelihood of United Nations post-conflict peacekeeping deployment? While past literature on peacekeeping emphasizes the role of conflict attributes and security council interests, only few studies investigate the importance of belligerent characteristics. We argue that, because dominant gender stereotypes paint women as peaceful, female rebel combatants lead domestic and international audiences to perceive conflicts in which they fight as more severe. Given that recent UN resolutions and mission mandates align with these stereotypes, this in turn, causes the UN to intervene and deploy peacekeepers. Multivariate regression models drawing on a global sample of UN post-conflict missions provide empirical support for our hypothesis. Our findings add to the growing body of literature emphasizing the role of women in combat roles, and contribute to the discussion on the UN’s Women, Peace, and Security agenda

Examining conflict management technique sequences in international claims

This study groups third-party conflict management techniques (CMTs) into binding and non-binding approaches to examine whether and how their sequence and, in more detail, changes therein explain the outcome of international issue claims. Third parties can intervene in disputes by providing good offices or mediation; they also engage with more binding approaches such as arbitration and adjudication. While the literature has established a solid understanding of any of these third-party techniques in issue claims, it has mostly treated them in isolation from each other, thereby ignoring the persistent interdependencies that may establish a sequence of CMTs. We address this shortcoming by developing a theoretical argument for and empirically testing the impact of changes in CMT sequences on the outcome of interstate conflicts. Our results indicate that sequences involving a change in CMTs (from binding to non-binding approaches or vice versa) result in more effective outcomes. En el estudio, se agrupan las técnicas de manejo de conflictos de terceros (conflict management techniques, CMT) en enfoques vinculantes y no vinculantes a fin de analizar si su secuencia explica el resultado de los reclamos por problemas internacionales y de qué manera lo hace. Los terceros pueden intervenir en las controversias mediante la interposición de buenos oficios o la mediación y, asimismo participan con enfoques màs vinculantes, como el arbitraje y la adjudicación. Si bien en la literatura se ha establecido una sólida comprensión de cualquiera de estas técnicas de terceros en los reclamos por problemas, en la mayoría de los casos se las ha tratado de forma aislada; por lo tanto, se ignoran las persistentes interdependencias que pueden establecer una secuencia de CMT. Para abordar esta deficiencia, elaboramos un argumento teórico y ponemos a prueba empíricamente el impacto de los cambios en las secuencias de CMT sobre el resultado de los conflictos interestatales. Nuestros resultados indican que las secuencias que implican un cambio en las CMT (de enfoques vinculantes a no vinculantes o viceversa) generan resultados más efectivos. Cette étude regroupe des techniques de gestion des conflits par des tierces parties en approches contraignantes et non contraignantes afin d’examiner si et comment leur séquence explique le résultat des actions internationales engagées. Les tierces parties peuvent intervenir dans les conflits en proposant leurs bons offices ou en assurant une médiation, mais elles s’engagent également dans des approches plus contraignantes telles que l’arbitrage et le jugement. Bien que la littérature ait établi une solide compréhension de ces deux techniques de tierces parties dans les actions engagées, elle les a majoritairement traitées en les séparant l’une de l’autre, ignorant ainsi les interdépendances persistantes qui peuvent établir une séquence de techniques de gestion des conflits. Nous remédions à cette lacune en développant un argument théorique et en mettant empiriquement à l’épreuve l’impact des changements de séquences de techniques de gestion des conflits sur l’issue des conflits interétatiques. Nos conclusions indiquent que les séquences impliquant un changement de techniques de gestion des conflits (en passant d’approches contraignantes à des approches non contraignantes, ou vice versa) entraînent des issues plus efficaces

The Effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Global Armed Conflict: Early Evidence

As Covid-19 spreads around the world, international actors, including the United Nations, have called for a stop to armed conflict to facilitate efforts to fight the pandemic. At the same time, coronavirus may also trigger and intensify armed conflict due to its negative economic consequences and by offering windows of opportunity to opposition movements to attack distracted and weakened incumbents. We use real-time data on the spread of Covid-19, governmental lockdown policies, and battle events to study the causal short-term effect of the pandemic on armed conflict. Our results suggest that both the spread of Covid-19 and lockdown policies exhibit a global Null effect with considerable regional heterogeneity. Most importantly, governmental lockdowns have increased armed conflict in the Middle East. In contrast, reported combat has decreased in Southeast Asia and the Caucasus as the pandemic has spread

The Interwar Period International Trade in Arms: A New Dataset

International weapons transfers send military capabilities, make arms production economically feasible, and construct security relations. They influence buyers’ and sellers’ foreign policies, domestic politics, and military spending behavior. However, data availability has limited their study to the bipolar Cold War and unipolar post-Cold War periods. We thus introduce the Interwar Period International Trade in Arms (IPITA) data, covering dyadic transfers of small arms, light weapons, ammunition, explosives, and major conventional weapons in the years 1920–1939. The IPITA data will offer new avenues to study the drivers, dynamics, and consequences of arms transfers, both in past and future multipolar systems

Money first? Strategic and economic interests in the international arms trade network, 1920–1936

Arms transfers result from economic and political motives, with the latter often dominating the former. While this is accepted knowledge for the post-World War II period, it seems not to apply earlier. Much existing research argues that in the interwar years, weapons were traded as purely commercial goods because governments had neither the ability nor willingness to control and direct arms transfers. We reassess this idea and argue that, while formal control was largely absent, governments could steer weapons shipments nonetheless because arms producers depended on them as main customers, sales agents, and financiers of their export business. Anecdotal evidence suggests that governments actively used this influence. To test whether interwar arms transfers were the result of political or commercial interests, we use newly collected, historical data on the small arms trade and inferential network analysis methods. Our results suggest that although economic drivers existed throughout the interwar period, political considerations were especially influential when international relations were hostile at the start and end of the period. This research contributes to our understanding of international economic relations between the world wars and of the drivers of arms transfers across time

All that glitters is not gold: Relational events models with spurious events

As relational event models are an increasingly popular model for studying relational structures, the reliability of large-scale event data collection becomes more and more important. Automated or human-coded events often suffer from non-negligible false-discovery rates in event identification. And most sensor data are primarily based on actors’ spatial proximity for predefined time windows; hence, the observed events could relate either to a social relationship or random co-location. Both examples imply spurious events that may bias estimates and inference. We propose the Relational Event Model for Spurious Events (REMSE), an extension to existing approaches for interaction data. The model provides a flexible solution for modeling data while controlling for spurious events. Estimation of our model is carried out in an empirical Bayesian approach via data augmentation. Based on a simulation study, we investigate the properties of the estimation procedure. To demonstrate its usefulness in two distinct applications, we employ this model to combat events from the Syrian civil war and student co-location data. Results from the simulation and the applications identify the REMSE as a suitable approach to modeling relational event data in the presence of spurious events