Why Have Global Shark and Ray Landings Declined: Improved Management or Overfishing?

Global chondrichthyan (shark, ray, skate, and chimaera) landings, reported to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), peaked in 2003 and in the decade since have declined by almost 20%. In the FAO’s 2012 “State of the World’s Fisheries and Aquaculture” report, the authors “hoped” the reductions in landings were partially due to management implementation rather than population decline. Here, we tested their hypothesis. Post-peak chondrichthyan landings trajectories from 126 countries were modelled against seven indirect and direct fishing pressure measures and eleven measures of fisheries management performance, while accounting for ecosystem attributes. We found the recent improvement in international or national fisheries management was not yet strong enough to account for the recent decline in chondrichthyan landings. Instead, the landings declines were more closely related to fishing pressure and ecosystem attribute measures. Countries with the greatest declines had high human coastal population sizes or high shark and ray meat exports such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. While important progress has been made, country-level fisheries management measures do not yet have the strength or coverage to halt overfishing and avert population declines of chondrichthyans. Increased implementation of legally binding operational fisheries management and species-specific reporting is urgently required to avoid declines and ensure fisheries sustainability and food security

The Effects of Disturbance History on Ground-Layer Plant Community Composition in British Columbia

Plant communities are sensitive to perturbations and may display alternative recovery pathways depending on disturbance history. In sub-boreal lodgepole pine forests of central interior British Columbia, Canada, fire and logging are two widespread landscape disturbances that overlap in many regions. We asked whether cumulative, short-interval disturbance from logging and fire resulted in different ground-layer plant communities than resulted from fire alone. Using field-collected data, we compared the taxonomic composition and functional traits of 3-year old plant communities that were either harvested 6-to-13 years prior, or not harvested prior to being burned in a large stand-replacing fire. The taxonomic composition diverged between the two treatments, driven primarily by differences in a few key indicator species such as Petasites frigidus and Vaccinium membranaceum. Analysis of individual species’ morphological traits indicated that only a few species vary in size in relation to disturbance history. Our data suggest that a history of forest harvest leaves a subtle footprint on post-fire ground-layer plant communities at early stages of succession.Keywords: multiple disturbance effects, wildfire, understory species composition, forest harvest, clearcut logging, plant functional traits, disturbance histor

Contemporary visions of progress in ecology and thoughts for the future

Although ecological research is progressing rapidly, the answers to certain key questions continue to elude us. This paper considers several of the contemporary challenges facing ecology. (1) Terminology is voluminous and often poorly defined, resulting in inefficient communication. (2) The concept of scale affects our inferences about system structure and function, requiring us to continue an almost heuristic investigation of breaks, domains, and integration. New tools that more explicitly incorporate scalar issues will need to be developed for progress to take place in the field of ecology. (3) Increasingly, it is expected that applied questions will be solved in less than a year. This demand for solutions from ecologists often produces short-term and inadequate responses. (4) How can ecologists improve communication between subdisciplines, with undergraduate students, and with the public? How will ecology be done in the future, and by whom? We provide some background to these observations and questions, and offer some potential solutions from the viewpoint of young practicing ecologists

Insights from wildfire science: A resource for fire policy discussions

Record blazes swept across parts of the US in 2015, burning more than 10 million acres. The four biggest fire seasons since 1960 have all occurred in the last 10 years, leading to fears of a ‘new normal’ for wildfire. Fire fighters and forest managers are overwhelmed, and it is clear that the policy and management approaches of the past will not suffice under this new era of western wildfires. In recent decades, state and federal policymakers, tribes, and others are confronting longer fire seasons (Jolly et al. 2015), more large fires (Dennison et al. 2014), a tripling of homes burned, and a doubling of firefighter deaths (Rasker 2015). Federal agencies now spend $2 to$3 billion annually fighting fires (and in the case of the US Forest Service, over 50% of their budget), and the total cost to society may be up to 30 times more than the direct cost of firefighting. If we want to contain these costs and reduce risks to communities, economies, and natural systems, we can draw on the best available science when designing fire management strategies, as called for in the recent federal report on Wildland Fire Science and Technology. Here, we highlight key science insights that can contribute to the public discourse on wildfire policy and associated management of forests, woodlands, and shrublands. This information is fundamental to decisions that will promote resilient communities and landscapes facing more fire in the future

Contributions of Fire Refugia to Resilient Ponderosa Pine and Dry Mixed‐Conifer Forest Landscapes

Altered fire regimes can drive major and enduring compositional shifts or losses of forest ecosystems. In western North America, ponderosa pine and dry mixed‐conifer forest types appear increasingly vulnerable to uncharacteristically extensive, high‐severity wildfire. However, unburned or only lightly impacted forest stands that persist within burn mosaics—termed fire refugia—may serve as tree seed sources and promote landscape recovery. We sampled tree regeneration along gradients of fire refugia proximity and density at 686 sites within the perimeters of 12 large wildfires that occurred between 2000 and 2005 in the interior western United States. We used generalized linear mixed‐effects models to elucidate statistical relationships between tree regeneration and refugia pattern, including a new metric that incorporates patch proximity and proportional abundance. These relationships were then used to develop a spatially explicit landscape simulation model. We found that regeneration by ponderosa pine and obligate‐seeding mixed‐conifer tree species assemblages was strongly and positively predicted by refugia proximity and density. Simulation models revealed that for any given proportion of the landscape occupied by refugia, small patches produced greater landscape recovery than large patches. These results highlight the disproportionate importance of small, isolated islands of surviving trees, which may not be detectable with coarse‐scale satellite imagery. Findings also illustrate the interplay between patch‐scale resistance and landscape‐scale resilience: Disturbance‐resistant settings (fire refugia) can entrain resilience (forest regeneration) across the burn matrix. Implications and applications for land managers and conservation practitioners include strategies for the promotion and maintenance of fire refugia as components of resilient forest landscapes

Forest fire management, climate change, and the risk of catastrophic carbon losses

Approaches to management of fireprone forests are undergoing rapid change, driven by recognition that technological attempts to subdue fire at large scales (fire suppression) are ecologically and economically unsustainable. However, our current framework for intervention excludes the full scope of the fire management problem within the broader context of fire−vegetation−climate interactions. Climate change may already be causing unprecedented fire activity, and even if current fires are within the historical range of variability, models predict that current fire management problems will be compounded by more frequent extreme fire-conducive weather conditions (eg Fried et al. 2004)

Biogeographic patterns of daily wildfire spread and extremes across North America

IntroductionClimate change is predicted to increase the frequency of extreme single-day fire spread events, with major ecological and social implications. In contrast with well-documented spatio-temporal patterns of wildfire ignitions and perimeters, daily progression remains poorly understood across continental spatial scales, particularly for extreme single-day events (“blow ups”). Here, we characterize daily wildfire spread across North America, including occurrence of extreme single-day events, duration and seasonality of fire and extremes, and ecoregional climatic niches of fire in terms of Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) and Climatic Water Deficit (CWD) annual climate normals.MethodsRemotely sensed daily progression of 9,636 wildfires ≥400 ha was used to characterize ecoregional patterns of fire growth, extreme single-day events, duration, and seasonality. To explore occurrence, extent, and impacts of single-day extremes among ecoregions, we considered complementary ecoregional and continental extreme thresholds (Ecoregional or Continental Mean Daily Area Burned + 2SD). Ecoregional spread rates were regressed against AET and CWD to explore climatic influence on spread.ResultsWe found three-fold differences in mean Daily Area Burned among 10 North American ecoregions, ranging from 260 ha day−1 in the Marine West Coast Forests to 751 ha day−1 in Mediterranean California. Ecoregional extreme thresholds ranged from 3,829 ha day−1 to 16,626 ha day−1, relative to a continental threshold of 7,173 ha day−1. The ~3% of events classified as extreme cumulatively account for 16–55% of total area burned among ecoregions. We observed four-fold differences in mean fire duration, ranging from 2.7 days in the Great Plains to 10.5 days in Northwestern Forested Mountains. Regions with shorter fire durations also had greater daily area burned, suggesting a paradigm of fast-growing short-duration fires in some regions and slow-growing long-duration fires elsewhere. CWD had a weak positive relationship with spread rate and extreme thresholds, and there was no pattern for AET.DiscussionRegions with shorter fire durations had greater daily area burned, suggesting a paradigm of fast-growing short-duration fires in some regions and slow-growing long-duration fires elsewhere. Although climatic conditions can set the stage for ignition and influence vegetation and fuels, finer-scale mechanisms likely drive variation in daily spread. Daily fire progression offers valuable insights into the regional and seasonal distributions of extreme single-day spread events, and how these events shape net fire effects

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning

Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration. © 2023 the Author(s)

Dead forests burning: the influence of beetle outbreaks on fire severity and legacy structure in sub‐boreal forests

Abstract Recent regional mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks have generated unprecedented tree mortality across the fire‐prone landscapes of western North American forests and could potentially modify fire severity and postfire ecological effects. In 2012, 2013, and 2014, three fires burned through high mortality, gray‐phase lodgepole pine‐dominated forests in the plateau regions of central interior British Columbia, Canada, providing an opportunity to test for interactions between MPB outbreaks and wildfires. We inventoried 63 plots that spanned gradients of outbreak severity, fire severity, and burning conditions in a wilderness setting. Our objective was to evaluate the influence of outbreak severity on fire severity by assessing typical first‐order fire effects as well as legacy structure related to the consumption of woody biomass on snags/trees. We found no evidence of a relationship between outbreak severity and fire severity for six of seven first‐order fire effects, with the exception of deep charring. We found evidence that legacy structure in the form of consumed branch structure and deep char development had greater odds of occurrence on MPB‐killed snags compared to trees killed during wildfire. Our results indicate two key findings. First, fire severity as it relates to most first‐order fire effects measures is not influenced by outbreak severity, instead it is more strongly influenced by the interaction of fuels, weather, and topography during fire events. Second, our results highlight how the interaction between outbreak severity and fire severity alters postfire structural legacies and their functional attributes, which could have important ecosystem implications