Karpography: a generic concept of quality for chain analysis and knowledge transfer in supply chains

As with other areas of science, supply chain analysis suffers from the fact that practitioners of its different component disciplines often find it exchange results and methods of analysis. For fresh produce supply chains a key issue is how to unite the elegant mathematical work on the physiology of quality change with the more qualitative methods of social science that are applied to the analysis supply chain management. This paper explores the possibility of utilising approaches which are widely used in demography to unify concepts of quality modelling and supply chain efficiency in the fresh produce sector. A key feature of demographic (or karpographic) models is that they use the average properties of individuals to model the behaviour of cohorts (or batches) and thus have a direct means of including biological variance within their scope. We illustrate the potential of matrix projection models to provide a simple way to unite mathematical analyses of keeping quality and subjective and qualitative analyses of supply chain efficiency. Among other results, the paper demonstrates a rational basis for the assumption, which has been adopted in recent policy changes to the EU food and agriculture policy, that short (or local) supply chains are, ceterus paribus, superior to longer ones. The analytical approach suggested spans the gap between theoretical modelling and knowledge transfer in a single step and requires no more to allow parameterisation than the elicitation of subjective probability estimates from supply chain participants on the transition of produce from one quality class to another.Quality, modelling, matrix model, variance, supply chain, probability, Agribusiness,

A diffusion model for the adoption of agricultural innovations in structured adopting populations

We introduce a new model for examining the dynamics of uptake of technological innovations in agricultural systems, using the adoption of zero-till wheat in the rice-wheat system in Haryana state, India, as a case study. A new equation is derived which describes the dynamics of adoption over time and takes into account the effect of aggregation (e.g. on a spatial and/or cultural basis) in the adopting population on the rate of adoption. The model extends previous phenomenological models by removing the assumption of homogeneity in the non-adopting fraction of the population. We show how factors affecting the per capita rate of adoption can be captured using cognitive mapping and simulate the dynamics of the adoption process.Bass curve, adoption, innovation, Crop Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Hierarchical spatial models for predicting tree species assemblages across large domains

Spatially explicit data layers of tree species assemblages, referred to as forest types or forest type groups, are a key component in large-scale assessments of forest sustainability, biodiversity, timber biomass, carbon sinks and forest health monitoring. This paper explores the utility of coupling georeferenced national forest inventory (NFI) data with readily available and spatially complete environmental predictor variables through spatially-varying multinomial logistic regression models to predict forest type groups across large forested landscapes. These models exploit underlying spatial associations within the NFI plot array and the spatially-varying impact of predictor variables to improve the accuracy of forest type group predictions. The richness of these models incurs onerous computational burdens and we discuss dimension reducing spatial processes that retain the richness in modeling. We illustrate using NFI data from Michigan, USA, where we provide a comprehensive analysis of this large study area and demonstrate improved prediction with associated measures of uncertainty.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS250 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Four Scottish indulgences at Sens

English interest in the great Cistercian abbey of Pontigny was stimulated by the exiles there of two archbishops of Canterbury, Thomas Becket and Stephen Langton.1 As archbishops of Canterbury, Langton and Edmund of Abingdon made gifts to Pontigny abbey in consideration of the welcome given to Becket.2 Edmund did not die at Pontigny, but was a confrater of the community, and the abbot claimed the body, asserting that Edmund had expressed a wish to be buried there. The process of canonisation was rapid.3 After Edmund's canonisation, Henry III sent a chasuble and a chalice for the first celebration of the feast, and granted money to maintain four candles round the saint's shrine.4 In 1254, en route from Gascony to meet Louis IX in Chartres and Paris,5 Henry visited Pontigny, as his brother Richard of Cornwall, who seems to have pressed for canonisation, had done in 1247.6 Archbishop Boniface of Canterbury ordered the celebration of the feast to be observed throughout his province.7 Pope Alexander IV granted a dispensation to allow Englishwomen to enter the precinct of Pontigny abbey on the feast of the translation of the relics of St Edmund8 (women were normally forbidden to enter a Cistercian monastery). Matthew Paris, the greatest English chronicler of the age, wrote a life of the saint.9 English interest continued into the fourteenth century. In 1331 an English priest was given a licence to visit the shrine,10 but it seems likely that the Hundred Years’ War made pilgrimage to Pontigny difficult.11 The indulgences preserved by the abbey reveal an interest in the shrine throughout the Western Church, granted as they were by prelates from Tortosa to Livonia and Estonia, and from Messina to Lübeck.1

Idealism, Pragmatism, and Student Motivation: Implementing Grading Systems, Practices, and Policies in Context

This thesis argues for the implementation of contextually-appropriate policies and practices that not only clarify the meaning of grades for teachers, parents, and students, but also give students more autonomy and improve their intrinsic motivation to learn. The literature about motivation reveals that the conventional wisdom—the use of contingent rewards—works when students are asked to complete simple, algorithmic tasks such as turning in assignments on time, but not when they\u27re asked to complete complex, heuristic tasks such as those articulated by the Common Core State Standards. The literature about grading and grading systems reveals similarly misleading conventional wisdom: Educators often assume there is a shared understanding of what grades mean, but there is not. Varied purposes lead teachers to implement varied policies and practices that have a significant impact on how students perceive learning and how they complete their assignments. The final chapter of this thesis offers contextually-appropriate recommendations for one rural, public high school making the transition to the standards-based grading system. Though there is no research arguing that this system is better than another, an examination of the school\u27s context suggests this system—and the recommended purpose, policies, and practices that align with it—will clearly communicate the meaning of grades, improve students\u27 autonomy, and increase their intrinsic motivation to learn

The impact of Kentucky’s medicaid expansion on adult coverage and diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus and diabetic peripheral neuropathy, the use of antihyperglycemics and the role of social determinants of health 2011-2018.

Objectives: This study analyzed the impact of Medicaid expansion in Kentucky on coverage of adults aged 19-64 and the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) and the use of antidiabetic medications or insulin (antihyperglycemics) for T2DM, controlling for Social Determinants of Health (SDOH). Method: This study assembled ICD-based claims and prescription drug NDC claims from all adult residents of Kentucky enrolled in Medicaid from 2011 to 2018. Three-digit zip code (Zip-3) data was appended to each case from the American Community Survey to provide SDOH variables. Tests performed included ANOVA, decision trees, varimax rotated factor analysis (VRF), logistic regression (LR) and ordinary least squares regression (OLS). Results: Medicaid expansion significantly (p=0.0001) increased healthcare coverage 408,567 adults aged 19-64 from 2013 to 2018. Twelve months of continuous enrollment increased from 63.3% in 2013 to 81.5% of beneficiaries by 2018. Expansion extended coverage to more adults with T2DM and DPN. All 27 Zip-3 areas had increases, but differ in coverage increases, T2DM rates, and DPN rates pre- and post- Medicaid expansion (p=0.0001). SDOH factors analyzed at the Zip-3 level have 82% explanatory power (Adjusted R Square = 0.82) for coverage changes, 90% explanatory power (Adjusted R Square = 0.90) for T2DM prevalence in 2018 and 87% explanatory power (Adjusted R Square = 0.87) for DPN prevalence in 2018. Treatment of T2DM patients aged 19-64 on Medicaid with antihyperglycemics has substantially improved post-Medicaid expansion in Kentucky with a significant decrease (p=0.0001) in antihyperglycemic non-use among T2DM adults aged 19-64 from 58.4% in 2014 to 42.3% in 2015. However, as of 2018, 39% of beneficiaries are still not receiving or refusing antihyperglycemics for treating T2DM. Conclusions: In the present investigation Medicaid expansion in Kentucky increased healthcare coverage and continuous enrollment for adults 19-64. Expansion covered more adults with T2DM and DPN. SDOH factors have high explanatory power for coverage, T2DM and DPN prevalence in 2018 when applied at the Zip-3 level, indicating Medicaid expansion improved population health in even the most deprived areas of Kentucky. The use of antihyperglycemics has improved