Explaining index based livestock insurance to pastoralists

Livestock production in arid and semi-arid rangelands is a risky enterprise. Covariate risk of catastrophic livestock loss due to drought is the most critical uninsured risk facing livestock producers. These losses can lead to persistent poverty. We are trying to design an index based livestock insurance (IBLI) program as a viable means to help pastoralists in northern Kenya manage such covariate risk of livestock losses due to drought. A predicted livestock mortality index – established from a statistical relationship between satellite-generated vegetation imagery and historical records of community level livestock losses – represents an objectively, cost effectively measured and non-human manipulable index that triggers insurance payout. The insurance is offered by private insurance companies. The advantages of reduced transaction costs and asymmetric information problems, however, come at the cost of increased basis risk, which refers to the imperfect correlation between an insured‟s loss experience and the index. We have developed a game that explains to pastoralists how such an insurance product could work. We built in the game both covariate and idiosyncratic shocks, and use a subsistence constraint to generate bifurcating asset dynamics, observed empirically in the targeted communities. This paper describes how the game was designed, how it was used in the field, and presents findings on how individuals played the game. The paper concludes by discussing how these findings are being used in the design and broader extension of the index based insurance product

Insuring against drought‐related livestock mortality: Piloting index based livestock insurance in northern Kenya

Climate related shocks are among the leading cause of production and efficiency losses in smallholder crop and livestock production in rural Africa. Consequently, the identification of tools to help manage the risks associated with climactic extremities is increasingly considered to be amongst the key pillars of any agenda to enhance agricultural growth and welfare in rural Africa. This paper describes the application of a promising innovation in insurance design – index‐based insurance – that seeks to bring the benefits of formal insurance to help manage the weather‐related risks faced by rural crop and livestock producers in low‐income countries. In particular, we highlight the research and development agenda of a comprehensive effort to design commercially viable index‐based livestock insurance aimed at protecting the pastoral populations of Northern Kenya from the considerable drought‐related livestock mortality risk that they face. Detailing the conditions that make the pastoral economy in Northern Kenya an ideal candidate for the provision of index‐based insurance products, the paper describes the contract design, defines its structure, offers analysis that indicates a high likelihood of commercial sustainability among the target market and describes the process of implementation leading up to the launch of a pilot in Marsabit district of Northern Kenya in early 2010

Using Disjoint Reachability for Parallelization

Abstract. We present a disjoint reachability analysis for Java. Our analysis com-putes extended points-to graphs annotated with reachability states. Each heap node is annotated with a set of reachability states that abstract the reachability of objects represented by the node. The analysis also includes a global pruning step which analyzes a reachability graph to prune imprecise reachability states that cannot be removed with local reasoning alone. We have implemented the analysis and used it to parallelize 9 benchmarks. Our evaluation shows the anal-ysis results are sufficiently precise to parallelize our benchmarks and achieve an average speedup of 16.9×.

Ocean Bottom Seismometer Augmentation in the North Pacific (OBSANP) - cruise report

The Ocean Bottom Seismometer Augmentation in the North Pacific Experiment (OBSANP, June-July, 2013, R/V Melville) addresses the coherence and depth dependence of deep-water ambient noise and signals. During the 2004 NPAL Experiment in the North Pacific Ocean, in addition to predicted ocean acoustic arrivals and deep shadow zone arrivals, we observed "deep seafloor arrivals" (DSFA) that were dominant on the seafloor Ocean Bottom Seismometer (OBS) (at about 5000m depth) but were absent or very weak on the Distributed Vertical Line Array (DVLA) (above 4250m depth). At least a subset of these arrivals correspond to bottomdiffracted surface-reflected (BDSR) paths from an out-of-plane seamount. BDSR arrivals are present throughout the water column, but at depths above the conjugate depth are obscured by ambient noise and PE predicted arrivals. On the 2004 NPAL/LOAPEX experiment BDSR paths yielded the largest amplitude seafloor arrivals for ranges from 500 to 3200km. The OBSANP experiment tests the hypothesis that BDSR paths contribute to the arrival structure on the deep seafloor even at short ranges (from near zero to 4-1/2CZ). The OBSANP cruise had three major research goals: a) identification and analysis of DSFA and BDSR arrivals occurring at short (1/2CZ) ranges in the 50 to 400Hz band, b) analysis of deep sea ambient noise in the band 0.03 to 80Hz, and c) analysis of the frequency dependence of BR and SRBR paths. On OBSANP we deployed a 32 element VLA from 12 to 1000m above the seafloor, eight short-period OBSs and four long-period OBSs and carried out a 15day transmission program using a J15-3 acoustic source.Funding was provided by the Office of Naval Research under contract #'s N00014-10-1-0987 and N00014-10-1-051

The Impact of Business Intelligence Systems on Profitability and Risks of Firms

202105 bcvcAccepted ManuscriptRGC155009/15BEarly releas

Operator precedence for data-dependent grammars

Constructing parsers based on declarative specification of operator precedence is a very old research topic, and there are various existing approaches. However, these approaches are either tied to a particular parsing technique, or cannot deal with all corner cases found in programming languages. In this paper we present an implementation of declarative specification of operator precedence for general parsing that (1) is independent of the underlying parsing algorithm, (2) does not require any grammar transformation that increases the size of the grammar, (3) preserves the shape of parse trees of the original, natural grammar, and (4) can deal with intricate cases of operator precedence found in functional programming languages such as OCaml. Our new approach to operator precedence is formulated using data-dependent grammars, which extend context-free grammars with arbitrary computation, variable binding and constraints. We implemented our approach using Iguana, a data-dependent parsing framework, and evaluated it by parsing Java and OCaml source files. The results show that our approach is practical for parsing programming languages with complicated operator precedence rules

The Vehicle, November 1960, Vol. 3 no. 1

CONTENTS To the ReaderStaffpage 2 N’ = N : 1Donald C. Blairpage 3 ConsistencyDonald C. Blairpage 3 Unto MeLinda Kay Campbellpage 4 The Meek Shall InheritE. J. B. page 5 The Infinite QuestLarry W. Dudleypage 6 Dreamer’s DawnMike Hindmanpage 7 BirthNancy Coepage 7 The Lost DutchmanDonald C. Blairpage 8 W. E. Noonan IRobert S. Hodgepage 8 A Soldier’s OrdealDonald E. Shephardsonpage 9 Personal PossessionMary Beilpage 11 Thine The GloryDonald C. Blairpage 12 The ThornJan Holstlawpage 13 A Lord’s Day MorningLinda Campbellpage 14 Observations of a 6-Year-OldTom McPeakpage 15 Jewels of TimeJudith Jerintspage 16 LavenderE. J. B. page 16https://thekeep.eiu.edu/vehicle/1008/thumbnail.jp