The Quest for Purchasing Power Parity with a Series-specific Unit Root Test Using Panel Data

A unit root testing procedure is presented that exploits the well-established power advantages of panel estimation while rectifying a deficiency in other panel unit root tests. This procedure, which takes into account contemporaneous cross-correlation and heterogeneous serial correlation of the regression residuals, allows determination of which members of the panel reject the null hypothesis of a unit root and which do not. Applying the procedure to real exchange rates yields results that are in broad agreement with those obtained from single-equation unit root tests. There is little evidence that a unit root can be rejected in dollar-based real exchange rates for the floating rate period.Marketing,

Monetary policy and stability during six periods in US economic history: 1959–2008: a novel, nonlinear monetary policy rule

We investigate the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board during six periods in US economic history 1959–2008. In particular, we examine the Fed’s response to changes in three guiding variables: inflation, π, unemployment, U, and industrial production, y, during periods with low and high economic stability. We identify separate responses for the Fed’s change in interest rate depending upon (i) the current rate, FF, and the guiding variables’ level below or above their average values and (ii) recent movements in inflation and unemployment. The change in rate, FF, can then be calculated. We identify policies that both increased and decreased economic stability

Cointegration modeling of fertility in the United States

This paper presents estimates of a multiple time series model of fertility, female labor force participation, women's wages, and the relative cohort size of younger to older adult males. Cointegration methods permit modeling of these nonstationary variables, yielding estimates of the long-run relation among the variables, and the dynamic response of each variable to displacements from the steady state. The estimated steady state relation between fertility and the other variables is consistent with economic models of fertility, with fertility negatively related to female wages and male relative cohort size. Fertility responds to cohort size in a manner that is consistent with Easterlin's relative income model of household behavior. Finally, both female labor market variables adjust significantly to departures from the steady state relation, implying that they cannot be treated as exogenous in time series models of fertility.

Panel Data Unit Roots Tests Using Various Estimation Methods

In this paper, the performances of panel data unit root tests are considered and various estimation methods under different properties of data are compared. It is shown that weighted symmetric estimation increases the power of the tests without adversely affecting the size, for most data properties and most panels of dimensions N and T. The presence of serial correlation and cross-sectional correlation does not reduce the power of the tests significantly

Autoregressive Transformations In Cointegrated Regressions

Standard autocorrelation corrections applied to cointegrating regressions can lead to erroneous first-differencing. Such outcomes are shown to be possible under a range of environments, including cases with autocorrelation coefficients substantially less than 1. First-differencing of a cointegrating regression results in estimates that may bear little relation to the parameters in the original untransformed relation, resulting in misinterpretation of the parameter estimates. These results are proved analytically and demonstrated with simulations and empirical examples. © 1997 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

New unit root tests of the Nelson-Plosser data

Weighted symmetric and GLS tests for unit roots are applied to the fourteen time series tested by Nelson and Plosser in 1982. Due to the greater power of these two tests, unit roots are rejected for three to five of the series.

The Returns to Education in Thailand: A Pseudo-Panel Approach

Summary This study employs the pseudo-panel approach for estimating returns to education in Thailand, while treating the endogeneity bias common to estimates from data on individuals. Pseudo-panel data are constructed from repeated cross-sections of Thailand's National Labor Force Surveys of workers born during 1946-67. Estimates show a downward bias of the returns to education in least squares regressions with individual data, a result confirmed with instrumental variable estimation. The overall rate of return is between 14% and 16%. Females have higher returns than males, and workers in urban areas have higher returns than those in rural areas.returns to education pseudo-panel synthetic cohort IV estimators Asia Thailand

Does employees’ compensation vary with corporate profit?

We find that from about 1965 to 1983 US employees’ compensation, EC, relative to corporate profit, CP, increases in the long run, and from 1984 to 2013 the compensation decreases relative to profit to about half its 1983 value. The first period includes “US peacetime inflation”, 1970 -78 and the last period includes “The Great moderation”, 1985 – 1997. With the exception of a short period 1998 -2003, the dominant pattern is that corporate profit and employees’ compensation increase and decrease in concert, but compensation lags profit with about 10 quarters. From 1965 to present, cycle times for the EC-CP pair generally decreases from about 60 quarters to about 40 quarters