Nuclear matter to strange matter transition in holographic QCD

We construct a simple holographic QCD model to study nuclear matter to strange matter transition. The interaction of dense medium and hadrons is taken care of by imposing the force balancing condition for stable D4/D6/D6 configuration. By considering the intermediate and light flavor branes interacting with baryon vertex homogeneously distributed along R^3 space and requesting the energy minimization, we find that there is a well defined transition density as a function of current quark mass. We also find that as density goes up very high, intermediate (or heavy) and light quarks populate equally as expected from the Pauli principle. In this sense, the effect of the Pauli principle is realized as dynamics of D-branes.Comment: 13 pages, 14 figure

Dual Functions of ASCIZ in the DNA Base Damage Response and Pulmonary Organogenesis

Zn2+-finger proteins comprise one of the largest protein superfamilies with diverse biological functions. The ATM substrate Chk2-interacting Zn2+-finger protein (ASCIZ; also known as ATMIN and ZNF822) was originally linked to functions in the DNA base damage response and has also been proposed to be an essential cofactor of the ATM kinase. Here we show that absence of ASCIZ leads to p53-independent late-embryonic lethality in mice. Asciz-deficient primary fibroblasts exhibit increased sensitivity to DNA base damaging agents MMS and H2O2, but Asciz deletion or knock-down does not affect ATM levels and activation in mouse, chicken, or human cells. Unexpectedly, Asciz-deficient embryos also exhibit severe respiratory tract defects with complete pulmonary agenesis and severe tracheal atresia. Nkx2.1-expressing respiratory precursors are still specified in the absence of ASCIZ, but fail to segregate properly within the ventral foregut, and as a consequence lung buds never form and separation of the trachea from the oesophagus stalls early. Comparison of phenotypes suggests that ASCIZ functions between Wnt2-2b/ß-catenin and FGF10/FGF-receptor 2b signaling pathways in the mesodermal/endodermal crosstalk regulating early respiratory development. We also find that ASCIZ can activate expression of reporter genes via its SQ/TQ-cluster domain in vitro, suggesting that it may exert its developmental functions as a transcription factor. Altogether, the data indicate that, in addition to its role in the DNA base damage response, ASCIZ has separate developmental functions as an essential regulator of respiratory organogenesis

Standards and Practices for Forecasting

One hundred and thirty-nine principles are used to summarize knowledge about forecasting. They cover formulating a problem, obtaining information about it, selecting and applying methods, evaluating methods, and using forecasts. Each principle is described along with its purpose, the conditions under which it is relevant, and the strength and sources of evidence. A checklist of principles is provided to assist in auditing the forecasting process. An audit can help one to find ways to improve the forecasting process and to avoid legal liability for poor forecasting

Improving reliability of judgmental forecasts

All judgmental forecasts will be affected by the inherent unreliability, or inconsistency, of the judgment process. Psychologists have studied this problem extensively, but forecasters rarely address it. Researchers and theorists describe two types of unreliability that can reduce the accuracy of judgmental forecasts: (1) unreliability of information acquisition, and (2) unreliability of information processing. Studies indicate that judgments are less reliable when the task is more complex; when the environment is more uncertain; when the acquisition of information relies on perception, pattern recognition, or memory; and when people use intuition instead of analysis. Five principles can improve reliability in judgmental forecasting: 1. Organize and present information in a form that clearly emphasizes relevant information. 2. Limit the amount of information used in judgmental forecasting. Use a small number of really important cues. 3. Use mechanical methods to process infomation. 4. Combine several forecasts. 5. Require justification of forecasts

Econometric Forecasting

Several principles are useful for econometric forecasters: keep the model simple, use all the data you can get, and use theory (not the data) as a guide to selecting causal variables. But theory gives little guidance on dynamics, that is, on which lagged values of the selected variables to use. Early econometric models failed in comparison with extrapolative methods because they paid too little attention to dynamic structure. In a fairly simple way, the vector autoregression (VAR) approach that first appeared in the 1980s resolved the problem by shifting emphasis towards dynamics and away from collecting many causal variables. The VAR approach also resolves the question of how to make long-term forecasts where the causal variables themselves must be forecast. When the analyst does not need to forecast causal variables or can use other sources, he or she can use a single equation with the same dynamic structure. Ordinary least squares is a perfectly adequate estimation method. Evidence supports estimating the initial equation in levels, whether the variables are stationary or not. We recommend a general-to-specific model-building strategy: start with a large number of lags in the initial estimation, although simplifying by reducing the number of lags pays off. Evidence on the value of further simplification is mixed. If cointegration among variables, then error-correction models (ECMs) will do worse than equations in levels. But ECMs are only sometimes an improvement eve