Construct-level predictive validity of educational attainment and intellectual aptitude tests in medical student selection: meta-regression of six UK longitudinal studies

Background: Measures used for medical student selection should predict future performance during training. A problem for any selection study is that predictor-outcome correlations are known only in those who have been selected, whereas selectors need to know how measures would predict in the entire pool of applicants. That problem of interpretation can be solved by calculating construct-level predictive validity, an estimate of true predictor-outcome correlation across the range of applicant abilities. Methods: Construct-level predictive validities were calculated in six cohort studies of medical student selection and training (student entry, 1972 to 2009) for a range of predictors, including A-levels, General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs)/O-levels, and aptitude tests (AH5 and UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT)). Outcomes included undergraduate basic medical science and finals assessments, as well as postgraduate measures of Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom (MRCP(UK)) performance and entry in the Specialist Register. Construct-level predictive validity was calculated with the method of Hunter, Schmidt and Le (2006), adapted to correct for right-censorship of examination results due to grade inflation. Results: Meta-regression analyzed 57 separate predictor-outcome correlations (POCs) and construct-level predictive validities (CLPVs). Mean CLPVs are substantially higher (.450) than mean POCs (.171). Mean CLPVs for first-year examinations, were high for A-levels (.809; CI: .501 to .935), and lower for GCSEs/O-levels (.332; CI: .024 to .583) and UKCAT (mean = .245; CI: .207 to .276). A-levels had higher CLPVs for all undergraduate and postgraduate assessments than did GCSEs/O-levels and intellectual aptitude tests. CLPVs of educational attainment measures decline somewhat during training, but continue to predict postgraduate performance. Intellectual aptitude tests have lower CLPVs than A-levels or GCSEs/O-levels. Conclusions: Educational attainment has strong CLPVs for undergraduate and postgraduate performance, accounting for perhaps 65% of true variance in first year performance. Such CLPVs justify the use of educational attainment measure in selection, but also raise a key theoretical question concerning the remaining 35% of variance (and measurement error, range restriction and right-censorship have been taken into account). Just as in astrophysics, ‘dark matter’ and ‘dark energy’ are posited to balance various theoretical equations, so medical student selection must also have its ‘dark variance’, whose nature is not yet properly characterized, but explains a third of the variation in performance during training. Some variance probably relates to factors which are unpredictable at selection, such as illness or other life events, but some is probably also associated with factors such as personality, motivation or study skills

A framework for future training in marine and coastal protected area management

Training, Protected areas, Marine environment, Coastal zone management

Suicide and self-harm in Britain: researching risk and resilience using UK surveys

Aim The main aim of this study was to raise awareness of surveys that could be used to inform self-harm and suicide prevention work. We asked: What UK survey datasets are available for research? What aspects of people’s lives are associated with self-harm and attempted suicide? How do statistical findings resonate with people’s lived experience? What implications do they see? Findings Survey analyses revealed that risk factors for self-harm are wide ranging and include: Mental health Physical health and health behaviours Social relationships Stressful events Employment and financial circumstances Identity and demographics Many different factors are independently associated with self-harm. There is a dose relationship, with more exposure to a factor linked with increased risk. Risks are cumulative that is, exposure to multiple factors is associated with greater risk. Through facilitated consultation, men with lived experience, bereaved family members, and practitioners identified recommendations for responding to suicidal distress in men. These related to the following three main areas: 1. Recognising need: who is ‘ill enough’? Permission - men said that they often did not know they were entitled to help Ask - people who outwardly appear to be functioning may not be Persistence - ask and offer help more than once. 2. Facilitating access: right words, time and place What is available - support is needed with ongoing stress as well as for crises Find the words - men wanted examples of how to ask for help Allow time - employers expect recovery to be swift, some men felt rushed to come off medications or were discharged from services they still needed. 3. Adjusting delivery: equal engagement Power - some were uncomfortable with service dynamics, preferring peer support Every service contact counts - negative contacts had particular impact Safe spaces - may be different for men and women. Methods There were three strands of work: Secondary analysis of nine survey series, spanning more than twenty years Linkage of 144,000 survey participants to information on whether they were alive in 2013 and whether they had taken their own life Facilitated consultation, through depth interviews with people with lived experience

Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?

Differences in the duration of interglacials have long been apparent in palaeoclimate records of the Late and Middle Pleistocene. However, a systematic evaluation of such differences has been hampered by the lack of a metric that can be applied consistently through time and by difficulties in separating the local from the global component in various proxies. This, in turn, means that a theoretical framework with predictive power for interglacial duration has remained elusive. Here we propose that the interval between the terminal oscillation of the bipolar seesaw and three thousand years (kyr) before its first major reactivation provides an estimate that approximates the length of the sea-level highstand, a measure of interglacial duration. We apply this concept to interglacials of the last 800 kyr by using a recently-constructed record of interhemispheric variability. The onset of interglacials occurs within 2 kyr of the boreal summer insolation maximum/precession minimum and is consistent with the canonical view of Milankovitch forcing pacing the broad timing of interglacials. Glacial inception always takes place when obliquity is decreasing and never after the obliquity minimum. The phasing of precession and obliquity appears to influence the persistence of interglacial conditions over one or two insolation peaks, leading to shorter (~ 13 kyr) and longer (~ 28 kyr) interglacials. Glacial inception occurs approximately 10 kyr after peak interglacial conditions in temperature and CO2, representing a characteristic timescale of interglacial decline. Second-order differences in duration may be a function of stochasticity in the climate system, or small variations in background climate state and the magnitude of feedbacks and mechanisms contributing to glacial inception, and as such, difficult to predict. On the other hand, the broad duration of an interglacial may be determined by the phasing of astronomical parameters and the history of insolation, rather than the instantaneous forcing strength at inception

Inequalities in Health and Service Use among People with Borderline Intellectual Impairment

This report, produced in collaboration with Professor Angela Hassiotis and others, sets out the extent to which people with borderline intellectual impairment face inequalities in health and use of services compared with the rest of the population, and seeks to improve awareness of these inequalities. Findings - Borderline intellectual impairment is common, affecting at least one adult in ten in England. The term is used here to refer to people with good verbal skills and living in private households, but who may experience cognitive impairments. - The findings in this report are consistent with previous research: people with borderline intellectual impairment are a disadvantaged group and their needs are not well understood. - Such adults face high levels of poor mental health, poorer general health, and many limitations in their daily lives. - Their level of use of mental health treatment and services does not appear to be commensurate with their higher level of need. This indicates that they are underserved compared with the rest of the population. - This may be due to a lack of professional awareness of their needs, to services not adapting enough to meet those needs, or to difficulties the individual faces in seeking treatment and support. - Adults with borderline intellectual impairment constitute key users of primary and secondary health care, and employment, education and welfare support. Improving awareness of the needs of this group should form part of wider plans to reduce inequalities in health and service use in England. Methods Secondary analysis of data from the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey (APMS) was conducted to profile the circumstances of people with borderline intellectual impairment. APMS is one of the most authoritative and comprehensive national household surveys to assess both intellectual functioning and mental health in adults in England

Shear-free, Irrotational, Geodesic, Anisotropic Fluid Cosmologies

General relativistic anisotropic fluid models whose fluid flow lines form a shear-free, irrotational, geodesic timelike congruence are examined. These models are of Petrov type D, and are assumed to have zero heat flux and an anisotropic stress tensor that possesses two distinct non-zero eigenvalues. Some general results concerning the form of the metric and the stress-tensor for these models are established. Furthermore, if the energy density and the isotropic pressure, as measured by a comoving observer, satisfy an equation of state of the form $p = p(\mu)$, with $\frac{dp}{d\mu} \neq -\frac{1}{3}$, then these spacetimes admit a foliation by spacelike hypersurfaces of constant Ricci scalar. In addition, models for which both the energy density and the anisotropic pressures only depend on time are investigated; both spatially homogeneous and spatially inhomogeneous models are found. A classification of these models is undertaken. Also, a particular class of anisotropic fluid models which are simple generalizations of the homogeneous isotropic cosmological models is studied.Comment: 13 pages LaTe

The specialty choices of graduates from Brighton and Sussex Medical School: a longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND Since 2007 junior doctors in the UK have had to make major career decisions at a point when previously many had not yet chosen a specialty. This study examined when doctors in this new system make specialty choices, which factors influence choices, and whether doctors who choose a specialty they were interested in at medical school are more confident in their choice than those doctors whose interests change post-graduation. METHODS Two cohorts of students in their penultimate year at one medical school (n = 227/239) were asked which specialty interested them as a career. Two years later, 210/227 were sent a questionnaire measuring actual specialty chosen, confidence, influence of perceptions of the specialty and experiences on choice, satisfaction with medicine, personality, self-efficacy, and demographics. Medical school and post-graduation choices in the same category were deemed 'stable'. Predictors of stability, and of not having chosen a specialty, were calculated using bootstrapped logistic regression. Differences between specialties on questionnaire factors were analysed. RESULTS 50% responded (n = 105/277; 44% of the 239 Year 4 students). 65% specialty choices were 'stable'. Factors univariately associated with stability were specialty chosen, having enjoyed the specialty at medical school or since starting work, having first considered the specialty earlier. A regression found doctors who chose psychiatry were more likely to have changed choice than those who chose general practice. Confidence in the choice was not associated with stability. Those who chose general practice valued lifestyle factors. A psychiatry choice was associated with needing a job and using one's intellect to help others. The decision to choose surgical training tended to be made early. Not having applied for specialty training was associated with being lower on agreeableness and conscientiousness. CONCLUSION Medical school experiences are important in specialty choice but experiences post-graduation remain significant, particularly in some specialties (psychiatry in our sample). Career guidance is important at medical school and should be continued post-graduation, with senior clinicians supported in advising juniors. Careers advice in the first year post-graduation may be particularly important, especially for specialties which have difficulty recruiting or are poorly represented at medical school

Acute military psychiatric casualties from the war in Iraq

Background: The view that most military personnel evacuated from war zones are suffering from combat stress reactions, or are otherwise traumatised by the horrors of war, has an impact on all aspects of military psychiatry. Aims: To delineate the reasons for psychiatric aeromedical evacuation from Iraq from the start of build-up of UK forces in January 2003 until the end of October that year, 6 months after the end of formal hostilities. Method: A retrospective study was conducted of field and in-patient psychiatric assessments of 116 military personnel evacuated to the UK military psychiatric in-patient facility in Catterick Garrison. Results: Evacuees were mainly non-combatants (69%). A significant proportion were in reserve service (21%) and had a history of contact with mental health services (37%). Only 3% had a combat stress reaction. In over 85% of cases evacuation was for low mood attributed to separation from friends or family, or difficulties adjusting to the environment. Conclusions: These findings have implications especially for screening for suitability for deployment, and for understanding any longer-term mental health problems arising in veterans from Iraq

Very long optical path-length from a compact multi-pass cell

The multiple-pass optical cell is an important tool for laser absorption spectroscopy and its many applications. For most practical applications, such as trace-gas detection, a compact and robust design is essential. Here we report an investigation into a multi-pass cell design based on a pair of cylindrical mirrors, with a particular focus on achieving very long optical paths. We demonstrate a path-length of 50.31 m in a cell with 40 mm diameter mirrors spaced 88.9 mm apart - a 3-fold increase over the previously reported longest path-length obtained with this type of cell configuration. We characterize the mechanical stability of the cell and describe the practical conditions necessary to achieve very long path-lengths