Five decades on: use of historical weaning size data reveals that a decrease in maternal foraging success underpins the long-term decline in population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina)

The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later

TreeRipper web application: towards a fully automated optical tree recognition software

Background: Relationships between species, genes and genomes have been printed as trees for over a century. Whilst this may have been the best format for exchanging and sharing phylogenetic hypotheses during the 20(th) century, the worldwide web now provides faster and automated ways of transferring and sharing phylogenetic knowledge. However, novel software is needed to defrost these published phylogenies for the 21(st) century. Results: TreeRipper is a simple website for the fully-automated recognition of multifurcating phylogenetic trees (http://linnaeus.zoology.gla.ac.uk/similar to jhughes/treeripper/). The program accepts a range of input image formats (PNG, JPG/JPEG or GIF). The underlying command line c++ program follows a number of cleaning steps to detect lines, remove node labels, patch-up broken lines and corners and detect line edges. The edge contour is then determined to detect the branch length, tip label positions and the topology of the tree. Optical Character Recognition (OCR) is used to convert the tip labels into text with the freely available tesseract-ocr software. 32% of images meeting the prerequisites for TreeRipper were successfully recognised, the largest tree had 115 leaves. Conclusions: Despite the diversity of ways phylogenies have been illustrated making the design of a fully automated tree recognition software difficult, TreeRipper is a step towards automating the digitization of past phylogenies. We also provide a dataset of 100 tree images and associated tree files for training and/or benchmarking future software. TreeRipper is an open source project licensed under the GNU General Public Licence v

A Prolific Solvate Former, Galunisertib, under the Pressure of Crystal Structure Prediction, Produces Ten Diverse Polymorphs

The solid form screening of galunisertib produced many solvates, prompting an extensive investigation into possible risks to the development of the favored monohydrate form. Inspired by crystal structure prediction, the search for neat polymorphs was expanded to an unusual range of experiments, including melt crystallization under pressure, to work around solvate formation and the thermal instability of the molecule. Ten polymorphs of galunisertib were found; however, the structure predicted to be the most stable has yet to be obtained. We present the crystal structures of all ten unsolvated polymorphs of galunisertib, showing how state-of-the-art characterization methods can be combined with emerging computational modeling techniques to produce a complete structure landscape and assess the risk of late-appearing, more stable polymorphs. The exceptional conformational polymorphism of this prolific solvate former invites further development of methods, computational and experimental, that are applicable to larger, flexible molecules with complex solid form landscapes

Deep learning resolves representative movement patterns in a marine predator species

The analysis of animal movement from telemetry data provides insights into how and why animals move. While traditional approaches to such analysis mostly focus on predicting animal states during movement, we describe an approach that allows us to identify representative movement patterns of different animal groups. To do this, we propose a carefully designed recurrent neural network and combine it with telemetry data for automatic feature extraction and identification of non-predefined representative patterns. In the experiment, we consider a particular marine predator species, the southern elephant seal, as an example. With our approach, we identify that the male seals in our data set share similar movement patterns when they are close to land. We identify this pattern recurring in a number of distant locations, consistent with alternative approaches from previous research

COP21 climate negotiators' responses to climate model forecasts

Policymakers involved in climate change negotiations are key users of climate science. It is therefore vital to understand how to communicate scientific information most effectively to this group. We tested how a unique sample of policymakers and negotiators at the Paris COP21 conference update their beliefs on year 2100 global mean temperature increases in response to a statistical summary of climate models' forecasts. We randomized the way information was provided across participants using three different formats similar to those used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. In spite of having received all available relevant scientific information, policymakers adopted such information very conservatively, assigning it less weight than their own prior beliefs. However, providing individual model estimates in addition to the statistical range was more effective in mitigating such inertia. The experiment was repeated with a population of European MBA students who, despite starting from similar priors, reported conditional probabilities closer to the provided models' forecasts than policymakers. There was also no effect of presentation format in the MBA sample. These results highlight the importance of testing visualization tools directly on the population of interest