A comparison of some numerical methods for the advection-diffusion equation

This paper describes a comparison of some numerical methods for solving the advection-diffusion (AD) equation which may be used to describe transport of a pollutant. The one-dimensional advection-diffusion equation is solved by using cubic splines (the natural cubic spline and a ”special” AD cubic spline) to estimate first and second derivatives, and also by solving the same problem using two standard finite difference schemes (the FTCS and Crank-Nicolson methods). Two examples are used for comparison; the numerical results are compared with analytical solutions. It is found that, for the examples studied, the finite difference methods give better point-wise solutions than the spline methods

Greenhouse abatement policy: insights from the G-cubed multi-country model

The third meeting of the Conference of the Parties of the Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Japan last December was a lost opportunity to set a realistic policy framework for addressing climate change in the coming decades. A number of countries proposed targets for greenhouse emissions, to be reached by a target date. The outcome was a range of different targets for each country. Analysis with the G‐cubed multi‐country model suggests that fixed targets are a costly way to address climate change. The extent of potential cost suggests the agreement will eventually fail. A better way to address climate change is to focus on uniformity in policy instruments that deliver differentiated outcomes rather than focus on differentiated policy settings.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Engaging as Partners in Energy Efficiency: A Primer for Utilities on the Energy Efficiency Needs of Multifamily Buildings and Their Owners

The multifamily building sector presents a unique set of challenges and opportunities for utilities seeking to implement effective energy efficiency programs. To deliver successful programs, utilities must understand what motivates building owners to take part in these programs, as well as barriers that may prevent participation.This paper outlines the opportunities to meet energy efficiency goals with multifamily programs. It then describes the benefits that multifamily building owners gain from these programs, and the barriers they face to participation. The paper focuses on rental housing, because these buildings are owned by a single entity and form the largest sector of the multifamily housing market. The paper provides a framework to help utilities develop successful programs that maximize energy savings and create benefits for building owners, tenants, and communities. And lastly, the paper recommends nine program design considerations that can help attract multifamily building owners to utility energy efficiency programs

The East Asian crisis : investigating causes and policy responses

The authors identify as the primary cause of the East Asian crisis a fundamental reassessment of the profitability of investments in the region. They identify a number of secondary shocks as well, including interest risk premia, monetary expansion, and declines in output brought about by failures of the financial market. Unlike the Latin American crisis of the 1980s, the East Asian crisis did not reflect commodity price shocks, large changes in world interest rates, fiscal imbalances, or inflationary shocks. It involved large-scale borrowing abroad, but by the private sector rather than the government - andfor the normally well-regarded purpose of funding capital investment. It seems unlikely that terms of trade shocks or changes in exchange rates due to pegging to the dollar could, alone, have caused an adjustment crisis of this magnitude - although they could have helped trigger the crisis. More important, expectations of future growth in returns to the corporate sector began to fall. Declines in asset valuations caused major shifts in investment portfolios, and the consequences of asset market shocks were compounded by secondary shocks associated with the abrupt shift to floating rates, concerns about the credibility of government policies, weaknesses in financial sectors, and inadequacies in the mechanisms for corporate restructuring and liquidation. The authors use of forward-looking modeling framework to capture some of the major interactions between asset markets, output, and trade in the countries worst hit by the crisis. They find that the model is able to capture the main features of the crisis.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Stabilization,Macroeconomic Management,Banks&Banking Reform

The potential impact of the global financial crisis on world trade

This paper models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households and international investors in a global economic model. The model has six sectors of production and trade in 15 major economies and regions. The paper shows that the shocks observed in financial markets can be used to generate the severe economic contraction in global trade and production experienced in 2009. In particular the distinction between the production and trade of durable and non durable goods plays a key role in explaining the much larger contraction in trade than GDP experienced by most economies. The paper explores the implications of the large increase in fiscal deficits and the implications of a global trade war in response to the financial crisis.Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Labor Policies

Macroeconomic Policies in the OECD and LDC External Adjustmemt

In this paper, the authors describe a simulation model for analyzing the effects of macroeconomic policies in the OECD on global macroeconomic equilibrium. Particular attention is paid to the effects on developing countries of alternative mixes of monetary and fiscal policies in the OECD.Though the model is quite small, it has several properties which make it attractive for policy analysis. First, the important stock-flow relationships and intertemporal budget constraints are carefully observed, so that the modelis useful for short-run and long-run analysis. Budget deficits, for example,cumulate into a stock of public debt which must be serviced, while current account deficits cumulate into a stock of foreign debt. Second, the asset markets are forward looking, so that the exchange rate is conditioned by the entire future path of policies rather than by a set of short-run expectations. Third, the model is amenable to policy optimization exercises, and in particular can be used to study the effects of policy coordination versus non-coordination in the OECD, on global macroeconomic equilibrium.

MODELLING GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE:RESULTS FOR JAPAN

In earlier papers (McKibbin and Nguyen (2001, (2002)) we introduced demographic features into the MSG3 model of the world economy, following the approach of Bryant and McKibbin (2001). In this paper we use the same theoretical technique to develop a series of models based on a consistent database from a simple two country symmetric theoretical model to the complete 4 country MSG3 model, which represents the empirical characteristics of Japan, United States, Rest of OECD and Rest of World. We explore a stylized decline in fertility similar to that experienced by Japan since the 1950 (exactly the same shock as the stylized shock used in Bryant (2004)). We first explore the properties of the theoretical model with both a global and a single country shock. This gives similar results to that found in the basic framework underlying the Bryant (2004) approach. We then move from the simplest fully optimizing framework to increasing add complexity to the model until we build a model of Japan. We explore the same shock across the models of increasing complexity in this paper and compare our results to the Bryant approach. We find that although the basic insights from the sequences of theoretical papers in the Brooking-ANU project continue to hold, the quantitative results change significantly as the model is adapted to have more characteristics of Japan. In a final section, we use the complete model to explore the likely impacts on Japan of the demographic change already experienced from 1970 and look to the likely changes to be experienced out to 2040.

Global Emissions Trading: Prospects and Pitfalls

Global Emissions Trading: Prospects and Pitfallspermit trading, climate change, Kyoto, Blueprint, Dutch Disease