Modelling the cooking process of a single cereal grain

Four models are developed to assist with the uniform and accurate cooking of whole grains for Uncle Tobys breakfast cereals. 1. Heat satisfies a linear conduction equation and is found to rapidly penetrate the grain. 2. Moisture satisfies a non-linear diffusion equation, and is found to penetrate the grain more slowly than heat. The more sophisticated moisture diffusion model is solved by numerical and analytic techniques for spherical and ellipsoidal grains. A vital role is played in the moisture diffusion model by the concept of the mean action time for wetting a grain. These first two models are used to determine sensitivity to key cooking parameters, and to calculate the degree of over-cook in the existing batch steam process. Recommendations are made for improving and speeding up the cooking process. The last two models are modifications of the nonlinear moisture penetration model 2. above. The results of these improved models have the potential to provide finer adjustments to estimates of wetting times. 3. A cereal grain swells significantly during wetting. A model that takes this into account is developed and solved approximately. 4. Another wetting model describes the effect of the gelatinisation reaction, slowing moisture penetration, and leading to a sharp front entering the grain. The effect of gelatinisation on the speed of moisture penetration is expected to be more important for the present high-temperature cooking process, than when soaking a grain at a lower temperature. This model is also developed and solved approximately

Uncovering the effectual-causal resilience nexus in the era of Covid-19: A case of a food sector SME's resilience in the face of the global pandemic

This research explores the underlying roles of effectuation and causation logic as they impact upon firm resilience in Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs) in the unprecedented disruption caused by Covid-19. Because Covid-19 provides a unique and powerful discontinuance to internal and external environments, it requires firm adaptation in a wide variety of areas, as they seek to find a new “normal”. Our study contributes to the literature by applying effectuation to understand how an SME can experiment and learn in the face of disruption, and then subsequently causally adapt their resources and networks to achieve resilient outcomes. It adds to knowledge about the interaction between effectual and causal logic, leading to a more nuanced explanation of how and why an SME might apply each logic when responding to disruption caused by Covid-19

WEATHER-BASED ADVERSE SELECTION AND THE U.S. CROP INSURANCE PROGRAM: THE PRIVATE INSURANCE COMPANY PERSPECTIVE

Surprisingly, investigations of adverse selection have focused only on farmers. Conversely, this article investigates if insurance companies, not farmers, can generate excess rents from adverse selection activities. Currently political forces fashioning crop insurance as the cornerstone of U.S. agricultural policy make our analysis particularly topical. Focusing on El Nino/La Nina and winter wheat in Texas, we simulate out-of-sample reinsurance decisions during the 1978 through 1997 crop years while reflecting the realities imposed by the risk-sharing arrangement between the insurance companies and the federal government. The simulations indicate that economically and statistically significant excess rents may be garnered by insurance companies through weather-based adverse selection.Risk and Uncertainty,

Underestimation of money growth and pensions: Experimental investigations. ESRI WP611, February 2019

People underestimate long-term growth in savings because they linearise exponential growth – a phenomenon known as exponential growth bias (EGB). This bias has implications for multiple financial decisions, particularly those relating to pensions. We hypothesised that underestimation might be even more severe for regular savings relative to lump sums, because savers need also to estimate accumulation. The additional cognitive load could strengthen EGB, or individuals might underestimate accumulation in addition to EGB. Four experiments investigated: (1) whether underestimation of money growth is greater for long streams of regular savings than for lump sums; (2) whether underestimation occurs when questions are framed intuitively as the cost of delaying starting a pension; and (3) whether practice with a calculator designed to illustrate the cost of delay attenuates underestimation. Individuals were more likely to underestimate money growth from regular savings than from lump sums, because they failed to accumulate contributions in addition to displaying EGB. Underestimation was substantial and persistent. Practice with a calculator partially attenuated underestimation, primarily among individuals with higher educational attainment and without a pension. Overall, these findings imply that across multiple judgements, decisions and frames, individuals substantially underestimate money growth, reducing the attractiveness of saving

The framing of options for retirement: Experimental tests for policy. ESRI WP604, December 2018

We hypothesise and confirm a substantial framing effect in relation to whether people opt for an annuity on retirement. Two laboratory experiments were conducted in collaboration with a national pensions regulator. Individuals demanded a higher annuity rate when pensions were initially conceived of as an accumulated lump sum – a “nest egg” or “pension pot” – than when they were initially conceived of as retirement income. The effect was recorded using both a matching and a choice procedure. Effect sizes implied more than a doubling of demand for annuities at market rates. While mindful of the need for caution in generalising from hypothetical laboratory studies, the findings have potentially strong policy implications. The framing of pension products in marketing materials and disclosures may have substantial effects on financial risks borne in later life

Studies in immunity: more especially with reference to some of the reactions of complement; and, to the seat of origin of complement and immune body

#1. The method of investigating the seat of origin of antibodies, especially the haemolysins, bactericidal bodies and precipitins, by means of "Organ extracts" is valueless: and no reliance can be placed on results derived by such a method. #2. Normal rabbits, injected intravenously with ox blood corpuscles, show Immune body, in their blood, against ox blood corpuscles, for the first time, on or about the third day. #3. Normal rabbits, from which the spleen alone, the spleen and thyroid, the thyroid alone, or one Kidney has been removed and into which, within a week or so after the operation, ox blood corpuscles have been injected intravenously, show, like the controls, Immune body, against ox blood corpuscles * for the first time on or about the third day. #4. The total leucocyte count of perfectly normal rabbits may vary in different individuals between roughly 4,000 and 15,000; in individual rabbits, in ordinary and exaggerated conditions of laboratory life, as regards feeding time of day &c., the total leucocytes do not vary beyond 3,000 on either side of a mean per Cram,that is beyond the limits to be allowed for experimental error. #5. The differential count, as regards polymorphonuclears and lymphocytes, varies so much, under ordinary laboratory conditions, in the same rabbit, at different times, and in different rabbits, that conclusions should be drawn, with great caution, from any variation under experimental conditions. #6. The spleen was removed from a normal rabbit. Two days after its removal, it was injected intravenously with ox blood corpuscles. Immune body appeared in its blood in three days and yet there was no leucocytosis. To adopt the usual criterion this may be taken as evidence that a compensatory action on the part of the hone marrow and lymphatic apparatus has been excluded. #7. Injections into normal rabbits, intravenously, intraperitoneally, and subcutaneously, of even large amounts of ox blood corpuscles do not produce a variation in the total leucocyte count beyond that in control animals. #8. Such injections, - and I speak here with the greatest caution - produce no effect on the differential count. #9. From the above results, I would conclude provisionally, that so far as such methods can settle such a question, there is great probability that neither, the spleen, nor the bone marrow, nor the lymphatic apparatus, nor the kidney, is the seat of formation in rabbits, of Immune body against ox blood corpuscles. #10. Normal rabbits, from whom blood, a haemoiysin, agglutinin and precipitin for ox blood has been carefully excluded, after being fed for some time on ox blood, show in their blood all of these active principles. This gives some support to the view, to be advanced in this paper, that the formation of antibodies is allied to the ordinary physiological processes of assimilation: and as the liver is accredited by physiologists with a high role in such processes, to the liver being regarded provisionally as a possible seat of formation of Immune body, - (for sensitised ox blood corpuscles. #11. The amount of complement in leech, citrate, fluoride, and oxalate plasmas of the rabbit is the same as in the corresponding leech, citrate, fluoride, and oxalate sera. #12. Normal aqueous humour of rabbits and the fluid from a tape worm cyst of the rabbit, do not contain complement for sensitised ox blood corpuscles. They are both highly specialised secretions. #13. The fluid that collects in a short time after puncture in the anterior chamber of the eye and Blister fluids do contain, such complement. They are both of the nature of transudates from the blood vessels. #14. As showing the highly specialised nature of the secretion in the anterior chamber of the eye, some rabbits, with a blood serum, of very high titre in Immune body against ox blood corpuscles, may have none of this Immune body in even 0.5cc of their aqueous humour). #15. Normal rabbits may be bled to the extent of more than one third of their blood at one sitting, or of more than one half within 18 hours without showing any change in the complement content of their serum for sensitised ox blood corpuscles . #16. If a normal rabbit, whose blood has been ascertained to be free from Immune body against ox blood corpuscles, be injected intravenously with a large amount of ox blood corpuscles - 28cc equivalent to 56cc defibrinated blood - the ox blood corpuscles can be recognised in the rabbit's general circulation until about the third day. At that time there is a critical formation of Immune body, a critical disappearance of the ox blood corpuscles, and a critical haemoglobinuria. contrary to what Sachs found, I did not observe any variation in the complement content for ox blood corpuscles in such an experiment. #17. The infection intravenously into normal rabbits of unsensitised ox blood corpuscles, even in very large quantity, does not produce any diminution of complement. The injection intravenously into normal rabbits, of an amount of sensitised or saturated ox blood corpuscles calculated to be sufficient to use up all the complement in the rabbit's body produces no reduction of the complement, while the injection of four times the calculated amount of such corpuscles into a similar rabbit, produces a scarcely perceptible diminution of the complement. On the other hand, the injection intravenously into rabbits, which have been immunised against ox blood corpuscles, of a quantity of fresh, sensitised, or saturated corpuscles far from sufficient to use up all the calculated amount of complement in the animal's body, markedly reduces the complement content of the animal's blood. Such animals often die rapidly. The possible explanation of both Phenomena may be,that the sudden lysis sets free stromata, which absorb the complement and further block the capillaries of the lung and other organs. #18. If a normal rabbit be injected intraperitoneally with inactivated Immune serum against rabbit corpuscles, obtained by injecting a guinea pig with rabbit corpuscles, this heated immune serum appears to be absorbed into the rabbits bloodyto find complement there free in the blood, to unite with it and to cause extracellular haemolysis of the rabbi'ts red blood corpuscles and intense haemoglobinuria. #19. There is great probability therefore, that complement exists, free in the circulating plasma of the blood, and that, further, the organ, producing complement, must be one of great metabolic activity and of exceptional powers of regeneration. #20. The extirpation of the spleen and of the thyroid in rabbits may be said to cause no variation in the complement content of rabbits' serum. #21. Taking such things in relation, with the positive findings of Nolf, Ehrlich &c., I submit that the liver ought to be considered as a possible seat of origin of complement. #22. When hen corpuscles are injected intravenously into rabbits, the corpuscles tend to accumulate and to be retained in the liver. #23. Such corpuscles are phagocyted to a small degree by the liver cells and Kupfer cells. No evidence was observed for phagocytosis taking place in the spleen or any of the other organs. #24. The liver cells are capable of a wide variation in morphological appearance, possibly corresponding with a similar wide range of metabolic activity and functioning. #25. Taking into consideration the facts exclusive and presumptive accumulated above concerning the seat of origin of Immune body, the facts of the accumulation and retention of hen corpuscles in the liver and then phagocytosis there, and the fact of the great variation possible in the liver cell, I submit that the liver ought to be considered as a possible seat of origin of immune body. #26. To generalise, I would submit the possibility of the formation of antibodies being, in nature, the hypertrophy of a normal physiological process - a process which physiologically deals with overflow from the intestinal tract of material, toxic and non toxic, fluid and particulate, multiplying and non multiplying and which has escaped the process of intestinal digestion to which the bulk of absorbed material is subjected before absorption

St. Gallen, Stiftsbiblioothek MS 9: Tobit, Judith, Esther; Canticles; Biblical glossary

446. St. Gallen, Stiftsbibliothek MS 9 Tobit, Judith, Esther; Canticles; Biblical glossary [Ker App. 24; Gneuss -] HISTORY: A later 9c composite in three parts, probably written in the Benedictine abbey of St. Gall, though the third part has been associated also with Reichenau (Dietz 2001: 150), consisting of (1) Tobit, Judith, Esther, pp. 1-247, this part mentioned in the 9c St. Gall catalogue in Saint Gall 728, p. 5/16, 'Tobias. iudith. hester. in codice .i: (cf. facs. in e-codices, ed. Lehmann 1918: 72), (2) Canticles, pp. 248-263, (3) a Latin-OHG biblical glossary to the Old Testament, Genesis-3 Kings (with some residual OE glosses to Leviticus), plus Sapientia-Ecclesiasticus, pp. 264-319. [Note: There are 178 OHG glosses (Bergmann 2003: 42) in contemporary Alemannic dialect with Frankish and east-Frankish elements (Wich-Reif 2001: 275). On the OE in the glossary cf. Schroter 1926: 10, who refers to p. 276b/7 'felefor: p. 277a/5 'uuald falcho: and Ker Cat. p. 480, who refers to p. 276b/3-4 'saxonice meum'; these are pr. Steinmeyer and Sievers 1879-1922: 1.342-43 (henceforth "StS"). Vaciago (2000- 2002: 246-49 et pass., 2004: vi) links St. Gallen 9 with other St. Gall manuscripts (295 (449). 299 (450]) and with St. Paul im Lavanthal, Archiv des Benediktinerstiftes cod. 82/1 [454] as a "St. Gallen" grouping related to the "Rz"/Leiden family of glossaries but bearing signs of conflation with other sources of biblical and non-biblical materials. St. Gall 9 lies very close to the archetype according to Schroter ( 1926: 3-7), for "Rz"; see also StS 1879-1922: 5.108-12 and Vaciago 1996; brief description of manuscript, StS 4.441-42]. In the first part, a single hand writing continental caroline minuscule with titles in rustica; the same is true of the second part, a compilation from two separate manuscripts, while the third part shows continental carolingian minuscule with some insular influence (best seen on pp. 314-318). Strips from an 8c St. Gall manuscript were used to reinforce a few leaves in parts 1 and 3 (see note to "Collation"). Berger (1893: 129) suggested that the biblical texts were copied from St. Gall 14, which in turn was a copy of a Reichenau manuscript borrowed for that purpose by Notker Balbulus (ca. 840-912); he also notes similarities between St. Gall 9, St. Gall 4, and St. Gall 68, the last perhaps copied out during the abbacy of Hartmut Description of manuscript in Bergmann and Stricker 2005: 1.461-63 (no. 173)

St. Gallen, Stiftsbibliothek MS 295: Compilation of biblical glossaries and glossae collectae, Eucherius, "Instructiones;' Jerome, Epistle 25

449. St. Gallen, Stiftsbibliothek MS 295 Compilation of biblical glossaries and glossae collectae, Eucherius, "Instructiones;' Jerome, Epistle 25 [Ker App. 27, Gneuss -] HISTORY: A late 9/early 10c collection of Old and New Testament and other glossaries and materials with OHG and, less frequently, OE-derived interpretations (see Steinmeyer and Sievers 1879-1922: 4.448-49, henceforth "StS"). In a single hand, possibly a St. Gall hand (cf. Bruckner 1938: 94); this type of hand is sometimes called ''.Alemannic" minuscule; some chapter rubrics in rustic capitals. The group of three manuscripts containing biblical glossaries and described, on the basis of origin of two of its three members, as the "St. Gallen group" (Vaciago 2000/2002: 241), includes as well as this manuscript St. Gall 9 [446] and "P'; St. Paul im Lavantal, Stiftsbibliothek x.xv. d. 82 [454]. The common nucleus of this group of three manuscripts(= "PSg") has been seen as "forming a clearly distinct branch of the tradition ultimately deriving from Canterbury" (Vaciago 2000/2002: 241,247) and as having the glossary tradition represented by the Leiden Glossary (Leiden, Bibliotheek der Rijksuniversiteit, Voss. lat. fol. 24 (156] = "L2") as one of its "main building blocks" (Vaciago 2004: I.vi). The biblical glossary in St. Gall 295, in the view of its editor, P. Vaciago, "represents an attempt, generally sucessful, to reorder into a single, coherent series the idiosyncratic sequence of material shared by P and Sg 9" (Vaciago 2000: 247). To summarize the arguments in Pheifer 1995, Vaciago 2000/2002, and Vaciago 2004 (Vol. 1, introduction), to the extent that the biblical glossaries in "PSg"and "Rz" (Karlsruhe, Landesbibl. Aug. 99 ( 86) [ 142]) are descendents of traditions represented in Pent I, II, III (Pent. III for "PSg"; on these see Bischoff and Lapidge 1994: 190-94, 290-94 et pass.), both can be said to be equally close to an "English tradition:' by which is meant the school of Canterbury and the program of Theodore and Hadrian. A complete digital facsimile of St. Gall 295 has been published recently: http://www.e-codices.unifr.ch/en/csg/0295/