'Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!': Effects of Streaks on Confidence and Betting in a Binary Choice Task.

This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bdm.1844/abstract.Human choice under uncertainty is influenced by erroneous beliefs about randomness. In simple binary choice tasks, such as red/black predictions in roulette, long outcome runs (e.g. red, red, red) typically increase the tendency to predict the other outcome (i.e. black), an effect labeled the "gambler's fallacy." In these settings, participants may also attend to streaks in their predictive performance. Winning and losing streaks are thought to affect decision confidence, although prior work indicates conflicting directions. Over three laboratory experiments involving red/black predictions in a sequential roulette task, we sought to identify the effects of outcome runs and winning/losing streaks upon color predictions, decision confidence and betting behavior. Experiments 1 (n = 40) and 3 (n = 40) obtained trial-by-trial confidence ratings, with a win/no win payoff and a no loss/loss payoff, respectively. Experiment 2 (n = 39) obtained a trial-by-trial bet amount on an equivalent scale. In each experiment, the gambler's fallacy was observed on choice behavior after color runs and, in experiment 2, on betting behavior after color runs. Feedback streaks exerted no reliable influence on confidence ratings, in either payoff condition. Betting behavior, on the other hand, increased as a function of losing streaks. The increase in betting on losing streaks is interpreted as a manifestation of loss chasing; these data help clarify the psychological mechanisms underlying loss chasing and caution against the use of betting measures ("post-decision wagering") as a straightforward index of decision confidence. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Adaptive radiation along a deeply conserved genetic line of least resistance in \u3cem\u3eAnolis\u3c/em\u3e lizards

On microevolutionary timescales, adaptive evolution depends upon both natural selection and the underlying genetic architecture of traits under selection, which may constrain evolutionary outcomes. Whether such genetic constraints shape phenotypic diversity over macroevolutionary timescales is more controversial, however. One key prediction is that genetic constraints should bias the early stages of species divergence along “genetic lines of least resistance” defined by the genetic (co)variance matrix, G. This bias is expected to erode over time as species means and G matrices diverge, allowing phenotypes to evolve away from the major axis of variation. We tested for evidence of this signal in West Indian Anolis lizards, an iconic example of adaptive radiation. We found that the major axis of morphological evolution was well aligned with a major axis of genetic variance shared by all species despite separation times of 20–40 million years, suggesting that divergence occurred along a conserved genetic line of least resistance. Further, this signal persisted even as G itself evolved, apparently because the largest evolutionary changes in G were themselves aligned with the line of genetic least resistance. Our results demonstrate that the signature of genetic constraint may persist over much longer timescales than previously appreciated, even in the presence of evolving genetic architecture. This pattern may have arisen either because pervasive constraints have biased the course of adaptive evolution or because the G matrix itself has been shaped by selection to conform to the adaptive landscape

Update to the Vitamin C, Thiamine and Steroids in Sepsis (VICTAS) protocol: statistical analysis plan for a prospective, multicenter, double-blind, adaptive sample size, randomized, placebo-controlled, clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Observational research suggests that combined therapy with Vitamin C, thiamine and hydrocortisone may reduce mortality in patients with septic shock. METHODS AND DESIGN: The Vitamin C, Thiamine and Steroids in Sepsis (VICTAS) trial is a multicenter, double-blind, adaptive sample size, randomized, placebo-controlled trial designed to test the efficacy of combination therapy with vitamin C (1.5 g), thiamine (100 mg), and hydrocortisone (50 mg) given every 6 h for up to 16 doses in patients with respiratory or circulatory dysfunction (or both) resulting from sepsis. The primary outcome is ventilator- and vasopressor-free days with mortality as the key secondary outcome. Recruitment began in August 2018 and is ongoing; 501 participants have been enrolled to date, with a planned maximum sample size of 2000. The Data and Safety Monitoring Board reviewed interim results at N = 200, 300, 400 and 500, and has recommended continuing recruitment. The next interim analysis will occur when N = 1000. This update presents the statistical analysis plan. Specifically, we provide definitions for key treatment and outcome variables, and for intent-to-treat, per-protocol, and safety analysis datasets. We describe the planned descriptive analyses, the main analysis of the primary end point, our approach to secondary and exploratory analyses, and handling of missing data. Our goal is to provide enough detail that our approach could be replicated by an independent study group, thereby enhancing the transparency of the study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03509350. Registered on 26 April 2018

An interpretative phenomenological analysis of posttraumatic growth in adults bereaved by suicide

This study explored experiences of posttraumatic growth in adults bereaved by suicide. Six participants were interviewed using a semi-structured interview schedule. Transcribed interviews were analyzed from an interpretative phenomenological framework. Two superordinate themes, with three ordinate themes in each, were identified: (a) positive growth (“life view,” “knowledge of self,” and “relation to others”) and (b) social context (“gaze of others,” “public guise,” and “solace of other survivors”). Suicide survivors gain extra insights due to their experiences, but are reluctant to acknowledge that they do. This requires consideration in theoretical and clinical setting

Event-related alpha suppression in response to facial motion

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.While biological motion refers to both face and body movements, little is known about the visual perception of facial motion. We therefore examined alpha wave suppression as a reduction in power is thought to reflect visual activity, in addition to attentional reorienting and memory processes. Nineteen neurologically healthy adults were tested on their ability to discriminate between successive facial motion captures. These animations exhibited both rigid and non-rigid facial motion, as well as speech expressions. The structural and surface appearance of these facial animations did not differ, thus participants decisions were based solely on differences in facial movements. Upright, orientation-inverted and luminance-inverted facial stimuli were compared. At occipital and parieto-occipital regions, upright facial motion evoked a transient increase in alpha which was then followed by a significant reduction. This finding is discussed in terms of neural efficiency, gating mechanisms and neural synchronization. Moreover, there was no difference in the amount of alpha suppression evoked by each facial stimulus at occipital regions, suggesting early visual processing remains unaffected by manipulation paradigms. However, upright facial motion evoked greater suppression at parieto-occipital sites, and did so in the shortest latency. Increased activity within this region may reflect higher attentional reorienting to natural facial motion but also involvement of areas associated with the visual control of body effectors. © 2014 Girges et al

Social Selection and Indirect Genetic Effects in Structured populations

Social selection and indirect genetic effects (IGEs) are established concepts in both behavioural ecology and evolutionary genetics. While IGEs describe effects of an individual’s genotype on phenotypes of social partners (and may thus affect their fitness indirectly), the concept of social selection assumes that a given phenotype in one individual affects the fitness of other individuals directly. Although different frameworks, both have been used to investigate the evolution of social traits, such as cooperative behaviour. Despite their similarities (both concepts consider interactions among individuals), they differ in the type of interaction. It remains unclear whether the two concepts make the same predictions about evolutionary trajectories or not. To address this question, we investigate four possible scenarios of social interactions and compare the effects of IGEs and social selection for trait evolution in a multi-trait multi-member model. We show that the two mechanisms can yield similar evolutionary outcomes and that both can create selection pressure at the group level. However, the effect of IGEs can be stronger due to the possibility of feedback loops. Finally, we demonstrate that IGEs, but not social selection gradients, may lead to differences in the direction of evolutionary response between genotypes and phenotypes

Early spring sex differences in luteinizing hormone response to gonadotropin releasing hormone in co-occurring resident and migrant dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis)

AbstractTo optimally time reproduction, animals must coordinate changes in the hypothalamo-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis. The extent of intra-species variation in seasonal timing of reproductive function is considerable, both within and among populations. Dark-eyed junco (Junco hyemalis) populations are known to differ in their reproductive timing response to cues experienced in the same habitat in late winter/early spring. Specifically in juncos cohabitating on shared wintering grounds, residents initiate breeding and reproductive activity but migrants delay reproductive development and prepare to migrate before breeding. Here, we test the hypothesis that the pituitary gland acts as a ‘control point’ to modulate differential HPG axis activity across populations. We sampled free-living resident and migrant juncos on their shared over-wintering grounds in March, thus all individuals were experiencing the same environmental cues, including photoperiod. We predicted that during this critical time of transition, residents would more readily respond to repeated gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) stimulation with increases in luteinizing hormone (LH), in contrast to migrants, which should delay full reproductive activity. Our data indicate that migrant females, while still on the overwintering grounds, have a reduced LH response to repeated GnRH injections compared to resident females. Male migrant and resident birds did not differ in their responsiveness to repeated GnRH. Our results suggest a sex difference in the costs of mistimed activation of the HPG axis, with female migrants being less responsive than residents females and males to repeated stimulation. Further, our data implicate a key role for the pituitary in regulating appropriate reproductive timing responses

Delineating the molecular and phenotypic spectrum of the SETD1B-related syndrome

Purpose Pathogenic variants in SETD1B have been associated with a syndromic neurodevelopmental disorder including intellectual disability, language delay, and seizures. To date, clinical features have been described for 11 patients with (likely) pathogenic SETD1B sequence variants. This study aims to further delineate the spectrum of the SETD1B-related syndrome based on characterizing an expanded patient cohort. Methods We perform an in-depth clinical characterization of a cohort of 36 unpublished individuals with SETD1B sequence variants, describing their molecular and phenotypic spectrum. Selected variants were functionally tested using in vitro and genome-wide methylation assays. Results Our data present evidence for a loss-of-function mechanism of SETD1B variants, resulting in a core clinical phenotype of global developmental delay, language delay including regression, intellectual disability, autism and other behavioral issues, and variable epilepsy phenotypes. Developmental delay appeared to precede seizure onset, suggesting SETD1B dysfunction impacts physiological neurodevelopment even in the absence of epileptic activity. Males are significantly overrepresented and more severely affected, and we speculate that sex-linked traits could affect susceptibility to penetrance and the clinical spectrum of SETD1B variants. Conclusion Insights from this extensive cohort will facilitate the counseling regarding the molecular and phenotypic landscape of newly diagnosed patients with the SETD1B-related syndrome