How Low Can We Go? The Implications of Delayed Ratcheting and Negative Emissions Technologies on Achieving Well Below 2 °C

Pledges embodied in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) represent an interim step from a global “no policy” path towards an optimal long-term global mitigation path. However, the goals of the Paris Agreement highlight that current pledges are insufficient. It is, therefore, necessary to ratchet-up parties’ future mitigation pledges in the near-term. The ambitious goals of remaining well below 2 °C and pursuing reductions towards 1.5 °C mean that any delay in ratcheting-up commitments could be extremely costly or may even make the targets unachievable. In this chapter, we consider the impacts of delaying ratcheting until 2030 on global emissions trajectories towards 2 °C and 1.5 °C, and the role of offsets via negative emissions technologies (NETs). The analysis suggests that delaying action makes pursuing the 1.5 °C goal especially difficult without extremely high levels of negative emissions technologies (NETs), such as carbon capture and storage combined with bioenergy (BECCS). Depending on the availability of biomass, other NETs beyond BECCS will be required. Policymakers must also realise that the outlook for fossil fuels are closely linked to the prospects for NETs. If NETs cannot be scaled, the levels of fossil fuels suggested in this analysis are not compatible with the Paris Agreement goals i.e. there are risks of lock-in to a high fossil future. Decision makers must, therefore, comprehend fully the risks of different strategies

Association of metabolic equivalent of task (MET) score in length of stay in hospital following radical cystectomy with urinary diversion:a multi-institutional study

PURPOSE: The Metabolic equivalent of task (MET) score is used in patients’ preoperative functional capacity assessment. It is commonly thought that patients with a higher MET score will have better postoperative outcomes than patients with a lower MET score. However, such a link remains the subject of debate and is yet unvalidated in major urological surgery. This study aimed to explore the association of patients’ MET score with their postoperative outcomes following radical cystectomy. METHODS: We used records-linkage methodology with unique identifiers (Community Health Index/hospital number) and electronic databases to assess postoperative outcomes of patients who had underwent radical cystectomies between 2015 and 2020. The outcome measure was patients’ length of hospital stay. This was compared with multiple basic characteristics such as age, sex, MET score and comorbid conditions. A MET score of less than four (< 4) is taken as the threshold for a poor functional capacity. We conducted unadjusted and adjusted Cox regression analyses for time to discharge against MET score. RESULTS: A total of 126 patients were included in the analysis. Mean age on date of operation was 66.2 (SD 12.2) years and 49 (38.9%) were female. A lower MET score was associated with a statistically significant lower time-dependent risk of hospital discharge (i.e. longer hospital stay) when adjusted for covariates (HR 0.224; 95% CI 0.077–0.652; p = 0.006). Older age (adjusted HR 0.531; 95% CI 0.332–0.848; p = 0.008) and postoperative complications (adjusted HR 0.503; 95% CI 0.323–0.848; p = 0.002) were also found to be associated with longer hospital stay. Other comorbid conditions, BMI, disease staging and 30-day all-cause mortality were statistically insignificant. CONCLUSION: A lower MET score in this cohort of patients was associated with a longer hospital stay length following radical cystectomy with urinary diversion. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11255-021-02813-x

Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets

Several major economies rely heavily on fossil-fuel production and exports, yet current low-carbon technology diffusion, energy efficiency and climate policy may be substantially reducing global demand for fossil fuels.1-4 This trend is inconsistent with observed investment in new fossil-fuel ventures1,2, which could become stranded as a result. Here we use an integrated global economy environment simulation model to study the macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets (SFFA). Our analysis suggests that part of the SFFA would occur as a result of an already ongoing technological trajectory, irrespective of whether new climate policies are adopted or not; the loss would be amplified if new climate policies to reach the 2°C target are adopted and/or if low-cost producers (some OPEC countries) maintain their level of production (‘sell-out’) despite declining demand; the magnitude of the loss from SFFA may amount to a discounted global wealth loss of $1-4tn; and there are clear distributional impacts, with winners (e.g. net importers such as China or the EU) and losers (e.g. Russia, the US or Canada, which could see their fossil-fuel industries nearly shut down), although the two effects would largely offset each other at the level of aggregate global GDP.The authors acknowledge C-EERNG and Cambridge Econometrics for support, and funding from EPSRC (JFM, fellowship no. EP/ K007254/1); the Newton Fund (JFM, PS, JV, EPSRC grant no EP/N002504/1 and ESRC grant no ES/N013174/1), NERC (NRE, PH, HP, grant no NE/P015093/1), CONICYT (PS), the Philomathia Foundation (JV), the Cambridge Humanities Research Grants Scheme (JV), and Horizon 2020 (HP, JFM; Sim4Nexus project)

Immunolocalization of the Nuk receptor tyrosine kinase suggests roles in segmental patterning of the brain and axonogenesis

Neural kinase (Nuk) encodes a murine receptor-like tyrosine kinase belonging to the Eph/Elk/Eck family. Protein localization studies indicate that during early embryogenesis Nuk is confined to the developing nervous system, where it marks segments along the axis of the neural tube in the hindbrain (rhombomeres r2, r3 and r5) and specific morphological bulges of the midbrain and forebrain. Subcellular localization of Nuk indicates that this receptor is concentrated at sites of cell-cell contact, often involving migrating neuronal cells or their extensions. Most notably, high levels of Nuk protein are found within initial axon outgrowths and associated nerve fibers. The axonal localization of Nuk is transient and is not detected after migrations have ceased, suggesting a role for this tyrosine kinase during the early pathfinding and/or fasciculation stages of axonogenesis. The subcellular localization of Nuk, as well as the presence of fibronectin type III and immunoglobulin-like adhesive domains on the extracellular region, suggest this receptor tyrosine kinase may function to regulate specific cell-cell interactions during early development of the murine nervous system