On Using Curvature to Demonstrate Stability

A new approach for demonstrating the global stability of ordinary differential equations is given. It is shown that if the curvature of solutions is bounded on some set, then any nonconstant orbits that remain in the set, must contain points that lie some minimum distance apart from each other. This is used to establish a negative-criterion for periodic orbits. This is extended to give a method of proving an equilibrium to be globally stable. The approach can also be used to rule out the sudden appearance of large-amplitude periodic orbits

Global Stability for an SEIR Epidemiological Model with Varying Infectivity and Infinite Delay

A recent paper (Math. Biosci. and Eng. (2008) 5:389-402) presented an SEIR model using an infinite delay to account for varying infectivity. The analysis in that paper did not resolve the global dynamics for R0 \u3e 1. Here, we show that the endemic equilibrium is globally stable for R0 \u3e 1. The proof uses a Lyapunov functional that includes an integral over all previous states

Lyapunov Functions for Tuberculosis Models with Fast and Slow Progression

The spread of tuberculosis is studied through two models which include fast and slow progression to the infected class. For each model, Lyapunov functions are used to show that when the basic reproduction number is less than or equal to one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and when it is greater than one there is an endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable

Global Stability of an SIR Epidemic Model with Delay and General Nonlinear Incidence

An SIR model with distributed delay and a general incidence function is studied. Conditions are given under which the system exhibits threshold behaviour: the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 \u3c 1 and globally attracting if R0 = 1; if R0 \u3e 1, then the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. The global stability proofs use a Lyapunov functional and do not require uniform persistence to be shown a priori. It is shown that the given conditions are satisfied by several common forms of the incidence function

Stability Implications of Bendixson’s Criterion

This note presents a proof that the omega limit set of a solution to a planar system satisfying the Bendixson criterion is either empty or is a single equilibrium. The proof involves elementary techniques which should be accessible to senior undergraduates and graduate students

Equivalent embeddings of the dynamics on an invariant manifold

AbstractA dynamical system admitting an invariant manifold can be interpreted as a single element of an infinite class of dynamical systems that all exhibit the same behaviour on the invariant manifold. This observation is used in the context of autonomous ordinary differential equations to generalize a global stability result of Li and Muldowney. The new result is demonstrated on an epidemiological model

An Sveir Model for Assessing Potential Impact of an Imperfect Anti-SARS Vaccine

The control of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), a fatal contagious viral disease that spread to over 32 countries in 2003, was based on quarantine of latently infected individuals and isolation of individuals with clinical symptoms of SARS. Owing to the recent ongoing clinical trials of some candidate anti-SARS vaccines, this study aims to assess, via mathematical modelling, the potential impact of a SARS vaccine, assumed to be imperfect, in curtailing future outbreaks. A relatively simple deterministic model is designed for this purpose. It is shown, using Lyapunov function theory and the theory of compound matrices, that the dynamics of the model are determined by a certain threshold quantity known as the control reproduction number (Rv). If Rv ≤ 1, the disease will be eliminated from the community; whereas an epidemic occurs if Rv \u3e 1. This study further shows that an imperfect SARS vaccine with infection-blocking efficacy is always beneficial in reducing disease spread within the community, although its overall impact increases with increasing efficacy and coverage. In particular, it is shown that the fraction of individuals vaccinated at steady-state and vaccine efficacy play equal roles in reducing disease burden, and the vaccine must have efficacy of at least 75% to lead to effective control of SARS (assuming R0 = 4). Numerical simulations are used to explore the severity of outbreaks when Rv \u3e 1

Stability analysis of non-autonomous reaction-diffusion systems: the effects of growing domains

By using asymptotic theory, we generalise the Turing diffusively-driven instability conditions for reaction-diffusion systems with slow, isotropic domain growth. There are two fundamental biological differences between the Turing conditions on fixed and growing domains, namely: (i) we need not enforce cross nor pure kinetic conditions and (ii) the restriction to activator-inhibitor kinetics to induce pattern formation on a growing biological system is no longer a requirement. Our theoretical findings are confirmed and reinforced by numerical simulations for the special cases of isotropic linear, exponential and logistic growth profiles. In particular we illustrate an example of a reaction-diffusion system which cannot exhibit a diffusively-driven instability on a fixed domain but is unstable in the presence of slow growth

Increasing frailty is associated with higher prevalence and reduced recognition of delirium in older hospitalised inpatients: results of a multi-centre study

Purpose Delirium is a neuropsychiatric disorder delineated by an acute change in cognition, attention, and consciousness. It is common, particularly in older adults, but poorly recognised. Frailty is the accumulation of deficits conferring an increased risk of adverse outcomes. We set out to determine how severity of frailty, as measured using the CFS, affected delirium rates, and recognition in hospitalised older people in the United Kingdom. Methods Adults over 65 years were included in an observational multi-centre audit across UK hospitals, two prospective rounds, and one retrospective note review. Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), delirium status, and 30-day outcomes were recorded. Results The overall prevalence of delirium was 16.3% (483). Patients with delirium were more frail than patients without delirium (median CFS 6 vs 4). The risk of delirium was greater with increasing frailty [OR 2.9 (1.8–4.6) in CFS 4 vs 1–3; OR 12.4 (6.2–24.5) in CFS 8 vs 1–3]. Higher CFS was associated with reduced recognition of delirium (OR of 0.7 (0.3–1.9) in CFS 4 compared to 0.2 (0.1–0.7) in CFS 8). These risks were both independent of age and dementia. Conclusion We have demonstrated an incremental increase in risk of delirium with increasing frailty. This has important clinical implications, suggesting that frailty may provide a more nuanced measure of vulnerability to delirium and poor outcomes. However, the most frail patients are least likely to have their delirium diagnosed and there is a significant lack of research into the underlying pathophysiology of both of these common geriatric syndromes