A Mathematical Framework for Estimating Pathogen Transmission Fitness and Inoculum Size Using Data from a Competitive Mixtures Animal Model

We present a method to measure the relative transmissibility (“transmission fitness”) of one strain of a pathogen compared to another. The model is applied to data from “competitive mixtures” experiments in which animals are co-infected with a mixture of two strains. We observe the mixture in each animal over time and over multiple generations of transmission. We use data from influenza experiments in ferrets to demonstrate the approach. Assessment of the relative transmissibility between two strains of influenza is important in at least three contexts: 1) Within the human population antigenically novel strains of influenza arise and compete for susceptible hosts. 2) During a pandemic event, a novel sub-type of influenza competes with the existing seasonal strain(s). The unfolding epidemiological dynamics are dependent upon both the population's susceptibility profile and the inherent transmissibility of the novel strain compared to the existing strain(s). 3) Neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs), while providing significant potential to reduce transmission of influenza, exert selective pressure on the virus and so promote the emergence of drug-resistant strains. Any adverse outcome due to selection and subsequent spread of an NAI-resistant strain is exquisitely dependent upon the transmission fitness of that strain. Measurement of the transmission fitness of two competing strains of influenza is thus of critical importance in determining the likely time-course and epidemiology of an influenza outbreak, or the potential impact of an intervention measure such as NAI distribution. The mathematical framework introduced here also provides an estimate for the size of the transmitted inoculum. We demonstrate the framework's behaviour using data from ferret transmission studies, and through simulation suggest how to optimise experimental design for assessment of transmissibility. The method introduced here for assessment of mixed transmission events has applicability beyond influenza, to other viral and bacterial pathogens

Impact of Emerging Antiviral Drug Resistance on Influenza Containment and Spread: Influence of Subclinical Infection and Strategic Use of a Stockpile Containing One or Two Drugs

BACKGROUND: Wide-scale use of antiviral agents in the event of an influenza pandemic is likely to promote the emergence of drug resistance, with potentially deleterious effects for outbreak control. We explored factors promoting resistance within a dynamic infection model, and considered ways in which one or two drugs might be distributed to delay the spread of resistant strains or mitigate their impact. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We have previously developed a novel deterministic model of influenza transmission that simulates treatment and targeted contact prophylaxis, using a limited stockpile of antiviral agents. This model was extended to incorporate subclinical infections, and the emergence of resistant virus strains under the selective pressure imposed by various uses of one or two antiviral agents. For a fixed clinical attack rate, R(0) rises with the proportion of subclinical infections thus reducing the number of infections amenable to treatment or prophylaxis. In consequence, outbreak control is more difficult, but emergence of drug resistance is relatively uncommon. Where an epidemic may be constrained by use of a single antiviral agent, strategies that combine treatment and prophylaxis are most effective at controlling transmission, at the cost of facilitating the spread of resistant viruses. If two drugs are available, using one drug for treatment and the other for prophylaxis is more effective at preventing propagation of mutant strains than either random allocation or drug cycling strategies. Our model is relatively straightforward, and of necessity makes a number of simplifying assumptions. Our results are, however, consistent with the wider body of work in this area and are able to place related research in context while extending the analysis of resistance emergence and optimal drug use within the constraints of a finite drug stockpile. CONCLUSIONS: Combined treatment and prophylaxis represents optimal use of antiviral agents to control transmission, at the cost of drug resistance. Where two drugs are available, allocating different drugs to cases and contacts is likely to be most effective at constraining resistance emergence in a pandemic scenario

Comparison of contact patterns relevant for transmission of respiratory pathogens in Thailand and the Netherlands using respondent-driven sampling

Understanding infection dynamics of respiratory diseases requires the identification and quantification of behavioural, social and environmental factors that permit the transmission of these infections between humans. Little empirical information is available about contact patterns within real-world social networks, let alone on differences in these contact networks between populations that differ considerably on a socio-cultural level. Here we compared contact network data that were collected in the Netherlands and Thailand using a similar online respondent-driven method. By asking participants to recruit contact persons we studied network links relevant for the transmission of respiratory infections. We studied correlations between recruiter and recruited contacts to investigate mixing patterns in the observed social network components. In both countries, mixing patterns were assortative by demographic variables and random by total numbers of contacts. However, in Thailand participants reported overall more contacts which resulted in higher effective contact rates. Our findings provide new insights on numbers of contacts and mixing patterns in two different populations. These data could be used to improve parameterisation of mathematical models used to design control strategies. Although the spread of infections through populations depends on more factors, found similarities suggest that spread may be similar in the Netherlands and Thailand

A new conceptual framework for maternal morbidity

© 2018 World Health Organization; licensed by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Background: Globally, there is greater awareness of the plight of women who have complications associated with pregnancy or childbirth and who may continue to experience long-term problems. In addition, the health of women and their ability to perform economic and social functions are central to the Sustainable Development Goals. Methods: In 2012, WHO began an initiative to standardize the definition, conceptualization, and assessment of maternal morbidity. The culmination of this work was a conceptual framework: the Maternal Morbidity Measurement (MMM) Framework. Results: The framework underscores the broad ramifications of maternal morbidity and highlights what types of measurement are needed to capture what matters to women, service providers, and policy makers. Using examples from the literature, we explain the framework's principles and its most important elements. Conclusions: We express the need for comprehensive research and detailed longitudinal studies of women from early pregnancy to the extended postpartum period to understand how health and symptoms and signs of ill health change. With respect to interventions, there may be gaps in healthcare provision for women with chronic conditions and who are about to conceive. Women also require continuity of care at the primary care level beyond the customary 6 weeks postpartum

Antiviral resistance during pandemic influenza: implications for stockpiling and drug use

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The anticipated extent of antiviral use during an influenza pandemic can have adverse consequences for the development of drug resistance and rationing of limited stockpiles. The strategic use of drugs is therefore a major public health concern in planning for effective pandemic responses.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We employed a mathematical model that includes both sensitive and resistant strains of a virus with pandemic potential, and applies antiviral drugs for treatment of clinical infections. Using estimated parameters in the published literature, the model was simulated for various sizes of stockpiles to evaluate the outcome of different antiviral strategies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We demonstrated that the emergence of highly transmissible resistant strains has no significant impact on the use of available stockpiles if treatment is maintained at low levels or the reproduction number of the sensitive strain is sufficiently high. However, moderate to high treatment levels can result in a more rapid depletion of stockpiles, leading to run-out, by promoting wide-spread drug resistance. We applied an antiviral strategy that delays the onset of aggressive treatment for a certain amount of time after the onset of the outbreak. Our results show that if high treatment levels are enforced too early during the outbreak, a second wave of infections can potentially occur with a substantially larger magnitude. However, a timely implementation of wide-scale treatment can prevent resistance spread in the population, and minimize the final size of the pandemic.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results reveal that conservative treatment levels during the early stages of the outbreak, followed by a timely increase in the scale of drug-use, will offer an effective strategy to manage drug resistance in the population and avoid run-out. For a 1918-like strain, the findings suggest that pandemic plans should consider stockpiling antiviral drugs to cover at least 20% of the population.</p

Effective, Robust Design of Community Mitigation for Pandemic Influenza: A Systematic Examination of Proposed US Guidance

BACKGROUND: The US government proposes pandemic influenza mitigation guidance that includes isolation and antiviral treatment of ill persons, voluntary household member quarantine and antiviral prophylaxis, social distancing of individuals, school closure, reduction of contacts at work, and prioritized vaccination. Is this the best strategy combination? Is choice of this strategy robust to pandemic uncertainties? What are critical enablers of community resilience? METHODS AND FINDINGS: We systematically simulate a broad range of pandemic scenarios and mitigation strategies using a networked, agent-based model of a community of explicit, multiply-overlapping social contact networks. We evaluate illness and societal burden for alterations in social networks, illness parameters, or intervention implementation. For a 1918-like pandemic, the best strategy minimizes illness to <1% of the population and combines network-based (e.g. school closure, social distancing of all with adults' contacts at work reduced), and case-based measures (e.g. antiviral treatment of the ill and prophylaxis of household members). We find choice of this best strategy robust to removal of enhanced transmission by the young, additional complexity in contact networks, and altered influenza natural history including extended viral shedding. Administration of age-group or randomly targeted 50% effective pre-pandemic vaccine with 7% population coverage (current US H5N1 vaccine stockpile) had minimal effect on outcomes. In order, mitigation success depends on rapid strategy implementation, high compliance, regional mitigation, and rigorous rescinding criteria; these are the critical enablers for community resilience. CONCLUSIONS: Systematic evaluation of feasible, recommended pandemic influenza interventions generally confirms the US community mitigation guidance yields best strategy choices for pandemic planning that are robust to a wide range of uncertainty. The best strategy combines network- and case-based interventions; network-based interventions are paramount. Because strategies must be applied rapidly, regionally, and stringently for greatest benefit, preparation and public education is required for long-lasting, high community compliance during a pandemic

Sexual life and dysfunction after maternal morbidity: A systematic review

© 2015 Andreucci et al. Background: Because there is a lack of knowledge on the long-term consequences of maternal morbidity/near miss episodes on women's sexual life and function we conducted a systematic review with the purpose of identifying the available evidence on any sexual impairment associated with complications from pregnancy and childbirth. Methods: Systematic review on aspects of women sexual life after any maternal morbidity and/or maternal near miss, during different time periods after delivery. The search was carried out until May 22nd, 2015 including studies published from 1995 to 2015. No language or study design restrictions were applied. Maternal morbidity as exposure was split into general or severe/near miss. Female sexual outcomes evaluated were dyspareunia, Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI) scores and time to resume sexual activity after childbirth. Qualitative syntheses for outcomes were provided whenever possible. Results: A total of 2,573 studies were initially identified, and 14 were included for analysis after standard selection procedures for systematic review. General morbidity was mainly related to major perineal injury (3rd or 4th degree laceration, 12 studies). A clear pattern for severity evaluation of maternal morbidity could not be distinguished, unless when a maternal near miss concept was used. Women experiencing maternal morbidity had more frequently dyspareunia and resumed sexual activity later, when compared to women without morbidity. There were no differences in FSFI scores between groups. Meta-analysis could not be performed, since included studies were too heterogeneous regarding study design, evaluation of exposure and/or outcome and time span. Conclusion: Investigation of long-term repercussions on women's sexual life aspects after maternal morbidity has been scarcely performed, however indicating worse outcomes for those experiencing morbidity. Further standardized evaluation of these conditions among maternal morbidity survivors may provide relevant information for clinical follow-up and reproductive planning for women

The impact of hypertension, hemorrhage, and other maternal morbidities on functioning in the postpartum period as assessed by the WHODAS 2.0 36-item tool

© 2018 World Health Organization; licensed by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Objective: To assess the scores of postpartum women using the WHO Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 36-item tool (WHODAS-36), considering different morbidities. Methods: Secondary analysis of a retrospective cohort of women who delivered at a referral maternity in Brazil and were classified with and without severe maternal morbidity (SMM). WHODAS-36 was used to assess functioning in postpartum women. Percentile distribution of total WHODAS score was compared across three groups: Percentile (P)90. Cases of SMM were categorized and WHODAS-36 score was assessed according to hypertension, hemorrhage, or other conditions. Results: A total of 638 women were enrolled: 64 had mean scores below P90 (41.3). Of women scoring above P>90, those with morbidity had a higher mean score than those without (44.6% vs 36.8%, P=0.879). Women with higher WHODAS-36 scores presented more complications during pregnancy, especially hypertension (47.0% vs 37.5%, P=0.09). Mean scores among women with any complication were higher than those with no morbidity (19.0 vs 14.2, P=0.01). WHODAS-36 scores were higher among women with hypertensive complications (19.9 vs 16.0, P=0.004), but lower among those with hemorrhagic complications (13.8 vs 17.7, P=0.09). Conclusions: Complications during pregnancy, childbirth, and the puerperium increase long-term WHODAS-36 scores, demonstrating a persistent impact on functioning among women, up to 5 years postpartum

Validation of the WHO Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS 2.0) 12-item tool against the 36-item version for measuring functioning and disability associated with pregnancy and history of severe maternal morbidity

© 2018 World Health Organization; licensed by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Objective: To validate the WHO Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0) 12-item tool against the 36-item version for measuring functioning and disability associated with pregnancy and the occurrence of maternal morbidity. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of the Brazilian retrospective cohort study on long-term repercussions of severe maternal morbidity (SMM) among women who delivered at a tertiary facility (COMMAG study). We compared WHODAS-12 and WHODAS-36 scores of women with and without SMM using measures of central tendency and variability, tests for instruments’ agreement (Bland-Altman plot), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and Cronbach alpha coefficient for internal consistency. Results: The COMMAG study enrolled 638 women up to 5 years postpartum. Although the median WHODAS-36 and -12 scores for all women were statistically different (13.04 and 11.76, respectively; P<0.001), there was a strong linear correlation between them. Furthermore, the mean difference and the differences in variance analyses demonstrated agreement of total scores between the two versions. CFA demonstrated how the WHODAS-12 questions are divided into six previously defined factors and Cronbach alpha showed good internal consistency. Conclusion: WHODAS-12 demonstrated agreement with WHODAS-36 for total score and was a good instrument for screening functioning and disability among postpartum women, with and without SMM