The WRF Lightning Forecast Algorithm: Sensitivities to Microphysics and Other Physics Schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

No abstract availabl

Comparison of Lidar Backscatter with Particle Distribution and GOES-7 Data in Hurricane Juliette

Measurements of calibrated backscatter, using two continuous wave Doppler lidars operating at wavelengths 9.1 and 10.6 micrometers were obtained along with cloud particle size distributions in Hurricane Juliette on 21 September 1995 at altitude approximately 11.7 km. Agreement between backscatter from the two lidars and with the cloud particle size distribution is excellent. Features in backscatter and particle number density compare well with concurrent GOES-7 infrared images

Analysis of relevant technical issues and deficiencies of the existing sensors and related initiatives currently set and working in marine environment. New generation technologies for cost-effective sensors

The last decade has seen significant growth in the field of sensor networks, which are currently collecting large amounts of environmental data. This data needs to be collected, processed, stored and made available for analysis and interpretation in a manner which is meaningful and accessible to end users and stakeholders with a range of requirements, including government agencies, environmental agencies, the research community, industry users and the public. The COMMONSENSE project aims to develop and provide cost-effective, multi-functional innovative sensors to perform reliable in-situ measurements in the marine environment. The sensors will be easily usable across several platforms, and will focus on key parameters including eutrophication, heavy metal contaminants, marine litter (microplastics) and underwater noise descriptors of the MSFD. The aims of Tasks 2.1 and 2.2 which comprise the work of this deliverable are: • To obtain a comprehensive understanding and an up-to-date state of the art of existing sensors. • To provide a working basis on “new generation” technologies in order to develop cost-effective sensors suitable for large-scale production. This deliverable will consist of an analysis of state-of-the-art solutions for the different sensors and data platforms related with COMMONSENSE project. An analysis of relevant technical issues and deficiencies of existing sensors and related initiatives currently set and working in marine environment will be performed. Existing solutions will be studied to determine the main limitations to be considered during novel sensor developments in further WP’s. Objectives & Rationale The objectives of deliverable 2.1 are: • To create a solid and robust basis for finding cheaper and innovative ways of gathering data. This is preparatory for the activities in other WPs: for WP4 (Transversal Sensor development and Sensor Integration), for WP(5-8) (Novel Sensors) to develop cost-effective sensors suitable for large-scale production, reducing costs of data collection (compared to commercially available sensors), increasing data access availability for WP9 (Field testing) when the deployment of new sensors will be drawn and then realized

Postoperative delirium in patients with head and neck oral cancer in the West of Scotland

Our aims were to determine the prevalence and association of postoperative delirium (POD) in head and neck (H&N) cancer patients undergoing free flap reconstruction at the oral and maxillofacial surgery (OMFS) unit, Queen Elizabeth University Hospital (QEUH) Glasgow, and to assess whether these determinants can be modified to optimise patient care and reduce the occurrence of POD. Delirium remains an important problem in the postoperative care of patients undergoing major H&N surgery, and early detection and management improve overall outcomes. The patient database containing details of the preoperative physical status (including alcohol misuse, chronic comorbidity, and physiological status) of 1006 patients who underwent major H&N surgery with free-flap repair at the QEUH from 2009-2019, was analysed. Factors associated with delirium were studied, identifying univariate associations as well as multivariate models to determine independent risk factors. The incidence of POD was 7.5% (75/1006; 53 male:22 female; mean (SD) age 65.41 (13.16) years). POD was strongly associated with pre-existing medical comorbidities, excess alcohol, smoking, a prolonged surgical operating time (more than 700 minutes), tracheostomy, blood transfusion, and bony free flaps. Those with POD were at an increased risk of postoperative wound and lung complications, and were more likely to require a hospital stay of more than 21 days. Presurgical assessment should identify risk factors to optimise the diagnosis and treatment of POD, and will enhance patient care by reducing further medical and surgical complications, and overall hospital stay

Protocols for the field testing

The COMMON SENSE project has been designed and planned in order to meet the general and specific scientific and technical objectives mentioned in its Description of Work (page 77). In an overall strategy of the work plan, work packages (11) can be grouped into 3 key phases: (1) RD basis for cost-effective sensor development, (2) Sensor development, sensor web platform and integration, and (3) Field testing. In the first two phases WP1 and WP2 partners have provided a general understanding and integrated basis for a cost effective sensors development. Within the following WPs 4 to 8 the new sensors are created and integrated into different identified platforms. During the third phase 3, characterized by WP9, partners will deploy precompetitive prototypes at chosen platforms (e.g. research vessels, oil platforms, buoys and submerged moorings, ocean racing yachts, drifting buoys). Starting from August 2015 (month 22; task 9.2), these platforms will allow the partnership to test the adaptability and performance of the in-situ sensors and verify if the transmission of data is properly made, correcting deviations. In task 9.1 all stakeholders identified in WP2, and other relevant agents, have been contacted in order to close a coordinated agenda for the field testing phase for each of the platforms. Field testing procedures (WP2) and deployment specificities, defined during sensor development in WPs 4 to 8, are closely studied by all stakeholders involved in field testing activities in order for everyone to know their role, how to proceed and to provide themselves with the necessary material and equipment (e.g. transport of instruments). All this information will provide the basis for designing and coordinating field testing activities. Type and characteristics of the system (vessel or mooring, surface or deep, open sea or coastal area, duration, etc.), used for the field testing activities, are planned comprising the indicators included in the above-mentioned descriptors, taking into account that they must of interest for eutrophication, concentration of contaminants, marine litter and underwater noise. In order to obtain the necessary information, two tables were realized starting from the information acquired for D2.2 delivered in June 2014. One table was created for sensor developers and one for those partners that will test the sensors at sea. The six developers in COMMON SENSE have provided information on the seven sensors: CEFAS and IOPAN for underwater noise; IDRONAUT and LEITAT for microplastics; CSIC for an innovative piro and piezo resistive polymeric temperature and pressure and for heavy metal; DCU for the eutrophication sensor. This information is anyway incomplete because in most cases the novel sensors are still far to be ready and will be developed over the course of COMMON SENSE. So the sensors cannot be clearly designed yet and, consequently, technical characteristics cannot still be perfectly defined. This produces some lag in the acquired information and, consequently, in the planning of their testing on specific platforms that will be solved in the near future. In the table for Testers, partners have provided information on fifteen available platforms. Specific answers have been given on number and type of sensors on each platforms, their availability and technical characteristics, compatibility issues and, very important when new sensors are tested, comparative measurements to be implemented to verify them. Finally IOPAN has described two more platforms, a motorboat not listed in the DoW, but already introduced in D2.2, and their oceanographic buoy in the Gdansk Bay that was previously unavailable. The same availability now is present for the OBSEA Underwater observatory from CSIC, while their Aqualog undulating mooring is still not ready for use. In the following months, new information on sensors and platforms will be provided and the planning of testing activities will improve. Further updates of this report will be therefore necessary in order to individuate the most suitable platforms to test each kind of sensor. Objectives and rationale The objective of deliverable 9.1 is the definition of field testing procedures (WP2), the study of deployment specificities during sensor development work packages (from WP4 to WP8) and the preparation of protocols. This with the participation of all stakeholders involved in field testing activities in order for everyone to know their role, how to proceed and to provide themselves with the necessary material and equipment

Field testing, validation and optimization report

The COMMON SENSE project has been designed and planned in order to meet the general and specific scientific and technical objectives mentioned in its Description of Work (page 77). As the overall strategy, the 11 work packages (WPs) of the work plan were grouped into 3 key phases: (1) RD basis for cost-effective sensor development , (2) Sensor development, sensor web platform and integration, and (3) Field testing. In the first two phases, partners involved in WP1 and WP2 have provided a general understanding and integrated basis for a cost effective sensors development. Within the following WPs 4 to 8 the new sensors were created and integrated into different identified platforms. During the third phase of field testing (WP9), partners have deployed precompetitive prototypes at chosen platforms (e.g. research vessels, oil platforms, buoys and submerged moorings, ocean racing yachts, drifting buoys). Starting from August 2015 (month 22; task 9.2), these platforms have allowed the partnership to test the adaptability and performance of the in-situ sensors and verify if the transmission of data is properly made, correcting deviations. In task 9.1 all stakeholders identified in WP2 have been contacted in order to agree upon a coordinated agenda for the field testing phase for each of the platforms. Field testing procedures (WP2) and deployment specificities, defined during sensor development in WPs 4 to 8, have been closely studied by all stakeholders involved in field testing activities in order for everyone to know their role, how to proceed and to provide themselves with the necessary material and equipment (e.g. transport of instruments). All this information have provided the basis for designing and coordinating field testing activities. Subsequently, the available new sensors have been tested since August 2015 till mid-October of the current year (2016) as part of task 9.2, following the indications defined in D9.1, such as the intercomparison of the new sensors with commercial ones, when possible. The availability of new sensors was quite different in time starting with the first tests in September and October 2015 on noise, nutrient and heavy metals sensors and closing with pCO2 in late September 2016. Sensors are technically fully described in the deliverables of WPs 3 to 8 and are here just mentioned where necessary. For further details, please consider those reports. Objectives and rationale The protocols prepared in D9.1 have been verified during the field testing activities of the innovative sensors on platforms. These can be summarized into 3 categories: (1) Research vessels (regular cruises); (2) Fixed platforms; (3) Ocean racing yachts. An exhaustive analysis of the different data obtained during field testing activities has been carried on in order to set possible optimization actions for prototypes design and performances. The data from each platform have been analyzed to verify limits and optimal installations or possible improvements. Finally a set of possible optimization actions has been defined. Data and observations collected during the course of field testing have been used to iteratively optimize the design and performance of the precompetitive prototypes

Oral health status of adults in Southern Vietnam - a cross-sectional epidemiological study

Contains fulltext : 89929.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Before strategies or protocols for oral health care can be advised at population level, epidemiological information on tooth decay patterns and its effects on oral function are indispensable. The aim of this study was to investigate influences of socio-demographic variables on the prevalence of decayed, missing, filled (DMF) and sound teeth (St) and to determine the relative risk of teeth in different dental regions for D, M, and F, of adults living in urban and rural areas in Southern Vietnam. METHODS: Cross-sectional DMF and St data of 2965 dentate subjects aged 20 to 95 living in urban and rural areas in three provinces were collected by means of a self-administered questionnaire and an oral examination. The sample was stratified by age, gender, residence and province. RESULTS: The percentage of subjects having missing teeth was high for all ages while it was low for subjects with decayed and filled teeth. The mean number of missing teeth increased gradually by age from approximately 1 in each jaw at the age of 20 to 8 at the age of 80. The number of decayed teeth was relative low at all ages, being highest in molars at young ages. The mean number of filled teeth was extremely low at all ages in all dental regions. Every additional year of age gives a significantly lower chance for decay, a higher chance for missing, and a lower chance for filled teeth. Molars had a significantly higher risk for decay, missing and filled than premolars and anterior teeth. Females had significantly higher risk for decayed and filled teeth, and less chance for missing teeth than males. Urban subjects presented lower risk for decay, but approximately 4 times greater chance for having fillings than rural subjects. Low socio-economic status (SES) significantly increased the chance for missing anterior and molar teeth; subjects with high SES had more often fillings. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of adults of Southern Vietnam presented a reduced dentition. The combination of low numbers of filled teeth and relative high numbers of decayed and missing teeth indicates that the main treatment for decay is extraction. Molars are more at risk for being decayed or missing than premolars and anterior teeth

When we should worry more: Using cognitive bias modification to drive adaptive health behaviour

A lack of behavioural engagement in health promotion or disease prevention is a problem across many health domains. In these cases where people face a genuine danger, a reduced focus on threat and low levels of anxiety or worry are maladaptive in terms of promoting protection or prevention behaviour. Therefore, it is possible that increasing the processing of threat will increase worry and thereby enhance engagement in adaptive behaviour. Laboratory studies have shown that cognitive bias modification (CBM) can increase or decrease anxiety and worry when increased versus decreased processing of threat is encouraged. In the current study, CBM for interpretation (CBM-I) is used to target engagement in sun protection behaviour. The goal was to investigate whether inducing a negative rather than a positive interpretation bias for physical threat information can enhance worry elicited when viewing a health campaign video (warning against melanoma skin cancer), and consequently lead to more adaptive behaviour (sun protection). Participants were successfully trained to either adopt a positive or negative interpretation bias using physical threat scenarios. However, contrary to expectations results showed that participants in the positive training condition reported higher levels of worry elicited by the melanoma video than participants in the negative training condition. Video elicited worry was, however, positively correlated with a measure of engagement in sun protection behaviour, suggesting that higher levels of worry do promote adaptive behaviour. These findings imply that more research is needed to determine under which conditions increased versus decreased processing of threat can drive adaptive worry. Various potential explanations for the current findings and suggestions for future research are discussed

Geomorphic and stratigraphic evidence for an unusual tsunami or storm a few centuries ago at Anegada, British Virgin Islands

© The Author(s), 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Natural Hazards 63 (2012): 51-84, doi:10.1007/s11069-010-9622-6.Waters from the Atlantic Ocean washed southward across parts of Anegada, east-northeast of Puerto Rico, during a singular event a few centuries ago. The overwash, after crossing a fringing coral reef and 1.5 km of shallow subtidal flats, cut dozens of breaches through sandy beach ridges, deposited a sheet of sand and shell capped with lime mud, and created inland fields of cobbles and boulders. Most of the breaches extend tens to hundreds of meters perpendicular to a 2-km stretch of Anegada’s windward shore. Remnants of the breached ridges stand 3 m above modern sea level, and ridges seaward of the breaches rise 2.2–3.0 m high. The overwash probably exceeded those heights when cutting the breaches by overtopping and incision of the beach ridges. Much of the sand-and-shell sheet contains pink bioclastic sand that resembles, in grain size and composition, the sand of the breached ridges. This sand extends as much as 1.5 km to the south of the breached ridges. It tapers southward from a maximum thickness of 40 cm, decreases in estimated mean grain size from medium sand to very fine sand, and contains mud laminae in the south. The sand-and-shell sheet also contains mollusks—cerithid gastropods and the bivalve Anomalocardia—and angular limestone granules and pebbles. The mollusk shells and the lime-mud cap were probably derived from a marine pond that occupied much of Anegada’s interior at the time of overwash. The boulders and cobbles, nearly all composed of limestone, form fields that extend many tens of meters generally southward from limestone outcrops as much as 0.8 km from the nearest shore. Soon after the inferred overwash, the marine pond was replaced by hypersaline ponds that produce microbial mats and evaporite crusts. This environmental change, which has yet to be reversed, required restriction of a former inlet or inlets, the location of which was probably on the island’s south (lee) side. The inferred overwash may have caused restriction directly by washing sand into former inlets, or indirectly by reducing the tidal prism or supplying sand to post-overwash currents and waves. The overwash happened after A.D. 1650 if coeval with radiocarbon-dated leaves in the mud cap, and it probably happened before human settlement in the last decades of the 1700s. A prior overwash event is implied by an inland set of breaches. Hypothetically, the overwash in 1650–1800 resulted from the Antilles tsunami of 1690, the transatlantic Lisbon tsunami of 1755, a local tsunami not previously documented, or a storm whose effects exceeded those of Hurricane Donna, which was probably at category 3 as its eye passed 15 km to Anegada’s south in 1960.The work was supported in part by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission under its project N6480, a tsunami-hazard assessment for the eastern United States

Developing and Validating a Multivariable Prognostic-Predictive Classifier for Treatment Escalation of Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: The PREDICTR-OPC Study.

PURPOSE: While there are several prognostic classifiers, to date, there are no validated predictive models that inform treatment selection for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC).Our aim was to develop clinical and/or biomarker predictive models for patient outcome and treatment escalation for OPSCC. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We retrospectively collated clinical data and samples from a consecutive cohort of OPSCC cases treated with curative intent at ten secondary care centers in United Kingdom and Poland between 1999 and 2012. We constructed tissue microarrays, which were stained and scored for 10 biomarkers. We then undertook multivariable regression of eight clinical parameters and 10 biomarkers on a development cohort of 600 patients. Models were validated on an independent, retrospectively collected, 385-patient cohort. RESULTS: A total of 985 subjects (median follow-up 5.03 years, range: 4.73-5.21 years) were included. The final biomarker classifier, comprising p16 and survivin immunohistochemistry, high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA in situ hybridization, and tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, predicted benefit from combined surgery + adjuvant chemo/radiotherapy over primary chemoradiotherapy in the high-risk group [3-year overall survival (OS) 63.1% vs. 41.1%, respectively, HR = 0.32; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.16-0.65; P = 0.002], but not in the low-risk group (HR = 0.4; 95% CI, 0.14-1.24; P = 0.114). On further adjustment by propensity scores, the adjusted HR in the high-risk group was 0.34, 95% CI = 0.17-0.67, P = 0.002, and in the low-risk group HR was 0.5, 95% CI = 0.1-2.38, P = 0.384. The concordance index was 0.73. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a prognostic classifier, which also appears to demonstrate moderate predictive ability. External validation in a prospective setting is now underway to confirm this and prepare for clinical adoption