Are home prices the next "bubble"?

The strong rise in home prices since the mid-1990s has raised concerns over a possible bubble in the housing market and the effect of a sharp price decline on the U.S. economy. This article assesses two measures frequently cited to support a bubble-the rising price-to-income ratio and the declining rent-to-price ratio-and finds the measures to be flawed and the conclusions drawn from them unpersuasive. In particular, the measures do not fully account for the effects of declining nominal mortgage interest rates and fail to use appropriate home price indexes. The authors also estimate a structural model of the housing market and find that aggregate prices are not inconsistent with long-run demand fundamentals. Accordingly, they conclude that market fundamentals are strong enough to explain the recent path of home prices and that no bubble exists. Nevertheless, weakening fundamentals could have an impact on home values on the east and west coasts, where the new housing supply appears to be relatively inelastic. However, prices in these regions have typically been volatile, and previous declines have not had a sizable negative effect on the overall economy.Housing - Prices ; Housing - Finance ; Business cycles

The 16-39 micron spectroscopy of oxygen-rich stars

Airborne observations of the 16-39 microns spectra of ten oxygen-rich stars with excess emission in the infrared was obtained. The stars show excess emission attributed to circumstellar dust grains in the 16-39 microns region in the form of a broad hump peaking near 18 microns and falling smoothly to longer wavelengths. The emission is similar in character to the emission from the Trapezium region of the Orion nebula indicating the grain materials are quite similar in these objects. The existence of a feature in the 20 microns region is consistent with the 0-Si-0 bending resonance expected for silicate material. The lack of any sharp structure in the spectra indicates the silicate is in an amorphous, disordered form. A simple model of small grains of carbonaceous chondrite silicate material in a diffuse circumstellar envelope is shown to give a good qualitative fit to the observed 8-39 microns circumstellar spectra. Comparison of the observed spectra with the model spectra indicates the grain emissivity falls as 1/lambda squared from 20 microns to 40 microns

Risky neighborhoods? House appreciation in underserved areas

This research project will investigate house price appreciation trends in traditionally underserved areas. The primary goal is to develop and test a methodology to determine what part of a home (appreciation)is due to structural and neighborhood effects, and what part may be attributable to other factors such as homeowners actions (including repair, maintenance, and upgrades). We will employ a space-time modeling framework to measure appreciation varying influences of structural and neighborhood, and other factors on appreciation overtime. We will compare appreciation trends across different submarkets (underserved and conventional) and for both high risk and low risk borrowers. The empirical analysis will employ thr TRW-REDI housing transaction data set for Miami MSA (USA) for the 1985-1993 period in conjunction with Census and American Housing Survey (AHS) data.

Monetary policy transmission to residential investment

Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary TransmissionMonetary policy ; Housing - Finance ; Mortgages

Lifetime Earnings Variability and Retirement Wealth

This paper explores how earnings variability is related to retirement wealth. Past research has demonstrated that the average American household on the verge of retirement would need to save substantially more, in order to preserve consumption flows in old age. While several socioeconomic factors have been examined that might explain such problems, prior studies have not assessed the role of earnings variability over the lifetime as a potential explanation for poor retirement prospects. Thus two workers having identical levels of average lifetime earnings might have had very different patterns of earnings variability over their lifetimes. Such differences could translate into quite different retirement wealth outcomes. This paper evaluates the effect of earnings variability on retirement wealth using information supplied by respondents to the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). This is a rich and nationally representative dataset on Americans on the verge of retirement, with responses linked to administrative records from the Social Security Administration. Our research illuminates the key links between lifetime earnings variability and retirement wealth.

Techniques for improving reliability of computers

Modular design techniques improve methods of error detection, diagnosis, and recovery. Theoretical computer (MARCS (Modular Architecture for Reliable Computer Systems)) study deals with postulated and modeled technology indigenous to 1975-1980. Study developments are discussed

A mathematical morphology approach for a qualitative exploration of drought events in space and time

Drought events occur worldwide and possibly incur severe consequences. Trying to understand and characterize drought events is of considerable importance in order to improve the preparedness for coping with future events. In this paper, we present a methodology that allows for the delineation of drought events by exploiting their spatiotemporal nature. To that end, we apply operators borrowed from mathematical morphology to represent drought events as connected components in space and time. As an illustration, we identify drought events on the basis of a 35-year data set of daily soil moisture values covering mainland Australia. We then extract characteristics reflecting the affected area, duration and intensity from the proposed representation of a drought event in order to illustrate the impact of tuning parameters in the methodology presented. Yet, this paper we refrain from comparing with other drought delineation methods

Improvement of oral reports through the students' use of audio-visual aids

Author misnumbered thesis. Please note that there are TWO page 108s, but the continuity is the same. Thesis (Ed.M.)--Boston Universit

Mission design for a ballistic slow flyby Comet Encke 1980

Preliminary mission analyses for a proposed 1980 slow flyby (7-9 km/s) of comet Encke are presented. Among the topics covered are science objectives, Encke's physical activity and ephemeris accuracy, trajectory and launch-window analysis, terminal guidance, and spacecraft concepts. The nominal mission plan calls for a near-perihelion intercept with two spacecraft launched on a single launch vehicle. Both spacecraft will arrive at the same time, one passing within 500 km from Encke's nucleus on its sunward side, the other cutting through the tail region. By applying a small propulsive correction about three weeks after the encounter, it is possible to retarget both spacecraft for a second Encke intercept in 1984. The potential science return from the ballistic slow flyby is compared with other proposed mission modes for the 1980 Encke flyby mission, including the widely advocated slow flyby using solar-electric propulsion. It is shown that the ballistic slow flyby is superior in every respect