Robustness of spatial micronetworks

Power lines, roadways, pipelines, and other physical infrastructure are critical to modern society. These structures may be viewed as spatial networks where geographic distances play a role in the functionality and construction cost of links. Traditionally, studies of network robustness have primarily considered the connectedness of large, random networks. Yet for spatial infrastructure, physical distances must also play a role in network robustness. Understanding the robustness of small spatial networks is particularly important with the increasing interest in microgrids, i.e., small-area distributed power grids that are well suited to using renewable energy resources. We study the random failures of links in small networks where functionality depends on both spatial distance and topological connectedness. By introducing a percolation model where the failure of each link is proportional to its spatial length, we find that when failures depend on spatial distances, networks are more fragile than expected. Accounting for spatial effects in both construction and robustness is important for designing efficient microgrids and other network infrastructure

Comparison of combination methods to create calibrated ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the U.S.

The characteristics of influenza seasons vary substantially from year to year, posing challenges for public health preparation and response. Influenza forecasting is used to inform seasonal outbreak response, which can in turn potentially reduce the impact of an epidemic. The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in collaboration with external researchers, has run an annual prospective influenza forecasting exercise, known as the FluSight challenge. Uniting theoretical results from the forecasting literature with domain-specific forecasts from influenza outbreaks, we applied parametric forecast combination methods that simultaneously optimize model weights and calibrate the ensemble via a beta transformation and made adjustments to the methods to reduce their complexity. We used the beta-transformed linear pool, the finite beta mixture model, and their equal weight adaptations to produce ensemble forecasts retrospectively for the 2016/2017, 2017/2018, and 2018/2019 influenza seasons in the U.S. We compared their performance to methods that were used in the FluSight challenge to produce the FluSight Network ensemble, namely the equally weighted linear pool and the linear pool. Ensemble forecasts produced from methods with a beta transformation were shown to outperform those from the equally weighted linear pool and the linear pool for all week-ahead targets across in the test seasons based on average log scores. We observed improvements in overall accuracy despite the beta-transformed linear pool or beta mixture methods\u27 modest under-prediction across all targets and seasons. Combination techniques that explicitly adjust for known calibration issues in linear pooling should be considered to improve probabilistic scores in outbreak settings

Structural and functional characterisation of human RNA helicase DHX8 provides insights into the mechanism of RNA-stimulated ADP release.

DHX8 is a crucial DEAH-box RNA helicase involved in splicing and required for the release of mature mRNA from the spliceosome. Here, we report the biochemical characterisation of full-length human DHX8 and the catalytically active helicase core DHX8Δ547, alongside crystal structures of DHX8Δ547 bound to ADP and a structure of DHX8Δ547 bound to poly(A)6 single-strand RNA. Our results reveal that DHX8 has an in vitro binding preference for adenine-rich RNA and that RNA binding triggers the release of ADP through significant conformational flexibility in the conserved DEAH-, P-loop and hook-turn motifs. We demonstrate the importance of R620 and both the hook-turn and hook-loop regions for DHX8 helicase activity and propose that the hook-turn acts as a gatekeeper to regulate the directional movement of the 3' end of RNA through the RNA-binding channel. This study provides an in-depth understanding of the activity of DHX8 and contributes insights into the RNA-unwinding mechanisms of the DEAH-box helicase family

Aggregating human judgment probabilistic predictions of COVID-19 transmission, burden, and preventative measures

Aggregated human judgment forecasts for COVID-19 targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and adaptable, and can be used as tool to aid public health decision making during outbreaks

Healthcare providers' views on the acceptability of financial incentives for breastfeeding:a qualitative study

BACKGROUND: Despite a gradual increase in breastfeeding rates, overall in the UK there are wide variations, with a trend towards breastfeeding rates at 6–8 weeks remaining below 40% in less affluent areas. While financial incentives have been used with varying success to encourage positive health related behaviour change, there is little research on their use in encouraging breastfeeding. In this paper, we report on healthcare providers’ views around whether using financial incentives in areas with low breastfeeding rates would be acceptable in principle. This research was part of a larger project looking at the development and feasibility testing of a financial incentive scheme for breastfeeding in preparation for a cluster randomised controlled trial. METHODS: Fifty–three healthcare providers were interviewed about their views on financial incentives for breastfeeding. Participants were purposively sampled to include a wide range of experience and roles associated with supporting mothers with infant feeding. Semi-structured individual and group interviews were conducted. Data were analysed thematically drawing on the principles of Framework Analysis. RESULTS: The key theme emerging from healthcare providers’ views on the acceptability of financial incentives for breastfeeding was their possible impact on ‘facilitating or impeding relationships’. Within this theme several additional aspects were discussed: the mother’s relationship with her healthcare provider and services, with her baby and her family, and with the wider community. In addition, a key priority for healthcare providers was that an incentive scheme should not impact negatively on their professional integrity and responsibility towards women. CONCLUSION: Healthcare providers believe that financial incentives could have both positive and negative impacts on a mother’s relationship with her family, baby and healthcare provider. When designing a financial incentive scheme we must take care to minimise the potential negative impacts that have been highlighted, while at the same time recognising the potential positive impacts for women in areas where breastfeeding rates are low

Incidence and Sequelae of Prosthesis-Patient Mismatch in Transcatheter Versus Surgical Valve Replacement in High-Risk Patients With Severe Aortic Stenosis A PARTNER Trial Cohort-A Analysis

AbstractBackgroundLittle is known about the incidence of prosthesis-patient mismatch (PPM) and its impact on outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR).ObjectivesThe objectives of this study were: 1) to compare the incidence of PPM in the TAVR and surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) randomized control trial (RCT) arms of the PARTNER (Placement of AoRTic TraNscathetER Valves) I Trial cohort A; and 2) to assess the impact of PPM on regression of left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy and mortality in these 2 arms and in the TAVR nonrandomized continued access (NRCA) registry cohort.MethodsThe PARTNER Trial cohort A randomized patients 1:1 to TAVR or bioprosthetic SAVR. Postoperative PPM was defined as absent if the indexed effective orifice area (EOA) was >0.85 cm2/m2, moderate if the indexed EOA was ≥0.65 but ≤0.85 cm2/m2, or severe if the indexed EOA was <0.65 cm2/m2. LV mass regression and mortality were analyzed using the SAVR-RCT (n = 270), TAVR-RCT (n = 304), and TAVR-NRCA (n = 1,637) cohorts.ResultsThe incidence of PPM was 60.0% (severe: 28.1%) in the SAVR-RCT cohort versus 46.4% (severe: 19.7%) in the TAVR-RCT cohort (p < 0.001) and 43.8% (severe: 13.6%) in the TAVR-NRCA cohort. In patients with an aortic annulus diameter <20 mm, severe PPM developed in 33.7% undergoing SAVR compared with 19.0% undergoing TAVR (p = 0.002). PPM was an independent predictor of less LV mass regression at 1 year in the SAVR-RCT (p = 0.017) and TAVR-NRCA (p = 0.012) cohorts but not in the TAVR-RCT cohort (p = 0.35). Severe PPM was an independent predictor of 2-year mortality in the SAVR-RCT cohort (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.78; p = 0.041) but not in the TAVR-RCT cohort (HR: 0.58; p = 0.11). In the TAVR-NRCA cohort, severe PPM was not a predictor of 1-year mortality in all patients (HR: 1.05; p = 0.60) but did independently predict mortality in the subset of patients with no post-procedural aortic regurgitation (HR: 1.88; p = 0.02).ConclusionsIn patients with severe aortic stenosis and high surgical risk, PPM is more frequent and more often severe after SAVR than TAVR. Patients with PPM after SAVR have worse survival and less LV mass regression than those without PPM. Severe PPM also has a significant impact on survival after TAVR in the subset of patients with no post-procedural aortic regurgitation. TAVR may be preferable to SAVR in patients with a small aortic annulus who are susceptible to PPM to avoid its adverse impact on LV mass regression and survival. (The PARTNER Trial: Placement of AoRTic TraNscathetER Valve Trial; NCT00530894

New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation After PCI or CABG for Left Main Disease: The EXCEL Trial

Background: There is limited information on the incidence and prognostic impact of new-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) for left main coronary artery disease (LMCAD). Objectives: This study sought to determine the incidence of NOAF following PCI and CABG for LMCAD and its effect on 3-year cardiovascular outcomes. Methods: In the EXCEL (Evaluation of XIENCE Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for Effectiveness of Left Main Revascularization) trial, 1,905 patients with LMCAD and low or intermediate SYNTAX scores were randomized to PCI with everolimus-eluting stents versus CABG. Outcomes were analyzed according to the development of NOAF during the initial hospitalization following revascularization. Results: Among 1,812 patients without atrial fibrillation on presentation, NOAF developed at a mean of 2.7 ± 2.5 days after revascularization in 162 patients (8.9%), including 161 of 893 (18.0%) CABG-treated patients and 1 of 919 (0.1%) PCI-treated patients (p < 0.0001). Older age, greater body mass index, and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction were independent predictors of NOAF in patients undergoing CABG. Patients with versus without NOAF had a significantly longer duration of hospitalization, were more likely to be discharged on anticoagulant therapy, and had an increased 30-day rate of Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction major or minor bleeding (14.2% vs. 5.5%; p < 0.0001). By multivariable analysis, NOAF after CABG was an independent predictor of 3-year stroke (6.6% vs. 2.4%; adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 4.19; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.74 to 10.11; p = 0.001), death (11.4% vs. 4.3%; adjusted HR: 3.02; 95% CI: 1.60 to 5.70; p = 0.0006), and the primary composite endpoint of death, MI, or stroke (22.6% vs. 12.8%; adjusted HR: 2.13; 95% CI: 1.39 to 3.25; p = 0.0004). Conclusions: In patients with LMCAD undergoing revascularization in the EXCEL trial, NOAF was common after CABG but extremely rare after PCI. The development of NOAF was strongly associated with subsequent death and stroke in CABG-treated patients. Further studies are warranted to determine whether prophylactic strategies to prevent or treat atrial fibrillation may improve prognosis in patients with LMCAD who are undergoing CABG. (Evaluation of XIENCE Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for Effectiveness of Left Main Revascularizatio

Single-spin Azimuthal Asymmetries in Electroproduction of Neutral Pions in Semi-inclusive Deep-inelastic Scattering

A single-spin asymmetry in the azimuthal distribution of neutral pions relative to the lepton scattering plane has been measured for the first time in deep-inelastic scattering of positrons off longitudinally polarized protons. The analysing power in the sin(phi) moment of the cross section is 0.019 +/- 0.007(stat.) +/- 0.003(syst.). This result is compared to single-spin asymmetries for charged pion production measured in the same kinematic range. The pi^0 asymmetry is of the same size as the pi^+ asymmetry and shows a similar dependence on the relevant kinematic variables. The asymmetry is described by a phenomenological calculation based on a fragmentation function that represents sensitivity to the transverse polarization of the struck quark.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, replaced to correct eprint author field, 2nd replacement to correct figure; upper limit of model predictions are corrected. No correction to data or conclusion

Exclusive Leptoproduction of rho^0 Mesons from Hydrogen at Intermediate Virtual Photon Energies

Measurements of the cross section for exclusive virtual-photoproduction of rho^0 mesons from hydrogen are reported. The data were collected by the HERMES experiment using 27.5 GeV positrons incident on a hydrogen gas target in the HERA storage ring. The invariant mass W of the photon-nucleon system ranges from 4.0 to 6.0 GeV, while the negative squared four-momentum Q^2 of the virtual photon varies from 0.7 to 5.0 GeV^2. The present data together with most of the previous data at W > 4 GeV are well described by a model that infers the W-dependence of the cross section from the dependence on the Bjorken scaling variable x of the unpolarized structure function for deep-inelastic scattering. In addition, a model calculation based on Off-Forward Parton Distributions gives a fairly good account of the longitudinal component of the rho^0 production cross section for Q^2 > 2 GeV^2.Comment: 10 pages, 6 embedded figures, LaTeX for SVJour(epj) document class. Revisions: curves added to Fig. 1, several clarifications added to tex