Spatial and temporal patterns of land clearing during policy change

Environmental policies and regulations have been instrumental in influencing deforestation rates around the world. Understanding how these policies change stakeholder behaviours is critical for determining policy impact. In Queensland, Australia, changes in native vegetation management policy seem to have influenced land clearing behaviour of landholders. Periods of peak clearing rates have been associated with periods preceding the introduction of stricter legislation. However, the characteristics of clearing patterns during the last two decades are poorly understood. This study investigates the underlying spatiotemporal patterns in land clearing using a range of biophysical, climatic, and property characteristics of clearing events. Principal component and hierarchical cluster analyses were applied to identify dissimilarities between years along the political timeline. Overall, aggregate landholders' clearing characteristics remain generally consistent over time, though noticeable deviations are observed at smaller regional and temporal scales. While clearing patterns in some regions have shifted to reflect the policy's goals, others have experienced minimal or contradictory changes following regulation. Potential "panic" or "pre-emptive" effects are evident in the analysis, such as spikes in clearing for pasture expansions, but differ across regions. Because different regions are driven by different pressures, such as land availability and regulatory opportunity, it is imperative that the varying spatial and temporal behavioural responses of landholders are monitored to understand the influence of policy and its evolution. Future policy amendments would benefit from monitoring these regional responses from landholders to better assess the effectiveness of policy and the potential perversities of policy uncertainty. © 2018 The Author

Using species distribution models to predict potential landscape restoration effects on puma conservation

A mosaic of intact native and human-modified vegetation use can provide important habitat for top predators such as the puma (Puma concolor), avoiding negative effects on other species and ecological processes due to cascade trophic interactions. This study investigates the effects of restoration scenarios on the puma’s habitat suitability in the most developed Brazilian region (São Paulo State). Species Distribution Models incorporating restoration scenarios were developed using the species’ occurrence information to (1) map habitat suitability of pumas in São Paulo State, Southeast, Brazil; (2) test the relative contribution of environmental variables ecologically relevant to the species habitat suitability and (3) project the predicted habitat suitability to future native vegetation restoration scenarios. The Maximum Entropy algorithm was used (Test AUC of 0.84 ± 0.0228) based on seven environmental non-correlated variables and non-autocorrelated presence-only records (n = 342). The percentage of native vegetation (positive influence), elevation (positive influence) and density of roads (negative influence) were considered the most important environmental variables to the model. Model projections to restoration scenarios reflected the high positive relationship between pumas and native vegetation. These projections identified new high suitability areas for pumas (probability of presence >0.5) in highly deforested regions. High suitability areas were increased from 5.3% to 8.5% of the total State extension when the landscapes were restored for ≥ the minimum native vegetation cover rule (20%) established by the Brazilian Forest Code in private lands. This study highlights the importance of a landscape planning approach to improve the conservation outlook for pumas and other species, including not only the establishment and management of protected areas, but also the habitat restoration on private lands. Importantly, the results may inform environmental policies and land use planning in São Paulo State, Brazil

Forest loss and Borneo's climate

The equatorial island of Borneo is a deforestation hotspot. However, the influence of forest loss on the island's climate remains largely unexplored. Here, we examine how forest loss is related to changes in ground-based records of temperature (1961-2007) and precipitation (1951-2007), and MODIS data for temperature (2002-2016). Analyses were performed for the entire island, lowland areas (<200 m ASL), and nine selected watersheds. We found a strong island-wide relationship between forest loss and increases in daily temperature and reductions in daily precipitation. The relationship between deforestation and changes in local climate was most pronounced for watersheds in southeast Borneo, which have lost 40-75% of their forests since 1973. These watersheds also had a significantly higher frequency of temperatures above 31oC. Watersheds in north and northwest Borneo, which have lost 5-25% of their forest cover, maintained a more stable climate with a similar distribution of mean and extreme warm temperatures between forest and modified forest areas. Watersheds with >15% forest loss had a >15% reduction in rainfall. We conclude that loss of forest in Borneo has increased local daily temperatures and temperature extremes, and reduced daily precipitation

Converting tropical forests to agriculture increases fire risk by fourfold

Deforestation exacerbates climate change through greenhouse gas emissions, but other climatic alterations linked to the local biophysical changes from deforestation remain poorly understood. Here, we assess the impact of tropical deforestation on fire weather risk—defined as the climate conditions conducive to wildfires—using high-resolution convection-permitting climate simulations. We consider two land cover scenarios for the island of Borneo: land cover in 1980 (forest scenario) and land cover in 2050 (deforestation scenario) to force a convection-permitting climate model, using boundary conditions from ERA-Interim reanalysis for the 2002–2016 period. Our findings revealed significant alterations in post-deforestation fire precursors such as increased temperature, wind speed and potential evapotranspiration and decreased humidity, cloud cover and precipitation. As a result, fire weather events that would occur once a year in the forested scenario, are likely to occur four times a year following deforestation. Likewise, for extreme conditions, such as those occurring on longer time-horizons than 20 years, the magnitude of extreme fire weather is likely to double following deforestation. These increases in extreme fire weather conditions demonstrate the key role of tropical forests in regulating regional climate processes, including reduced fire weather risk

sic! - Zeitschrift für Immaterialgüter-, Informations- und Wettbewerbsrecht

Climate change policies currently focus on reducing the concentration of industrial atmospheric greenhouse gases due to burning fossil fuels and deforestation, but pay limited attention to feedbacks between the land surface and the climate system. In tropical and subtropical regions, forests and woodlands play an important role in the climate system by buffering climate extremes, maintaining the hydrological cycle and sequestering carbon. Despite the obvious significance of these feedbacks to the functioning of the climate system, deforestation continues apace. It is critical, therefore, that a broader focus be developed that includes the restoration of feedbacks between vegetation and climate. In this paper, we present a synthesis of the best available, policy-relevant science on the feedbacks between the land surface and the climate system, with a focus on tropical and subtropical regions. On the basis of this science, we argue for a stronger integration of land-use and climate-change policies. These policies need to include a virtual halt to all deforestation and an acceleration of investment in strategic reforestation, supported by a comprehensive global forest monitoring program. Without these actions, the degradation of the Earth's ecosystems will become exacerbated as their resilience is eroded by accelerated changes in temperature, precipitation and extreme weather events. © 2010 Elsevier B.V

Study area map.

<p>Land use and pumas’ occurrence records (2001–2012) in São Paulo State, Southeast, Brazil. This figure was elaborated by the first author using software ArcGIS 10.1 and IrfanView 4.37.</p

Marginal response curves showing how the logistic prediction changed as each of the three environmental variables that contributed the most to the models were varied: native vegetation (a), elevation (b) and density of roads (c).

<p>Marginal response curves showing how the logistic prediction changed as each of the three environmental variables that contributed the most to the models were varied: native vegetation (a), elevation (b) and density of roads (c).</p

The puma habitat suitability in São Paulo State, Brazil and its projection in three restoration scenarios: (a) original Maxent distribution model average, (b) ≥10% percentage of native vegetation restoration scenario, (c) ≥20% percentage of native vegetation restoration scenario, and ≥30% percentage of native vegetation restoration scenario (d).

<p>This figure was elaborated by the first author using softwares ArcGIS 10.1 and IrfanView 4.37.</p

High probability of puma presence (original) in São Paulo State, Brazil and high probability of puma presence projected in three restoration scenarios (≥10% percentage of native vegetation, ≥20% percentage of native vegetation, and ≥30% percentage of native vegetation) zoomed in for a close-up of three different landscape regions: (a) Northwestern region, (b) Central region and (c) Southeastern region.

<p>This figure was elaborated by the first author using softwares ArcGIS 10.1 and IrfanView 4.37.</p