A Universal Model of Global Civil Unrest

Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion in the context of modeling and identification of universal patterns of behavior. In contrast, the possibility that civil unrest activities, across countries and over long time periods, are governed by universal mechanisms has not been explored. Here, we analyze records of civil unrest of 170 countries during the period 1919-2008. We demonstrate that the distributions of the number of unrest events per year are robustly reproduced by a nonlinear, spatially extended dynamical model, which reflects the spread of civil disorder between geographic regions connected through social and communication networks. The results also expose the similarity between global social instability and the dynamics of natural hazards and epidemics.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figure

Non-Disruptive Tactics of Suppression Are Superior in Countering Terrorism, Insurgency, and Financial Panics

BACKGROUND: Suppressing damaging aggregate behaviors such as insurgency, terrorism, and financial panics are important tasks of the state. Each outcome of these aggregate behaviors is an emergent property of a system in which each individual's action depends on a subset of others' actions, given by each individual's network of interactions. Yet there are few explicit comparisons of strategies for suppression, and none that fully incorporate the interdependence of individual behavior. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Here I show that suppression tactics that do not require the removal of individuals from networks of interactions are nearly always more effective than those that do. I find using simulation analysis of a general model of interdependent behavior that the degree to which such less disruptive suppression tactics are superior to more disruptive ones increases in the propensity of individuals to engage in the behavior in question. CONCLUSIONS: Thus, hearts-and-minds approaches are generally more effective than force in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency, and partial insurance is usually a better tactic than gag rules in quelling financial panics. Differences between suppression tactics are greater when individual incentives to support terrorist or insurgent groups, or susceptibilities to financial panic, are higher. These conclusions have utility for policy-makers seeking to end bloody conflicts and prevent financial panics. As the model also applies to mass protest, its conclusions provide insight as well into the likely effects of different suppression strategies undertaken by authoritarian regimes seeking to hold on to power in the face of mass movements seeking to end them

Business unusual: collective action against bribery in international business

Collective action initiatives in which governments and companies make anti-corruption commitments have proliferated in recent years. This apparently prosocial behavior defies the logic of collective action and, given that bribery often goes undetected and unpunished, is not easily explained by principal-agent theory. Club theory suggests that the answer lies in the institutional design of anti-corruption clubs: collective action can work as long as membership has high entry costs, members receive selective benefits, and compliance is adequately policed. This article contributes to the debate by examining how these conditions manifest in the case of anti-corruption clubs in the realm of international business, with particular focus on the international dimension of many initiatives. This vertical aspect of institutional design creates a richer, more complex set of reputational and material benefits for members, as well as allowing for more credible and consistent monitoring and enforcement

Adaptive Evolution of Staphylococcus aureus during Chronic Endobronchial Infection of a Cystic Fibrosis Patient

The molecular adaptation of Staphylococcus aureus to its host during chronic infection is not well understood. Comparative genome sequencing of 3 S. aureus isolates obtained sequentially over 26 months from the airways of a cystic fibrosis patient, revealed variation in phage content, and genetic polymorphisms in genes which influence antibiotic resistance, and global regulation of virulence. The majority of polymorphisms were isolate-specific suggesting the existence of an heterogeneous infecting population that evolved from a single infecting strain of S. aureus. The genetic variation identified correlated with differences in growth rate, hemolytic activity, and antibiotic sensitivity, implying a profound effect on the ecology of S. aureus. In particular, a high frequency of mutations in loci associated with the alternate transcription factor SigB, were observed. The identification of genes under diversifying selection during long-term infection may inform the design of novel therapeutics for the control of refractory chronic infections

Family members’ experiences of “wait and see” as a communication strategy in end-of-life decisions

The aim of this study is to examine family members’ experiences of end-of-life decision-making processes in Norwegian intensive care units (ICUs) to ascertain the degree to which they felt included in the decision-making process and whether they received necessary information. Were they asked about the patient’s preferences, and how did they view their role as family members in the decision-making process? A constructivist interpretive approach to the grounded theory method of qualitative research was employed with interviews of 27 bereaved family members of former ICU patients 3–12 months after the patient’s death. The core finding is that relatives want a more active role in end-of-life decision-making in order to communicate the patient’s wishes. However, many consider their role to be unclear, and few study participants experienced shared decision-making. The clinician’s expression “wait and see” hides and delays the communication of honest and clear information. When physicians finally address their decision, there is no time for family participation. Our results also indicate that nurses should be more involved in family–physician communication. Families are uncertain whether or how they can participate in the decision-making process. They need unambiguous communication and honest information to be able to take part in the decision-making process. We suggest that clinicians in Norwegian ICUs need more training in the knowledge and skills of effective communication with families of dying patients

The essential mycobacterial genes, fabG1 and fabG4, encode 3-oxoacyl-thioester reductases that are functional in yeast mitochondrial fatty acid synthase type 2

Mycobacterium tuberculosis represents a severe threat to human health worldwide. Therefore, it is important to expand our knowledge of vital mycobacterial processes, such as that effected by fatty acid synthase type 2 (FASII), as well as to uncover novel ones. Mycobacterial FASII undertakes mycolic acid biosynthesis, which relies on a set of essential enzymes, including 3-oxoacyl-AcpM reductase FabG1/Rv1483. However, the M. tuberculosis genome encodes four additional FabG homologs, designated FabG2–FabG5, whose functions have hitherto not been characterized in detail. Of the four candidates, FabG4/Rv0242c was recently shown to be essential for the survival of M. bovis BCG. The present work was initiated by assessing the suitability of yeast oar1Δ mutant cells lacking mitochondrial 3-oxoacyl-ACP reductase activity to act as a surrogate system for expressing FabG1/MabA directed to the mitochondria. Mutant yeast cells producing this targeted FabG1 variant were essentially wild type for all of the chronicled phenotype characteristics, including respiratory growth on glycerol medium, cytochrome assembly and lipoid acid production. This indicated that within the framework of de novo fatty acid biosynthesis in yeast mitochondria, FabG1 was able to act on shorter (C4) acyl substrates than was previously proposed (C8–20) during mycolic acid biosynthesis in M. tuberculosis. Thereafter, FabG2–FabG5 were expressed as mitochondrial proteins in the oar1Δ strain, and FabG4 was found to complement the mutant phenotype and contain high levels of 3-oxoacyl-thioester reductase activity. Hence, like FabG1, FabG4 is also an essential, physiologically functional 3-oxoacyl-thioester reductase, albeit the latter’s involvement in mycobacterial FASII remains to be explored