Does COMESA Have Export Potential to Emerging Economies?

By the virtue of their size, Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) present trade opportunities for both developed and developing countries. To benefit from such opportunities, countries need to identify the areas where they have comparative advantage. This paper analyses the export potential of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) member countries to selected emerging market economies (EMEs) including Brazil, Russia, India, China, Turkey, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), South Africa and Nigeria. The aim is to investigate if COMESA member countries are competitive in the EMEs and identify the specific products which the region has a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in specific EME market. Using RCA method, the study finds that COMESA countries have RCA in at least 200 products (about 4 percent) of the total 5,134 products they export to the selected emerging markets. Export of these products also account for a small market share in the emerging markets. COMESA countries therefore have a large export potential in these markets which remains unexploited. Export potential is larger in Russia, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and UAE, respectively. Textiles and textile products, mineral products, base metal and articles of base metal, live animals and vegetable products have the largest export potential in EMEs. Keywords: COMESA, emerging market economies (EMEs), RCA and export potential DOI: 10.7176/JESD/11-10-07 Publication date:May 31st 202

Barriers Faced By Women-Owned Businesses: Perspectives of Women from East African Community

Equal access to economic opportunities by both women and men contributes to better development outcomes. Globally, women enterprises comprise about a third of all enterprises and contribute significantly to employment generation and development. The same is true for the Partner States of the East African Community (EAC) countries of Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda e.g. in Kenya, Women account for about 56 percent of all entrepreneurs in the country. Most of the businesses in the EAC region remain largely informal, with lower earnings and no social security. For a long time, gender inequality has remained a global development challenge, with gender equality being a development objective itself and also a means to achieve the equitable and sustainable development as well. The World Economic Forum (WEF, 2012) Gender Gap Index (GGI), which measures countries gender-based gaps in access to resources and opportunities shows that EAC countries have some catch up to do with respect to equal access to resources and opportunities for both women and men (Table 1). The gender gap shows the ratio of women to men and thus the larger the indicator score (given in percentage), the lower the gap between men and women in the specific indicator

The Twin Deficit and the Macroeconomic variables in Kenya

The purpose of this paper is to test the twin deficit hypothesis and empirical relationship between current account balance and budget deficit while including other important macroeconomic variables such as growth, interest rates, money supply (M3) in Kenya from 1963-2012. The study was based on co integration analysis and error correction model (ECM). The results reveal a long-run association between the trade deficit and the fiscal deficit. The findings indicate that the Keynesian view fits well for Kenya since the causality runs from budget deficit to current account deficit. We detected unidirectional causation between the twin deficits, running from budget deficit to current account directly and indirectly through budget deficits which raise real interest rates, crowd out domestic investment, and cause the currency to appreciate in relation to the other currencies and further deteriorates the current account deficit

Mental health and psychological well-being of Kenyan adolescents from Nairobi and the Coast regions in the context of COVID-19

Background Despite the high burden of mental health problems during adolescence and its associated nega- tive consequences, it has remained neglected especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The 2019 novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has placed additional stress on adolescent mental health. However, there are few studies docu- menting the burden of mental health problems and even fewer mental health services in the region. In relation to the limited body of knowledge, the present study aims to determine the psychological well-being of adolescents and to assess the risks and associated factors of mental health problems among adolescents in the context of COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey in 2022 among adolescents aged 13–19 years living in Nairobi, and the Coast region of Kenya. We utilized standardized psychological assessment tools including the Patient Health Questionnaire, Generalized Anxiety Scale, Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, The World Health Organization- Five Well-Being Index Scale, and the Pandemic Anxiety Scale, to evaluate the psychological wellbeing of the adoles- cents. A linear regression model was used to evaluate the correlates associated with quality of life, pandemic anxiety, and emotional and behavioural problems among adolescents. Subsequently, a logistic regression model was used to assess factors associated with depression and general anxiety disorders. Variables with a p-value \u3c 0.25 in the univari- ate model were included in the multivariable regression model. Results The results are based on 797 participants who met the inclusion criteria. We found the prevalence of depression to be relatively higher among out-of-school adolescents at 36.0% compared to school-going adolescents at 20.6%. Furthermore, out-of-school adolescents had significantly higher anxiety scores when compared to their school-going counterparts (27.7% vs 19.1%) respectively. In-school adolescents had a better quality of life scores, lower pandemic anxiety scores, and lower emotional and behavioral problems scores compared to their out-of-school counterparts. Key risk factors associated with depression include; being out-of-school (OR = 1.96 (95% CI 1.33- 2.88) p-value = 0.001), loneliness (OR = 10.68 (95% CI 4.49–22.86) p-value \u3c 0.001), and living in an unsafe neighborhood (OR = 2.24 (95% CI 1.52–3.29) p-value \u3c 0.001). An older age (OR = 1.16 (95% CI 1.03–1.30) p-value = 0.015), being out-of-school (OR = 1.81 (95% CI 1.19–2.77) p-value = 0.006), and living in an unsafe neighborhood (OR = 2.01 (95% CI 1.33–3.04) p-value = 0.001 were key factors associated with anxiety. Furthermore, key factors positively correlated with quality of life include; high socioeconomic status (ß (Std.Err) = 0.58 (0.14) p-value \u3c 0.001, talking to friends often (ß (Std.Err) = 2.32 (0.53) p-value \u3c 0.001, and being close to parents (ß (Std.Err) = 1.37 (0.62) = 0.026. Conclusion Our findings imply that mental health support services targeting adolescents in the country should be prioritized, especially for those who are out-of-school

Monetary Policy Convergence within the EAC: A Focus on Interest Rate and Exchange Rate

This study was conducted to establish whether the key variables in monetary policy transmission mechanisms are converging within the East African Community. This region is eyeing having an economic union and subsequently a monetary union hence the significance of investing developments in the monetary sector. The analysis used panel data from the year 2005 to 2020 for five EACs. To test for convergence of interest rates and exchange rates, the analysis employed; unit-root test, sigma convergence, co-integration tests, and finally used the panel fixed effect model to establish the impact of the two variables on the GDP. The analysis shows that in the short run, there is no convergence in interest rates but there is convergence in exchange rates. However, in the long run, the two monetary policy variables are co-integrated indicating that the region is doing well in terms of integration in the financial sector in their preparation to form a common trade area and monetary union. The analysis of the impact of the two variables on economic growth shows that only the exchange rate is significant, therefore, the region should strive to foster a stable exchange rate regime to realize increased economic growth

Effect of Transport Infrastructure and Institutions on Inter-Regional Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa

The study investigates the role of transport infrastructure and quality of institutions on trade between the East African Community and three other regional blocs in Sub-Saharan Africa using panel data for the period between 2000 and 2018. By employing gravity model for trade and Poisson-Pseudo Maximum likelihood estimator, the study finds that transport infrastructure facilitates inter- East African Community trade. Additionally, improvements in regulatory quality of the East African Community Partner States and control of corruption of the importing regional blocs have positive effect on East African Community’s exports. The findings therefore suggest the need for additional investment in transport related infrastructure and improvement in quality of institutions of the East African Community Partner States for more trade

Effect of Transport Infrastructure and Institutions on Inter-Regional Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa

The study investigates the role of transport infrastructure and quality of institutions on trade between the East African Community and three other regional blocs in Sub-Saharan Africa using panel data for the period between 2000 and 2018. By employing gravity model for trade and Poisson-Pseudo Maximum likelihood estimator, the study finds that transport infrastructure facilitates inter- East African Community trade. Additionally, improvements in regulatory quality of the East African Community Partner States and control of corruption of the importing regional blocs have positive effect on East African Community’s exports. The findings therefore suggest the need for additional investment in transport related infrastructure and improvement in quality of institutions of the East African Community Partner States for more trade

Impact of economic partnership agreements: the case of EAC’s manufactured imports from EU

his study uses a partial equilibrium model to analyse the impact of East African Community elimination of import duty on imports of manufactured products from the European Union on preferential basis under the proposed EAC-EU Economic Partnership Agreement. Results show possibility of a 9% increase of manufactured goods imports from EU into the EAC region. Imports from EU found to be likely to increase the most are those with higher tariffs of 25% or 10%. EAC tariff elimination is found to be likely to lead to lower prices for manufactured goods, leading to small consumption gains of about 0.03% of the region’s GDP. We recommend that EAC countries take measures to improve the competiveness of their manufactured goods in order to compete with EU’s manufactured products once the EAC-EU EPA comes into effect

Mental health and psychological well-being of Kenyan adolescents from Nairobi and the Coast regions in the context of COVID-19

Abstract Background Despite the high burden of mental health problems during adolescence and its associated negative consequences, it has remained neglected especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The 2019 novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has placed additional stress on adolescent mental health. However, there are few studies documenting the burden of mental health problems and even fewer mental health services in the region. In relation to the limited body of knowledge, the present study aims to determine the psychological well-being of adolescents and to assess the risks and associated factors of mental health problems among adolescents in the context of COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey in 2022 among adolescents aged 13–19 years living in Nairobi, and the Coast region of Kenya. We utilized standardized psychological assessment tools including the Patient Health Questionnaire, Generalized Anxiety Scale, Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, The World Health Organization- Five Well-Being Index Scale, and the Pandemic Anxiety Scale, to evaluate the psychological wellbeing of the adolescents. A linear regression model was used to evaluate the correlates associated with quality of life, pandemic anxiety, and emotional and behavioural problems among adolescents. Subsequently, a logistic regression model was used to assess factors associated with depression and general anxiety disorders. Variables with a p-value < 0.25 in the univariate model were included in the multivariable regression model. Results The results are based on 797 participants who met the inclusion criteria. We found the prevalence of depression to be relatively higher among out-of-school adolescents at 36.0% compared to school-going adolescents at 20.6%. Furthermore, out-of-school adolescents had significantly higher anxiety scores when compared to their school-going counterparts (27.7% vs 19.1%) respectively. In-school adolescents had a better quality of life scores, lower pandemic anxiety scores, and lower emotional and behavioral problems scores compared to their out-of-school counterparts. Key risk factors associated with depression include; being out-of-school (OR = 1.96 (95% CI 1.33- 2.88) p-value = 0.001), loneliness (OR = 10.68 (95% CI 4.49–22.86) p-value < 0.001), and living in an unsafe neighborhood (OR = 2.24 (95% CI 1.52–3.29) p-value < 0.001). An older age (OR = 1.16 (95% CI 1.03–1.30) p-value = 0.015), being out-of-school (OR = 1.81 (95% CI 1.19–2.77) p-value = 0.006), and living in an unsafe neighborhood (OR = 2.01 (95% CI 1.33–3.04) p-value = 0.001 were key factors associated with anxiety. Furthermore, key factors positively correlated with quality of life include; high socioeconomic status (ß (Std.Err) = 0.58 (0.14) p-value < 0.001, talking to friends often (ß (Std.Err) = 2.32 (0.53) p-value < 0.001, and being close to parents (ß (Std.Err) = 1.37 (0.62) = 0.026. Conclusion Our findings imply that mental health support services targeting adolescents in the country should be prioritized, especially for those who are out-of-school