EU Enlargement. Opportunities and Challenges

The purpose of this paper is twofold. It aims at providing a socio-economic picture of the candidate countries, on the one hand, stressing the large difference in terms of standards of living compared to the poorest EU15 countries and the need for assistance. On the other, the paper wil1 concentrate on the crucial role of financial market development in the process of catching up. Finally, it analyzes two important issues that surround the enlargement debate: capital account liberalization and EMU membership.

Poverty reduction in a refugee-hosting economy: A natural experiment

The role of migration in reducing poverty in developing countries has been investigated mainly from the perspective of migrants and their relatives. This paper exploits the time and spatial variations in the way households in the region of Kagera (Tanzania) traced between 1991 and 2004 have been affected by massive refugee inflows to assess how migration may affect poverty in the hosting communities. Large population inflows from Burundi and Rwanda have improved the welfare of the hosting population, particularly for the poor. Despite the process of structural transformation observed in the refugee-hosting economy, such pro-poor development is mainly explained by improved agricultural labor productivity and income diversification among the poor.Migration, Poverty, Refugees, Structural transformation,

Does inequality make us rebel? A renewed theoretical model applied to South Mexico

Since Collier and Hoeffler (1998, 2004), it has been supported that inequality, measured at national level, does not affect the risk of conflict. Based on a renewed theoretical framework, the purpose of the paper is to explore the role of inequality in localized conflicts. We argue that previous findings might be biased by the myopic nature of cross-country analysis. Consistently with the model, Probit estimations indicate that income inequality measured at municipal level was significant in motivating people to support the rebellion in South Mexico. At this geographical level, we also find an increase in income per capita could exacerbate the risk of conflict in a situation where the rebel leader would have greater incentives to loot the local production compared to the opportunity cost associated with fighting for the worker.rebellion, inequality, income, Mexico

Winners and losers among a refugee-hosting population

refugees, Tanzania migration

The Impact of Weather Anomalies on Migration in sub-Saharan Africa

This paper analyzes the effects of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa. Theoretically, we show how weather anomalies induce rural-urban migration that subsequently triggers international migration. We distinguish two transmission channels, an amenity and an economic geography channel. Empirically, based on annual, cross-country panel data for sub-Saharan Africa, our results suggest that weather anomalies increased internal and international migration through both channels. We estimate that temperature and rainfall anomalies caused a total displacement of 5 million people in net terms during the period 1960-2000, i.e. a minimum of 130’000 people every year. Further weather anomalies, based on IPCC projections on climate change, could lead to an additional annual displacement of 11 million people by the end of the 21st century.International migration, urbanization, rural-urban migration, weather anomalies, sub-Saharan Africa.

The transmission of health across 7 generations in China, 1789-1906

We study the intergenerational transmission of health using linked registered data from China between 1789 and 1906. We first document the intergenerational correlations across 7 generations. We then identify intergenerational causal associations comparing children born from twin mothers or fathers. In particular, we find a strong and persistent intergenerational elasticity between mothers and children of about 0.52. The intergenerational association from fathers is much weaker and seems to be largely driven by genetic factors. The estimates remain relatively stable up to generation 5 and are robust to different checks. Overall, our results highlight the nurturing role of women in explaining the intergenerational transmission of health, stressing the key role played by women in affecting children's health outcomes in developing countries

In utero seasonal food insecurity and cognitive development: Evidence from Ethiopia

Food insecurity is pervasive and highly seasonal in Ethiopia. In this study, we investigate the effect of seasonal food insecurity on child development. Exploiting the Young Lives Ethiopia dataset, we study the impact of in utero exposure to seasonal food insecurity on cognitive development for children of age 8 up to 12. We find that at age 8 in utero exposure to food insecurity shocks negatively, although insignificantly, affects cognitive development. But, at age 12, such exposure significantly reduces cognitive development. In utero exposure to seasonal food insecurity translates into a loss of 0.52 standard deviations in maths achievements score. Exposure during the first and second trimesters of pregnancy are found to have stronger detrimental effects. We also find stronger effects for boys

National or political cake?:the political economy of intergovernmental transfers in Nigeria

Analysing the effect of opportunistic fiscal transfers on the electoral fortune of incumbent politicians can be very difficult due to problems of endogeneity. In this paper, we use oil windfalls as an exogenous variation in the political discretion an incumbent government can exert in rule-based transfers. Exploiting within-state variation between 2007 and 2015 in Nigeria, an increase in VAT transfers induced by higher oil windfalls is found to improve the electoral fortune of an incumbent government. Our results question the role of rule-based transfers as an efficient institutional arrangement in resource-abundant countries

The development push of refugees:evidence from Tanzania

We exploit a 1991–2010 Tanzanian household panel to assess the effects of the temporary refugee inflows originating from Burundi (1993) and Rwanda (1994). We find that the refugee presence has had a persistent and positive impact on the welfare of the local population. We investigate the possible channels of transmission, underscoring the importance of a decrease in transport costs as a key driver of this persistent change in welfare. We interpret these findings as the ability of a temporary shock to induce a persistent shift in the equilibrium through subsequent investments rather than a switch to a new equilibrium in a multiple-equilibrium setting